Watch Out! Chance for Showers Next 3 Days

Don’t stain your deck, paint outdoor furniture, or leave hay on the ground in Western Oregon or Western Washington after this evening for a few days.  And if your kids start school tomorrow (mine do), it might be a slightly drippy and definitely gray start to the school year.

This evening through Wednesday morning is one of those periods where we have a slight chance for showers, but very little actual rainfall.  If it was spring and we had been wet for the past two weeks we’d say “MOSTLY DRY”.  But since we haven’t had rain in over a month, any sort of rainfall is somewhat exciting I suppose.

Check out the rain forecast from the UW-WRFGFS model from 5pm tonight to 5pm Monday:

Note that no one east of the Coast Range (where most of us live) is forecast to see more than .10″ (not even a soaking), but as a dying front moves inland tonight we could see sprinkles or light showers.  This is not a thunderstorm pattern, just the usual dribbles…and many of us will just remain dry

Here is our RPM model forecast of rainfall for the next 72 hours:

It is similar with very light amounts, mainly late tonight and early tomorrow morning. 

The next 3 days will definitely feel like September again after a brief return of summer yesterday.  But the main point here is that if you occasionally live a bit of “Whiskey Tango” in your front/back yards with all sorts of stuff lingering outside during the dependable dry weather of mid-summer?  It’s time to clean up the place!  I’ll be doing that later today along with you.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

69 Responses to Watch Out! Chance for Showers Next 3 Days

  1. josh says:

    another random question off topic when can the first snows happen up at paradise Mt.Rainier thanks 🙂

    • David B. says:

      I’ve been snowed on in late August at Sunrise. Paradise is 1,000 feet lower, so early to mid September sounds like a good guess.

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Ya, I think the Mississippi River is gonna fill up!
    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-benefits-of-tropical-storms-and.html

  3. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Hurricane Isaac’s 1st landfall Barometric pressure around 970 MB. That’s aroud 28.65″ This storm has been projected to make a second landfall, as it is currently just making landfall over a sandbar at the outh of the Mississippi river. The 1st of several rain bands bringing hurricane force winds to New Orleans will be in about 30 minutes, or around 5:50Pm.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      …update, there was a report that strengthening is still possible, although hurricane hunters’ didn’t indicate anything lower than the 970 mb pressure reading, another report indicated on the ground that the central pressure may be as low as 958mb.

  4. Garron near Washington Square says:

    A nice satellite progression from GOES 13 from the 26th till current for ISAAC. Interesting to watch the eye formation trying to establish itself a couple of times during the last 16 hours.

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Isaac.html

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Chasers are out having fun! Hahaah!
    http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Thanks for that link. I lost all my good ones when I updated my operating system.

  6. one thing i always forget about these Hurricanes…looking at some OBS around the NOLA area… temps in the mid-upper 80’s, DP’s in the upper 70’s… heat indecies of 95-100….. gotta feel wierd being super windy, hot, and pouring rain. must feel like our “south wind” storms in the dead of winter when its a balmy 57 degrees in the middle of the night, haha.

  7. W7ENK says:

    Looks like Isaac makes landfall at Grand Isle, just to the SW of New Orleans, putting the city in the dreaded NE quadrant… Lake Pontchartrain is in the bullseye for maximum storm surge. Not good! 😦

    • weathercrazy82 says:

      But…the storm isn’t that strong.

    • W7ENK says:

      Very true, however, it is moving very slowly (~10mph). Latest thinking is that the storm could even stall over Louisiana.

      Couple this with at least 12-14-18″ of rain NOLA is probably going under.

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      Personally, I think the models are overestimating those rain totals. The storm doesn’t look all that impressive.

    • Tropical storms can be just as damaging as hurricanes if they dump big rains in the right places. Even with Katrina, the winds were not the main cause of the catastrophe. But I do think that with the infrastructure that is now in place in NO, a big flood will be avoided. I hope.

    • W7ENK says:

      This isn’t an issue of models anymore, and rainfall totals from the outer bands over Florida were on par with if not higher than projected by the models. There is A LOT of water suspended in this storm. If it stalls upstream from or even over Southern Louisiana, rainfall totals will be phenomenal, certainly higher than previously projected by the models.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      A lot of times, I’ve noticed that slow moving trop. storms are far worse than the most powerful hurricanes. Once they sit and spin in one area and dump in excess of 18″ of rain, plus tornado activity… I’m sure those that remember the Mitch disaster in Hondouras would agree you can’t judge a tropical entity by its strength. In any case, I hope everyone that can escape, plays it safe this go around in New Orleans and heads inland just in case.

  8. weathercrazy82 says:

    Look at the rapidly forming thunderstorms on the southern portion of the storm:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+6

  9. chiefWright (marquam) says:

    Well, well. 7/100 in the rain guage after yesterday’s drizzle. So why did it seem even dustier in the afternoon?
    Death of summer? Well, if this is fall, bring it on; I love the cool weather when the ground is still dry.

  10. bgb41 says:

    8/27/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:97 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 67 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 27 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (4743 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    Burns Municipal (87/33 ) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.30″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.28″ at AF7U Aumsville(377ft)
    0.27″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)

  11. snodaze says:

    Did Mark do any ‘bit’ on big bad old isaac tonight? Like the ‘lead-in’ suggested.

