Peak Tropical Storm Season

We are in the peak of the storm season now for hurricanes and tropical storms.   About 1/3 of all named storms each season occur in September. 

So why no hurricanes on the West Coast?  Too cold…the ocean that is.  You need 80 degree or warmer ocean water to keep a tropical cyclone going.  On our side of the continent you have to get down around Cabo San Lucas in Baja California before you find water that warm.  Lots of storms and hurricanes form each summer off the coast of Mexico, but they quickly die as they head north into the colder ocean water.  If a storm is very strong and shoots north very quickly, it CAN make it to Los Angeles or San Diego.  It happened once during the .20th century, the 1939 Long Beach Hurricane.  At landfall it was just a tropical storm.

It’s a different story on the east side of North America.  The warm Gulf Stream ocean current pushes 80 degree water up around Chesapeake Bay in the late summer, allowing storms to move much farther north.

Our weather here in the Pacific Northwest?  Dullsville…

Our chance for showers tomorrow looks quite small as an upper-level disturbance moves by to the north.  If so, then PDX will probably end up dry for the month of August.  Shooting from the hip now, I think we’ve only had a dry August 4 times in our history here.  Usually SOMETHING slips in near the end of the month.  Plus, looking ahead, models are dry and a bit warmer than normal as we head into early September.  Keep watering!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

68 Responses to Peak Tropical Storm Season

  1. Mr Data says:

    Don’t make fun of me for this but is anybody else besides us having ant trouble?

    The last time we have had it this bad was a couple years ago when it got 108F and Dad found a whole bunch of ants in our shed living under a CD case. It was the darnest thing and I still laugh at the thought of it!

    It was equal to Hilton or The Marriot inn at Portland to the ants living in the old CD case.

    This year Pest Control has had to come over numerous times and he has been overloaded with calls but once he comes the ants never come in the same way twice.

    We have observed the behavior of the ants each time it gets unusually warm and it’s no doubt they are getting smarter and more clever on coming in as if they have a chart room with blueprints and say.
    “This is what we know and these are the danger spots in the human dwelling where other ants have vanished so be extra careful in these areas highlighted on this chart here”

    “We have taken advice from AntSurvival dot com guide on how to evade human traps they trick us with.

  2. Mr Data says:

    Be thankful you’re not in Britain suffering the wettest and coldest summer in the Met Office record. (which goes back 100s of years)

    Great Britain is also flitering with frost right now especially The Highlands to the north.
    Southern Britain are close to the freezing mark at night and are using their heaters a lot this month.

    Fuel consumption is up and they better pray for another mild winter or there will be trouble with energy since like here they refuse to add more power plants thanks to the government madness going on.

  3. weathercrazy82 says:

    Full blue moon is beautiful! Last one until July 31st, 2015.

  4. josh says:

    my dew point is pretty low right now 44 should be a fairly chilly night

  5. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I’d love to know the stats for a 3 day weekend where we have wall to wall sunshine? Be it Memorial day, 4th of July, Labor day…ect. It’s gotta be pretty rare here to see little to no morning clouds or rain for the ENTIRE 3 day weekend. I have about 30 lbs. of tomatoes to make salsa and can, just in the last week and have had the biggest heirloom’s with fewest flaws and blemishes this year than the past several, and my pumpkin’s are approaching record size. I won’t be disappointed if this dry weather continues into October.

    • bgb41 says:

      I am guessing there could be some broken/scattered low clouds at times especially the next two mornings.

  6. W7ENK says:

    ♫♩♬♩
    Blue Moon
    Now I’m no longer alone
    Without a dream in my heart
    Without a love of my own
    Blue Moon…
    ♫♩♬♩

    😀

  7. W7ENK says:

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1223 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

    …AUGUST 2012 WILL END WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN PORTLAND…

    WHILE THE SUMMER MONTHS ARE TYPICALLY DRY IN THE PORTLAND AREA…IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCOMMON FOR PORTLAND TO RECEIVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR AN ENTIRE CALENDAR MONTH. AUGUST 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE BOOKS WITH ONLY A TRACE OF RAINFALL…WHICH CAME IN THREE BRIEF SHOWERS ON AUGUST 5TH…6TH…AND 18TH OF THIS YEAR.

