We have a full slate of Oregon American Meteorological Society meetings planned this Fall. The first is coming up next week:
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED OREGON AMS “PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)” MEETING WITH DR. NATE MANTUA IS JUST TWO WEEKS AWAY!
Spread the word!
The 2012/2013 Oregon AMS season kicks off with a bang in just two weeks.
On Wednesday, September 12th at 7pm Dr. Nate Mantua from the University of Washington will give attendees a great lecture on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI). It is well documented that the long term PDO has reverted to its negative phase and will likely remain there for years to come. The PDO has a direct correlation to Pacific Northwest winter weather. Dr. Mantua will explore in detail what it all means for us this coming winter and beyond. This meeting is free, open to all ages of the general public, including media. Please join the Oregon AMS executive council by showing Dr. Mantua a warm welcome and attend this great meeting.
Feel free to post this notice on other social media forums / outlets.
By the way, the “cool phase” of the PDO is on the right, “warm phase” on the left on the image above. It isn’t necessary to sit that way in the auditorium though.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Check out the visible satellite. Things to note:
1: Leslie out in the Atlantic
2: A hurricane of low clouds off of Baja
3: The huge storm moving into Alaska
4: The persistent convection on the gulf coast…remnants of Isaac?
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis_central+/48h/
6: Clear skies over the land of gravelly plains!
7. Clear skies over the NorthEastern Willamette Valley bananna belt. Yawn. Hope I stay awake ’til model riding season. I miss Rod’s superlative prognostications.
Why the hell does Jesse on Western Weather like to pick on certain members just because they disagree with her or make an observation different then what she likes to hear?
Bwaaahahahaha!!! “Her” HAHAHAHAHA!!! 😆
Thanks for the laugh Kyle, you’re awesome!
Maybe it’s just that time of the month. 😉
9/4/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:96 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
Low: 66 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft) & Cow Canyon (US 9(3110 ft)
Coldest:
High:52 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft)
Low: 26 at Mazama (4590 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
Sand Creek (US 9 (84/27 ) (4525 ft )
First low above 50F in over a week. I can’t believe I got down to 41F just a few mornings ago and now the death ridge is coming back?
Some kind of summer night going on out there. The neighborhood is quiet, stars are out, no wind – perfect!
Oh what a night it was, went for a bike ride right after dark & didn’t make it back till nearly midnight! I REALLY took it all in including a awesome moon rise from the east, lol, I didn’t want to come in/home!!
Low of 49F and a high of 82F. Heat wave yet? Nope.
Mark. Can you shoot mean email explaining why it’s been so dry if this is part of El Nino or not?
Do you think we may be having our El Nino dry weather now and a wet and cold winter instead?
Edit: Shoot me an email. :p
Like he has time to do that…. lol
Mark, Was your 5pm graphic correct for Wed high low? 33 low 85 high ?
I guess not
Thanks for the notification Mark. I will be looking forward to attending, as I have that night off. That really looks interesting, and I hope to see many others there as well to discuss the impending or imploding upcoming weather cycle!
…to discuss the impending or imploding (upcoming WINTER weather cycle)…
Interesting afternoon weather discussion. NWS believes that this warm spell may not be the last hurrah of summer after all as long term models are showing a return to some kind of ridging middle of next week. Long way off but maybe a chance for Salem to get that dry streak record?
You’d think we are under a +PDO since those kinds of PDO’s feature ridging more then normal.
Are we in for the same drought the Midwest had last year?
Will it be this year or next year we feel the water pinch if we have a dry year?
Oh wow! Man, I’d really be heartbroken if we missed out on that dry streak record. Been through a lot longer streaks than this that’s for sure.
Here’s a great article on how the PDO affects salmon fisheries.
And Dr Mantua is right in the middle of it.
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm
This pic looks real similar to the last blog post….huh
Haha! Bruce stole my weather graphic! I’m contacting KOIN lawyers tomorrow…
Or did you both steal from a common source… ‘fess up, Mark!!
Another great day on tap! 69 right now.
9/3/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:93 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
Low: 61 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
Coldest:
High:58 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)
Low: 25 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 58 degrees
CABIN LAKE (86/28 ) (4560 ft )
El Nino…early rain and snow….then nada, nix, nothing….then fog…litlle rain…..no snow…..nada. Offshore flow…split flow….split flow…..high pressure………..Then spring cold for the month of March, then warm and dry…no good model riding. Time to work on those hobbies 🙂 Maybe next year.
not a good idea to doubt winter before it begins lol you never know plus its not a strong el nino closer to neutral phase 🙂
Hahaah!
I forget the exact year, but I remember one La Niña year about 5 years ago when there was a major arctic blast in December and it stayed for most of a week. No snow, but highs in the low-to-mid-30s and lows in the low teens to single digits for days on end. Froze up the waterfalls in the Gorge real good.
Uh, did you mean to say el niño David, otherwise your post doesn’t make a lot of sense. 😊
@Chris — Yes, El Niño. My bad.
Makes perfect sense, Chris.
2009, it was a second year La Niña.
Major arctic outbreak second week of December.
Temps at PDX beginning 12/7:
Hi/Lo
39/28
31/23
32/14
30/12
34/13
34/14
34/30
41/25
Solid sunshine pretty much the whole time… except at night, of course. 😆
There will always be some deviations and exceptions but the averages tend to point to warmer and drier weather for us during an El Nino. And then there’s the dreaded split flow.
W7, I know that it makes sense during la Nina, but not for el niño usually. I think you misread the post.😊
No, I methinks I got it right… what am I missing?
2009-2010 (including the dry cold spell in December 2009) was an EL NINO winter.
Really? That’s not what the Multivariate ENSO Index chart shows on the NOAA site…
Sorry old boy, but the MV Chart you link to shows a big red spike spanning the point on the timeline that says 2010.
Right, for 2010. In 2009, ENSO was negative… It didn’t switch over until
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Ohhhhhh…
My bad. 😕
No, I’s just testing you!
Deviations will always occur, but……averages prevail.
It’s model riding season folks.
Not quite yet, just hold your horses…
About 6-8 weeks to go until that time. Unless we get a RARE October event (I’ve seen one in 19 years), you have to wait until Halloween or just beyond.
August 2012 in Minnehaha (Records since 1996)
Highest High: 99.9, 4th
Lowest Low: 44.5, 24th
Highest Wind: NW 23, 13th+23rd
Most Precip: Trace”, 8th+18th
Total Precip: Trace (Driest August on record, previous driest was 0.01″ in 1998)
Avg High: 81.9
Avg Low: 55.1
Mean: 68.5
My coldest maximum for August 2012 was 73.2. My previous warmest coldest maximum (does that make sense?) was 69.7 back in 1998. In other words this was the first August in my records that it was above 70 every day.
They really said it…
Tropical Storm KIRK
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012
KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.
Ha! I guess Spock was wrong after all…
“It is well documented that the long term PDO has reverted to its negative phase and will likely remain there for years to come. ”
So are we in the cool phase now or the warm phase? I would have guessed that “negative” means cool, but sometimes these things aren’t intuitive.
Negative PDO = Cold phase
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
i love fall and it coming soon
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/autumn-showing-its-colors-in-the-far-north-1/71785
It snows a lot up there, too. Does that mean we’re going to have a lot of snow this winter??
snow already 🙂
http://www.planetski.eu/news/4139