    • paulbeugene says:

      No point in getting excited about cold air on Oct 9 when there is record breaking cold air forecast two months after that in second week of December.

      I am going to draining plumbing, wrapping pipes tonight!

      Looking forward to arctic season (once north pole freezes over again)

      Looks like our future 951mb low offshore of Newport has sucked the energy out of Isaac, which is why it can’t get organized. In fact, energy from Bolaven, Tembin and Isaac is getting sucked into deep ocean Fujiwara vortex which will then pop up offshore of Cape Blanco Nov 21st.

    • josh says:

      well this should get us in the right mood lol 🙂

    • josh says:

      also snow level Wednesday has not been this low since June

      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

  12. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Sounds like Erik’s spot on. They are calling for this one to hit on the anniversary of Katrina. I feel like this storm’s been around a while, but apparently not a record like Bertha. Just seems like I’ve been hearing about this for more than two weeks I guess.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      …PS, I’ve moved my green house that I built back over the tomatoes as some of the biggest ones are still vulnerable, and I’m using my A/C for the last time probably just because! Next month, it’ll be the heater, and that’s a whole lot more expensive!

    • josh says:

      i hope it can head a little more west once in land to bring a little rain to the drought the heart of the country

  13. Emily Waldman says:

    We had light rain Sunday night in Longview

  14. W7ENK says:

    Only dropped to 59F this morning! Too bad it required clouds to hold the heat in overnight…

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, and not a drop of rain in Milwaukie, either. At 11pm when I was taking out some recyclables, I did NOT happen to notice any sprinkles whatsoever… 😉

    • JJ97222 says:

      Our dome always keeps us a little warmer in the metro area! 60 and toasty when I let the cats out this morning.

  15. weathercrazy82 says:

    No rain here in BG last night.

  16. Pippin says:

    Really dense fog out in Cornelius and .05″ of rain, looks like that front died out around Hillsboro.

  17. JJ97222 says:

    Labor day weekend looks hot 85+ don’t put your summer clothes away yet!

  18. Mr Data says:

    So how about an inversion December and a drippy January with temps either 50 to 55F or 33 to 38F?

    I don’t know why but I think February we are going to have a lot of south wind events.

  19. bgb41 says:

    8/26/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:99 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 68 at IRAWS 38 (LIL TR(5123 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft) & Mary’s Peak(4137 ft)
    Low: 29 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    Baker City Munic (90/36 ) (3373 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.94″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.46″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Whole lotta shaking going on!
    http://earthquaketrack.com/v/la/recent

    • W7ENK says:

      Chilling words:

      “MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER … PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK … WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS … ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!”

    • W7ENK says:

      I only bring this up because:
      Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans 8/29/2005
      Hurricane Issac could make landfall in New Orleans 8/29/2012

      Not good. 😦

    • And a good chunk of the City still living like a third world country.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Podcast:
      [audio src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201208270103.mp3" /]

  21. W7ENK says:

    Breezy to blustery, smells like rain… 😥

  22. Hal in Aims says:

    fairly nice sunset in the east…….don’t see that too often………

  23. W7ENK says:

    No thunderstorms out of this system, huh?

    Lots of albino donkeys gathering off shore… ready to stampede once they reach land???

  24. jasper01 says:

    What no Lees camp rain frcast……..

  25. Mr Data says:

    Don’t forget my question about moving to Central Oregon.

    My parents and I are working at it by fixing our house up to be more sellable if that’s even a word so we can get more money out of it as a lot of houses around here are *dogs* that are not taken care when we looked at them several years ago.

    You can see a lot of the same real estate signs that have been hanging for years around town at least one house on almost every block.

  26. Mr Data says:

    Here is a weather question for you experts about air patterns.

    Why is it every time there is a pattern change me and Mom always have our bones ache and the stronger the change the harsher the ache?

    Will moving to Bend Oregon or Prine-ville help with the aches so we don’t have to take Fish Oil to soothe it?

    It also happens when there is lots of fog too.

    Both of us practically have a Fog O Meter in our bodies which if we are not even thinking about fog we can still feel it come in and the next look out the window when I feel the aches usually proves me right.

  27. vernonia1 says:

    Glad my family was on vacation earlier & left Lake Almanor before this fire exploded to 67,000 acres…

    http://www.inciweb.org/incident/3052/

  28. W7ENK says:

    CRAP… 😥

    • Mr Data says:

      Censor button anybody?

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m sorry Kyle, I didn’t realize “crap” was offensive. I could have used something with a little more weight to it, but I don’t really want Mark to put me on moderation. :mrgreen:

    • Kyle says:

      I was just kidding. Gosh! When I use Internet Explorer like I am I get stuck inside frames while FireFox doesn’t.

      It’s almost as if this site is designed only for FireFox because IE is navigation hell on this site.

    • W7ENK says:

      I know, I’s just playin’! 😛

  29. Call it. Date of Summer’s death, Aug 18th, 2012.

  30. bgb41 says:

    Time to put the hammock away 😦

  31. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! The usual dribbles return!

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