    HOW OFTEN DOES THIS HAPPEN…

    SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT PORTLAND AIRPORT BEGINNING IN 1940…THERE HAVE BEEN 13 CALENDAR MONTHS WITH ONLY A TRACE OR LESS OF RAINFALL.

    NO RAIN – JUL 1967

    TRACE RAIN
    SEP 1975
    SEP 1993
    AUG 1955
    AUG 1967
    AUG 1970
    AUG 1998
    AUG 2012 ***
    JUL 1952
    JUL 1958
    JUL 1960
    JUL 1984
    JUL 2003

    AS FOR OUR CURRENT STREAK OF DRY WEATHER…TODAY AUGUST 31 WILL BE THE 42ND DAY IN A ROW WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT PORTLAND AIRPORT. THE CURRENT STREAK IS ONLY TIED FOR 14TH PLACE FOR LONGEST STREAK OF DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN AT PORTLAND AIRPORT. BELOW ARE THE TOP 5 DRY STREAKS…

    NUMBER OF DAYS YEAR DATES
    =========================
    1. 71 DAYS 1967 JUN 23 – SEP 1
    2. 62 DAYS 1984 JUN 30 – AUG 30
    3. 55 DAYS 1960 JUN 20 – AUG 13
    3. 55 DAYS 1952 JUN 30 – AUG 23
    5. 53 DAYS 1980 JUL 5 – AUG 26

    14. 42 DAYS 2012 JUL 21 – AUG 31 AND CONTINUING…

    $$

    WEAGLE/RAMIREZ

    http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&sid=PQR&pil=PNS

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m not very good at data mining. Anyone care to dig through some records and find out how good/bad the winters following each of those summers was for Portland? Could be a valuable analog…

      I know January 2004 was a doozie!

      Might help to compare each of those summers and their following winters to the ENSO index, too.

    • runrain says:

      I remember that 1967 record. I think we had a 107 high in there too.

    • Mr Data says:

      Let’s have a run for the money!

  8. JJ97222 says:

    No rain in sight, 80 degrees can you say perfection! This summer is without a doubt supreme (never have used that word with Portland Weather) All that begging and begging for nice weather paid off. This is the best way to reset before it changes to the dark days. The sunshine is outstanding, three day weekend to boot. All you have fun out there!

  9. W7ENK says:

    Idiot much? :facepalm:

  10. cgavic says:

    We have 45 degs and beautiful sunrise

  11. bgb41 says:

    Here are the results from the AUG 2012 TEMP FREQUENCY CONTEST

    Boydo3 got 2nd place
    W7ENK got 3rd place

  12. bgb41 says:

    8/30/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 58 at LITTLE MCCOY CRE(5080 ft) & Wyeth(97 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft)
    Low: 26 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (87/30 ) (5000 ft )

  13. Two Monday’s next week: 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Only if I get both of them off from work!! 😆

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Yeah, thought that was strange, usually there are 3 Mondays p/wk, but it’s because there is a h-h-h-h-holiday on M-M-M-Monday, Monday… Sorry, couldn’t help it watched w-w-w-way too much Max Headroom back in the day.

  14. runrain says:

    Just read the road from Vista house to Latourell Falls will be closed from October through December for construction. Will this mean no access to the Vista house for east wind events? Maybe Mark has some information?

  15. cgavic says:

    Sunshine in sandy at 1,100 ft and 58 degs.

  16. *BoringOregon* says:

    Who called the warm up !!

  17. bgb41 says:

    8/29/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:88 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 65 at Wyeth(97 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:47 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 25 at Mazama (4590 ft ) & Pine Ridge (4220 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (77/26 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.16″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)
    0.14″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)
    0.13″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  18. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Relatively warm nice and pleasant day today. Perfect cure for a long day @ work, bbqing a 2.72 # T-bone steak, watching How the Universe Works, and enjoying a nice backyard fire pit w/ friends with a nearly full moon rising. AWWWWW….These are the days that will get me through another bout of uncertainty of winter weather, and loooooong rainy days. Much cheaper than therapy, or moving to a different climate. Gotta luv our nice days. (Sometimes) it is worth the wait for our best weather.

  19. AdamInAumsville says:

    You have to go back all the way to July 3rd for measurable precip at KSLE. Anyone know what the dry stretch record is for Salem?

  20. Jeremy says:

    We are experiencing the mythical and recently rare perfect Oregon summer. Enjoy.

  21. Mr Data says:

    What weather patterns are causing it to be so dry?

    What needs to change for a wet late end to summer?

    What storm tracks are best for wetter Septembers?

  22. bgb41 says:

    The 12Z GFS this morning is hinting at a mini hot spell next week with a couple of 90s.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya, Rod Hill agrees with that thought.
      Let’s get rid of this “dirty flow”. Hahaah!

  23. Sifton says:

    A great example of that too that always blows my mind is Hwy.216 eastbound just as your passing tiny Pine Grove, complete desert in front of you & the massive MHNF in your rear view mirror!

  24. W7ENK says:

    Today makes 41 consecutive days at my station with no measurable rainfall. I’ve had 2 Traces since the thunderstorms back on 7/19 and that’s it. This morning almost smelled like rain as I headed to the bus, but there was nothing falling. August 2012 will be my first full month with 0.00″ since I began keeping tabs in October 2009. Honestly, it’s been a nice reprieve from the last 2-1/2 years.

  25. weathercrazy82 says:

    Most people don’t realize how little lightning there is during hurricanes.

    All of the Hollywood movies show an abundance of lightning during hurricanes, but here is reality:

    Hardly any lightning at all:

    http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

    • W7ENK says:

      True, and what people (around here) also don’t realize is, when those reporters are standing there on the beach, wind blowing them off their feet, sign posts wobbling violently over their heads, waves raging behind them, they’re bundled in a hooded jacket, soaking wet and covered in sand… it’s still 90 degrees! I had no idea until I experienced the Southern edge of Hurricane Francis in 2004. Being familiar with our raging storms here with the wind and torrential rain, I guess I just assumed it was 55 degrees, but nope, it’s still 90. At least the “wind chill” compensates for the heat index… actually it doesn’t. It was fun though, swimming in the surf at South Beach at the height of the storm! Well, until Beach Patrol came by in their truck and yelled at us to leave the beach… :mrgreen:

  26. weathercrazy82 says:

    Looks like this will be only my 2nd month in my 17 years of records that has not had measurable precipitation.

    The other month was July of 2003.

  27. Josh says:

    I wonder when we will have some clear chilly nights that give way to some morning fog

    • W7ENK says:

      Those are coming, don’t you worry…

    • David B. says:

      Probably after it rains next. Wet ground can be a major source of moisture for a radiation fog to form, and the ground isn’t wet right now. For the Willamette Valley, my guess would be this will delay the onset of the autumn morning fogs until you get some rain. Up here in Puget Sound country, we have enough open water that the fog should kick off when the air temperature starts getting cool enough.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Every other day from October through February…that should do it.

    • weathercrazy82 says:

      Average days with fog at my station for the last 17 years:

      August: 1
      September: 3
      October: 7
      November: 8
      December: 7
      January: 7
      February: 4

  28. bgb41 says:

    8/28/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:97 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 65 at Rufus(185 ft) & Wyeth(97 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 28 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    Burns Municipal (87/32 ) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.04″ at Newport Municipa(161ft)

  29. First, and we’ve been over 2 months with no measurable rain in The Dalles. I think we will stretch that to 2 1/2 months this year. There’s a reason lavender and cherries and apricots grow so well over here, and it’s the same reason the native vegetation looks remarkably similar to what you find in more “proper” Mediterranean climates. We have a pronounced summer dry season offset by moderate winter rain, much like the lower parts of California or the Med. Basin.

    • David B. says:

      The Dalles really straddles a climactic boundary. On the east edge of town, there’s no trees whatsoever away from water sources; it’s basically desert. On the west edge, it’s a mosaic of open forest, savanna, and grassland.

      When I lived in eastern Washington several decades ago, The Dalles is where it would almost always start spitting rain on winter drives to Portland.

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