A Cool End To August

Today was a cool day, with high temps only in the mid 70s in the metro area.  We haven’t been this cool in about two weeks.

Get used to it, all models tell us that we are set for a pretty long period of cooler than average temperatures.  Here are two examples showing the temperature around 5,000′ elevation (celsius) from the ECWMF and GFS models.  They both show the numerous runs of each model (ensembles) with each run out to the next 14-16 days shown as a black line.  The thick green line is the average for this time of year.  The red is the average of all the ensembles (the black lines).

First, the ECMWF:

Then the GFS:

Several things stick out; most obvious is the nearly unanimous agreement by the GFS ensembles that we are entering at least a 10 day period of cooler than average temps.   But the ECMWF isn’t quite as sure, showing huge variation (from hot to chilly) beginning this weekend. 

What does look  extremely unlikely over the next week is real hot weather or a bunch of rain.  So the boring summer weather will continue, but the lightning over the weekend was interesting at least.

I’m at the yearly American Meteorological Society Broadcasters Conference this week.  This year it’s in downtown Boston, a real historic place. 

Today was a training day by our weather graphics vendor, WSI.  They are located up in Andover, Massachusetts.  A very green place, but they drive like crazy people.

This evening included a walk over to that great piece of American history…Cheers, the bar of 1980s sitcom fame.  The outside looks the same, but definitelydifferent on the inside.  The TV show only used the outside shots, none inside.

Tomorrow the conference begins and it goes through Friday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

56 Responses to A Cool End To August

  1. bgb41 says:

    8/23/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 66 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at Government Camp(5000 ft)
    Low: 28 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (4743 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (82/33 ) (4560 ft )
    Sand Creek (US 9 (79/30) (4525 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.08″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)

  2. Temp: 64.4
    Dewpoint: 36
    Depending on low clouds it could be a very chilly Fall like night and morning with some crisp to it. I welcome this and hope it occurs.

  3. sweet timelapse of some “rolling” clouds. looks like your looking up at the ocean surface…

  4. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Couldn’t quite crack 70 today…high of 69.3.

    Right now it’s 64 with a NW wind gusting close to 20 mph and I heard an ice cream truck. Really?

    • Mikel says:

      This is early. I think we are in for some very strong winds this winter seems to be setting up that way. Batten down the hatches

  5. wow. dewpoints are plummeting. dp down to 41 up here. gonna be a chilly night if the low clouds hold off.

  6. josh says:


    cool vid of driving through flash flood down in vegas

  7. Mr Data says:

    Why is it that I have bad luck when voicing my opinions. I am always either too early or too late to the point the discussion is irrelevant.

    I can’t seem to time it just right my whole life.

    It’s as if my body is out of synch with everybody else.

  8. Today’s 12z ECMWF operational run is MUCH further west with Isaac.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Landfall southwestern Louisiana and then the circulation weakens over the eastern half of Texas.

    Definitely a westward shift in more model members too. http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_model.gif

    Ensembles showing this as well. http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_ensmodel.gif

  9. bgb41 says:

    8/22/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 68 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft)
    Low: 28 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (4743 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    CHEMULT PORTABLE (84/31 ) (4775 ft )

  10. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I just love when politics enters the board… NOT

    Picked first red tomato today and the corn is tasseling after less than 7 weeks.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Rush Limbaugh Claims Hurricane Isaac Is an Obama Conspiracy to Cancel GOP Convention
    http://www.politicususa.com/rush-limbaugh-claims-hurricane-obama-conspiracy-cancel-gop-convention.html

    I’m still searching for the right smart-@$$ sequence of words to string together, but I just don’t think that’s possible… o_O

    I just… Uhmmm… I… Uhhh… Hmm… Really??? I mean, WHAT the actual HELL?!?

    I don’t know, I really don’t! At first I thought this was a parody or a spoof like The Onion, but no, these are his ACTUAL words… The fact that the Right Wing worships this guy’s every word is so disturbing, it honestly makes me feel like crying inside!

    I’m sorry, but this IS weather related, so…

    • W7ENK says:

      Hey, like I said, this IS weather related, and though it’s politically charged, so is the GW issue, and that one gets a pass all the time on this board!

    • wwm says:

      hahaha you REALLY believe he was serious? hahahahahahahaha
      he has a very sarcastic sense of humor, in fact I say this respectfully, it is much like your own.

    • chris says:

      yeah im with you wwm

    • W7ENK says:

      Of course I believe he’s being serious, why wouldn’t I? Now, if Jon Stewart or Steven Colbert said something like this I’d be LMAO, because they’re comedians. Rush is not a comedian. In fact, as one of the most prominent mouthpieces for the Republican propaganda machine, he purports himself to be dead serious, always. If any of that was sarcasm, then it was lost on me, and I’m a veteran expert in the stuff, as you know!

      Next you’re going to tell me his 2006 rag on Michael J. Fox and his Parkinson’s was just a joke, too…?

    • Wait… What? LOLs …. It is time everyone shuts off listening to that bozo.

    • wwm says:

      Ummm…no I wouldn’t say that about Michael J. Fox because that really isn’t something to joke about. My grandma actually died from Parkinsons. But as is almost always the case when you start verbally throwing things out it hits somebody, I would simply ask that you be careful and think before you speak regardless of the topic.

