A Cool End To August

August 21, 2012

Today was a cool day, with high temps only in the mid 70s in the metro area.  We haven’t been this cool in about two weeks.

Get used to it, all models tell us that we are set for a pretty long period of cooler than average temperatures.  Here are two examples showing the temperature around 5,000′ elevation (celsius) from the ECWMF and GFS models.  They both show the numerous runs of each model (ensembles) with each run out to the next 14-16 days shown as a black line.  The thick green line is the average for this time of year.  The red is the average of all the ensembles (the black lines).

First, the ECMWF:

Then the GFS:

Several things stick out; most obvious is the nearly unanimous agreement by the GFS ensembles that we are entering at least a 10 day period of cooler than average temps.   But the ECMWF isn’t quite as sure, showing huge variation (from hot to chilly) beginning this weekend. 

What does look  extremely unlikely over the next week is real hot weather or a bunch of rain.  So the boring summer weather will continue, but the lightning over the weekend was interesting at least.

I’m at the yearly American Meteorological Society Broadcasters Conference this week.  This year it’s in downtown Boston, a real historic place. 

Today was a training day by our weather graphics vendor, WSI.  They are located up in Andover, Massachusetts.  A very green place, but they drive like crazy people.

This evening included a walk over to that great piece of American history…Cheers, the bar of 1980s sitcom fame.  The outside looks the same, but definitelydifferent on the inside.  The TV show only used the outside shots, none inside.

Tomorrow the conference begins and it goes through Friday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen