Wake Up…It’s Cold Outside!

Whew, I bet it feels like Fall out there this morning once you step outside.  Temperature across the entire Portland/Vancouver Metro are in the 40s!  Even PDX has made it down to at least 50 degrees.  Your tomatoes aren’t going to like it.  We had dry air, clear skies, and now the increasingly long night hours as we head towards September.  The three added up to our coldest night for most areas since mid June.  Fall can’t be far away, and the weather maps continue to look like Fall.

The cooler than average weather is going to continue, with one summery day on Saturday thrown into the mix.

Today we’ll see plenty of sunshine since the low clouds appear to be a bit scattered and they are moving more north to south versus onshore from west to east.  But with the chilly start we’ll only be in the 70s this afternoon.

Tomorrow we get nice offshore flow, which shows up well on the WRF-GFS 12km cross-section:

See the wind barbs at 12z on 25th (5am Saturday) are easterly from about 1,000′ up to 4,000′ or so.  It’s still summer, so that allows our temperature to jump well into the 80s.  Sunday should be okay too, although it’s been a question mark since the ECMWF has been shoving an upper-level trough closer to us a bit more quickly.  No other model has been doing so.  If we get lucky then, one more nice day Sunday, just significantly cooler with no offshore flow.

Alright, then we’re going to continue with cooler than normal temps again because upper-level troughing will linger through the foreseeable future.  Heres the ensemble forecast of 500mb heights from the GFS from last night’s 00z run:

then next Wednesday, the 29th with the ECMFW ensembles:

then 10 days out, Sunday of Labor Day weekend, the trough is still there!

The main message?  We have returned to the weather pattern we saw the first half of the summer; cooler and cloudier than normal.  So what about rain?  An upper level trough or a series of them nearby should give us rain at some point in late August.  Models have been slow to push any rain into here.  The GFS has been hinting at some light shower either Monday or Wednesday.  The ECMWF points to later Tuesday or Wednesday.  We’ll see.

By the way, I’m headed home today after a good 3 day weather conference in Boston.  Last night was fun at Fenway Park…perfect weather.  Learned lots about the weather and broadcasting world…I’ll do a posting on that next week.  Enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

23 Responses to Wake Up…It’s Cold Outside!

  1. bgb41 says:

    8/25/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:94 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 62 at SQUAW PEAK(4964 ft)

    High:56 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft)
    Low: 26 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 58 degrees
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (86/28 ) (3575 ft )

  2. *BoringOregon* says:

    Looks like a little bit of a warm up next weekend ?

  3. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    43.4 here this am

  4. bgb41 says:

    Deadline to enter will be Sept 2nd at midnight.
    Fill out the below form to submit your guesses for next months weather at Portland Airport


    • Mr Data says:

      First half cool with weak clipper storms second half warm and dry with another shot at record heat making the Global Warming alarmist on here having a field day.

  5. bgb41 says:

    8/24/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:90 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 60 at IRAWS 37 (DISAST(5314 ft)

    High:52 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 25 at CABIN LAKE (4560 ft ) & Mazama (4590 ft ) & DESCHUTES PORTAB (4743 ft ) & Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (82/25 ) (4560 ft )

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    KHIO: 77F/42F

    Can’t ask for a better day! The breeze feels so nice 🙂

  7. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    75F degrees with a nice ‘ocean like’ NW breeze..

    This is the definition of a “perfect” day.

  8. *BoringOregon* says:

    Hey mark, did u get a sandwich from a side walk vendor at the park they are the best.!!! lol watching the hood to coast runners go by my house looks like they are sweating it out in the sun got to love car honking and yelling.

  9. Garron near Washington Square says:

    a very appropriate end to my Vegas vacation, come home to lows in the 40’s. I’ve been to Vegas at least a two dozen times, even during the winter months I have never seen so many people in rain gear and umbrellas as I did on this trip! According to what BGB posted, Las Vegas broke a 75 yr record for rainfall, and I believe that record lows were broken on the 23rd when it dropped to a bone chilling 63 degrees. One kid was swept away in the Los Angeles style river system down there when he decided to test the waters flow with his foot, very sad. As cars were being pulled through the deluged streets around Las Vegas blvd, people still tried to navigate through the 5+ foot deep puddles, typical. The monsoonal moisture was a training type rain event, where areas as close as Lake Mead 25 miles to the SE hardly saw a drop, while Las Vegas received as much as 2+ ” most of it falling in places within a 2-3 hour period. Locals were celebrating in the streets on ski do’s and water skis like we do here during our rare snow events on snow skis. Really lucky we got to go down there and expierence such a rare event and so much lightning wit this one. Back to sunny ol’ PDX to finish my vacation, not too bad either…

  10. SilentReader says:

    I was just commenting to my wife how I have noticed the much longer shadows off the trees. fall is a coming. Should be another fun model riding later fall/winter. I have more fun watching you guys/gals argue the chances of cold/snow versus the actual weather half the time. 🙂 let the b*tch’n begin.

  11. Low of 44.3 here this am.

  12. W7ENK says:

    You think it’s cold up there, I spent the night about 15 miles East of Chiloquin last night… It’s 38 right now, but there was light frost across the bottom of the windshield an hour ago!


  13. cgavic says:

    48 degs and sunshine in sandy

  14. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    43.8 for a low here, my coldest low for my two August’s up here.

    First snows in Banff overnight as well. Fall is definitely here!

  15. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    An overnight low of 43.8° here – a chilly but sunny morning. Lots of condensation on my single-pane double-hung windows as a result.

  16. Mr Data says:

    If these clear nights become the trend I wonder what it will be like comes winter since we lost out last year and the year before.

  17. Mr Data says:

    Unlike most of the year this trough should be a dry one from what I’ve been reading on the other website. Meaning dry clear nights will be the rule allowing for tons of low temps at night and chilly to warm days in the afternoon.

    This year and last year has been REALLY hard to have clearing for any decent amount of time to at night to allow temps to drop like a rock.

    By months end according to the GFS and Euro we are looking at having – departures in night time temps at least.

  18. Chilly morning here. Here is local temp map:

  19. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    44 here according to my optimistic (cold bias) thermometer. At this rate, the leaves will be tricked into thinking it’s fall very soon.

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