      There is a pretty big difference in the two topics (parkinsons and Rush saying what he said about the hurricane) You have to remember the media/democrats joked about the same thing with Bush and Katrina so that is probably why he is making that same type of comment. It is obvious your political leanings and thats fine but lets keep a respectful tone even though we disagree in a huge way on that topic. Besides this is a weather blog not political. I know I am in the minority on that issue but I don’t care we are both Americans and can politely agree to disagree without throwing verbal handgrenades.

    • The fact is anyone linked to politics especially radio personalities shouldn’t be claiming a person made up a Tropical Storm even if it was a joke. I was thinking the other day that something like this was gonna happen 😦

    • Sifton says:

      I for 1 LOVE Rush!!! (the band) Now how bout these pesky clouds!?!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I like listening to Rush Limbaugh…think he IS a comedian. Hahaah! We need a storm.

    • snodaze says:

      “At first I thought this was a parody or a spoof like The Onion, but no, these are his ACTUAL words…”

      ————-

      Yet in the audio clip the word “conspiracy” is never used? (and it looks like he’s absolutely right if you ‘hear’ what he’s saying. — He’s talking about the media ‘tools’.

      Brilliant! – Could be a word you could use W7. (I think I’ve even seen NWS bashing around this blog before?) LOL.

    • Am I missing something? I don’t see comedian as part of Rush Limbaugh’s job on his wiki page.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rush_Limbaugh

    • chris says:

      i don’t remember needing a degree to tell jokes or have to professionally come out saying i am also comedian

    • IceCold says:

      Fool….and I am not talking about Rush!

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, if nothing else, this garnered a decent bit of conversation on what would have otherwise been a 3 comment day — i.e. yesterday?

      FWIW, my political “leanings” have nothing to do with the fact that I absolutely loathe Rush Limbaugh. Simply put, the man disgusts me and his voice grates on my humanity.

      Oh, and just for the record: Over the course of this conversation, one “verbal hand grenade” was thrown, but it wasn’t thrown by me… ^^

  12. bgb41 says:

    ***RAINFALL RECORD TODAY AT LAS VEGAS, NV****
    Today August 22nd is the 2nd wettest calendar day of all-time at McCarran Airport in Las Vegas. Here is the official report from NWS Las Vegas.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=vef&sid=VEF&pil=PNS

  13. bgb41 says:

    1pm flooding report from Las Vegas:

    2,08″ of rain in Henderson, Nevada last 6 hours
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=lkn&sid=HND

  14. cgavic says:

    Sunny at 65 in sandy (1,100 ft)

  15. josh says:

    random question when can are first windstorms happen thanks 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      For a second, I thought that was Black Rock, NV and I’s like, “Oh no!!” That’d certainly fill the playa with water, turning it into a huge muddy mess for Burning Man in a couple weeks.

      I’m hoping to go down there Sept 20-23 for the 2012 BALLS Rocketry weekend again this year. THAT’s some crazy fun right there! 😆 Two years ago, the team I was with reached their goal of 150,000 feet, but their rocket went laterally… and even after a two hour box-grid search in a CAP plane, we never found it. 😕 Still fun though!

  16. cgavic says:

    58 and sunny in sandy (1,100 ft)

  17. bgb41 says:

    39 degrees in Yacolt this morning. My leaves are turning on many trees out here.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=C6182&table=1&banner=off

  18. Have a good time, Mark.

    Sure was nice to wake up to no morning low clouds today, but I do see a patch off to my north-northeast towards the Columbia River, so they may try to form yet. I think we’re done with the heat personally, in fact I am saying no more 90 degree days. 87-88 is the best we will do the rest of the year.

  19. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Cooler morning of August so far with 47 degrees.

  20. Epic Earthquake warning for pacific northwest by Frankie MacDonald. 😆

  21. bgb41 says:

    8/21/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:97 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 71 at Blalock(280 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:60 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft)
    Low: 36 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (86/39 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.05″ at DW0462 Umatilla(1273ft)

  22. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

    A very nice cool (dare I say chilly?) NW breeze here tonight. Temp already down to 63.2. Refreshing after a lot of warm nights.

    I’ve been looking at the Euro the last couple of days and it seems like it is bouncing around a bit. Seems like the GFS has done a pretty good job this summer.

    Also, per Steve Pierce, and the UW, July’s PDO was again negative with a reading -1.52. The negative PDO regime looks to be in full swing.

    • Mr Data says:

      According to Western Weather the El Nino is having a “rough ride” ahead for it.

      We are into unknown territory and I don’t believe ANY analog will work.

  23. *BoringOregon* says:

    Haha, I have been there you should go to the bar where they yell in make fun of you. A’lot of good stores to shop at there you should go to the big park they have out there real nice !!

  24. runrain says:

    Make sure you do the Freedom Trail, Mark!

  25. W7ENK says:

    As long as it’s sunny down at Crater Lake on Thursday, I don’t care if it’s 20 degrees…

  26. bgb41 says:

    Its a chilly evening in Clark County. Skies have cleared and some 40s may appear in the colder spots tomorrow morning.

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