Oregon AMS PDO Meeting Next Week

We have a full slate of Oregon American Meteorological Society meetings planned this Fall.  The first is coming up next week:

HIGHLY ANTICIPATED OREGON AMS “PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)” MEETING WITH DR. NATE MANTUA IS JUST TWO WEEKS AWAY!

 Spread the word!

The 2012/2013 Oregon AMS season kicks off with a bang in just two weeks. 

On Wednesday, September 12th at 7pm Dr. Nate Mantua from the University of Washington will give attendees a great lecture on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI). It is well documented that the long term PDO has reverted to its negative phase and will likely remain there for years to come. The PDO has a direct correlation to Pacific Northwest winter weather. Dr. Mantua will explore in detail what it all means for us this coming winter and beyond. This meeting is free, open to all ages of the general public, including media. Please join the Oregon AMS executive council by showing Dr. Mantua a warm welcome and attend this great meeting.

Feel free to post this notice on other social media forums / outlets.

By the way, the “cool phase” of the PDO is on the right, “warm phase” on the left on the image above.  It isn’t necessary to sit that way in the auditorium though.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

52 Responses to Oregon AMS PDO Meeting Next Week

  1. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Check out the visible satellite. Things to note:

    1: Leslie out in the Atlantic
    2: A hurricane of low clouds off of Baja
    3: The huge storm moving into Alaska
    4: The persistent convection on the gulf coast…remnants of Isaac?

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis_central+/48h/

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      6: Clear skies over the land of gravelly plains!

    • chiefWright (marquam) says:

      7. Clear skies over the NorthEastern Willamette Valley bananna belt. Yawn. Hope I stay awake ’til model riding season. I miss Rod’s superlative prognostications.

  2. Mr Data says:

    Why the hell does Jesse on Western Weather like to pick on certain members just because they disagree with her or make an observation different then what she likes to hear?

  3. bgb41 says:

    9/4/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 66 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft) & Cow Canyon (US 9(3110 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft)
    Low: 26 at Mazama (4590 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    Sand Creek (US 9 (84/27 ) (4525 ft )

    • Mr Data says:

      First low above 50F in over a week. I can’t believe I got down to 41F just a few mornings ago and now the death ridge is coming back?

  4. runrain says:

    Some kind of summer night going on out there. The neighborhood is quiet, stars are out, no wind – perfect!

    • Sifton says:

      Oh what a night it was, went for a bike ride right after dark & didn’t make it back till nearly midnight! I REALLY took it all in including a awesome moon rise from the east, lol, I didn’t want to come in/home!!

  5. Kyle says:

    Low of 49F and a high of 82F. Heat wave yet? Nope.

    Mark. Can you shoot mean email explaining why it’s been so dry if this is part of El Nino or not?

    Do you think we may be having our El Nino dry weather now and a wet and cold winter instead?

  6. PhilinForestGrove says:

    Mark, Was your 5pm graphic correct for Wed high low? 33 low 85 high ?

  7. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Thanks for the notification Mark. I will be looking forward to attending, as I have that night off. That really looks interesting, and I hope to see many others there as well to discuss the impending or imploding upcoming weather cycle!

  8. Runrain says:

    Interesting afternoon weather discussion. NWS believes that this warm spell may not be the last hurrah of summer after all as long term models are showing a return to some kind of ridging middle of next week. Long way off but maybe a chance for Salem to get that dry streak record?

    • Kyle says:

      You’d think we are under a +PDO since those kinds of PDO’s feature ridging more then normal.

      Are we in for the same drought the Midwest had last year?

      Will it be this year or next year we feel the water pinch if we have a dry year?

    • Oh wow! Man, I’d really be heartbroken if we missed out on that dry streak record. Been through a lot longer streaks than this that’s for sure.

  9. Here’s a great article on how the PDO affects salmon fisheries.
    And Dr Mantua is right in the middle of it.

    http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm

  10. alohabb says:

    This pic looks real similar to the last blog post….huh

  11. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Another great day on tap! 69 right now.

  12. bgb41 says:

    9/3/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 61 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)
    Low: 25 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 58 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (86/28 ) (4560 ft )

  13. El Nino…early rain and snow….then nada, nix, nothing….then fog…litlle rain…..no snow…..nada. Offshore flow…split flow….split flow…..high pressure………..Then spring cold for the month of March, then warm and dry…no good model riding. Time to work on those hobbies 🙂 Maybe next year.

    • josh says:

      not a good idea to doubt winter before it begins lol you never know plus its not a strong el nino closer to neutral phase 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah!

    • David B. says:

      I forget the exact year, but I remember one La Niña year about 5 years ago when there was a major arctic blast in December and it stayed for most of a week. No snow, but highs in the low-to-mid-30s and lows in the low teens to single digits for days on end. Froze up the waterfalls in the Gorge real good.

    • Chris s says:

      Uh, did you mean to say el niño David, otherwise your post doesn’t make a lot of sense. 😊

    • David B. says:

      @Chris — Yes, El Niño. My bad.

    • W7ENK says:

      Makes perfect sense, Chris.
      2009, it was a second year La Niña.
      Major arctic outbreak second week of December.

      Temps at PDX beginning 12/7:
      Hi/Lo
      39/28
      31/23
      32/14
      30/12
      34/13
      34/14
      34/30
      41/25

      Solid sunshine pretty much the whole time… except at night, of course. 😆

    • There will always be some deviations and exceptions but the averages tend to point to warmer and drier weather for us during an El Nino. And then there’s the dreaded split flow.

    • Chris s says:

      W7, I know that it makes sense during la Nina, but not for el niño usually. I think you misread the post.😊

    • W7ENK says:

      David B. says:

      “…I remember one La Niña year about 5 years ago when there was a major arctic blast in December and it stayed for most of a week. No snow, but highs in the low-to-mid-30s and lows in the low teens to single digits for days on end…”

      Chris s says:

      “…did you mean to say el niño David…”

      W7ENK says:

      “…2009, it was a second year La Niña…”

      No, I methinks I got it right… what am I missing?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      2009-2010 (including the dry cold spell in December 2009) was an EL NINO winter.

    • W7ENK says:

      Really? That’s not what the Multivariate ENSO Index chart shows on the NOAA site…

    • pdxgeologist says:

      Sorry old boy, but the MV Chart you link to shows a big red spike spanning the point on the timeline that says 2010.

    • W7ENK says:

      Right, for 2010. In 2009, ENSO was negative… It didn’t switch over until

      .
      .
      .
      .

      o_O

      .
      .
      .

      Ohhhhhh… :facepalm:

      My bad. 😕

      No, I’s just testing you! :mrgreen:

    • Deviations will always occur, but……averages prevail.

  14. It’s model riding season folks.

  15. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    August 2012 in Minnehaha (Records since 1996)
    Highest High: 99.9, 4th
    Lowest Low: 44.5, 24th
    Highest Wind: NW 23, 13th+23rd
    Most Precip: Trace”, 8th+18th

    Total Precip: Trace (Driest August on record, previous driest was 0.01″ in 1998)

    Avg High: 81.9
    Avg Low: 55.1
    Mean: 68.5

    My coldest maximum for August 2012 was 73.2. My previous warmest coldest maximum (does that make sense?) was 69.7 back in 1998. In other words this was the first August in my records that it was above 70 every day.

  16. Andy (Carlton) says:

    They really said it…

    Tropical Storm KIRK

    ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
    1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

    KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
    IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
    A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
    RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
    WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
    POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
    FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

  17. Phil in Beaverton says:

    “It is well documented that the long term PDO has reverted to its negative phase and will likely remain there for years to come. ”

    So are we in the cool phase now or the warm phase? I would have guessed that “negative” means cool, but sometimes these things aren’t intuitive.

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