Vacation Time

Probably no new posts until Saturday, the 4th of August.  I’m on vacation this week and most of next week.  Plus, well, there’s nothing happening. 

I don’t see a thunderstorm pattern over the next week so it’s all about the strength of onshore flow and morning cloud cover extent.  Not a professionally inspiring period so a good time to be gone anyway.

It appears we go from warmer than average weather for a couple of days to another round of troughiness and cooler weather Friday through sometime next week.  We won’t hit 90 in July for the 2nd consecutive year.  That’s really weird.  In fact it’s never happened in Portland’s history (since 1940 at least).

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

126 Responses to Vacation Time

  1. 00z GFS suggests 96-100 Saturday and 93-96 Sunday now with perhaps 90-93 Monday. ECMWF looks even hotter and I believe I see SE flow aloft. Hmmm….

    • 00z WRF-GFS CAPE Model
      Definitely liking this. We may see the early morning or mid morning AFD mentioning convective potential.

    • SREF is a bit too short-term as it only runs out to Sunday midday, but it does show a nice spike in negative LI values across southwest and southern Oregon.

    • Josh Smith south Salem Elev 500 ft says:

      Hey rob.

      Liking your feedback on the maps and runs. I really think this weekend possibly starting Thursday its gonna get pretty darn hot down here in Salem. Every morning since Sunday they have said marine layer over night but it has just stayed by the coast. Looking at tonight’s satellite on katu . Shows the same thing. What you thinking the forecast for Salem will be?…. 85-100? Thanks. Keep up the great work.

  2. bgb41 says:

    8/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:99 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 70 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    High:55 at TIDEWATER(2035 ft)
    Low: 32 at CW1043 La Pine (4203 ft ) & Mazama (4590 ft ) & Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (86/34 ) (5330 ft )
    CHEMULT PORTABLE (86/34) (4775 ft)
    CABIN LAKE (86/34) (4560 ft)

  3. BIG MOON tonite!! Take a look…

  4. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie, OR] July 2012

    * Pink rainfall amount indicates thunderstorm.

    • Paltry on both temp and precip. for July. Would like to see the precip stay down in Aug. (unless it’s a t-storm downpour) and get some toasty high temps. That would say SUMMER to me 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      July 2011
      Avg High 79.1F
      Avg Low 54.0F
      MAX 89.9 on 07/24/2011
      MIN 46.8 on 07/22/2011
      Rainfall: 1.28″

      July 2012
      Avg High 79.7F
      Avg Low 56.4F
      Rainfall: 0.25
      MAX 89.2 on 07/08/2012
      MIN 45.9 on 07/04/2012

      The Average High temperature was 0.6F warmer than last year.
      The Average Low temperature was 2.4F warmer than last year.
      The overall Average temperature was 1.5F warmer than last year.
      The MAX High was 0.7F cooler than last year.
      The MIN Low was 0.9F cooler than last year.

      There was 1.03″ less rainfall than last year.

  5. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    We are within 72 hours of the modeled heat, so this won’t be a bust. GFS has been very consistent over several days suggesting somewhere between 96-100 degrees come Saturday. I think it is looking to be a safe bet that we score somewhere between 2-4 days at or above 90 in this upcoming hot spell.

    • W7ENK says:

      First official “heat wave” since 2009.

      Now, can we get a genuine snow event this winter???

    • Chris s says:

      W7, Salem had 5 straight days at 90+ aug 13th-17th 2010. Also July 7th thru 9th was mid 90’s for Salem. So as far as valley is concerned no.

    • Chris s says:

      Also, last year, from aug 20th-27th, we had 5 days in the 6 days in the 90’s with a upper 80’s and 79 as the other 2 days. This is for Salem of course.😄

    • Chris s says:

      * should say 6 days, not the mess I typed. 😃

    • W7ENK says:

      I was talking about PDX, I guess I should have clarified.
      My bad.

    • josh says:

      that would be funny right when it turn el nino and you expect less watch us get more at least one can hope

  6. runrain says:

    Kptv going with 93 only on Sat. Of course, Mark is on vacation so we really don’t have the expert view on it. NWS is going with 96.

  7. As I mentioned earlier and suspected could happen if models did not back off the NWS is now bumping temps well up into the 90’s maybe even 100. Well the ECMWF has 850mb 24c, so that coupled with light offshore flow could do the trick.

  8. Jeff Raetz says:

    Averages\Extremes for the month of July 2012

    Average temperature = 66.1°F
    Average humidity = 70%
    Average dewpoint = 55.2°F
    Average barometer = 29.995 in.
    Average windspeed = 1.7 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.2 mph
    Average direction = 322° ( NW)
    Rainfall for month = 0.252 in. (Average is .35”)
    Rainfall for year = 34.181 in. (Most rainfall at this time in the year ever)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.010 in on day 15 at time 10:56
    Maximum temperature = 88.1°F on day 08 at time 17:20 (Lowest High temp for July on record)
    Minimum temperature = 44.2°F on day 04 at time 05:30 (Lowest Low temp for July on record)
    Maximum humidity = 97% on day 04 at time 06:49
    Minimum humidity = 26% on day 04 at time 17:17
    Maximum dewpoint = 65.2°F on day 20 at time 00:55
    Minimum dewpoint = 35.9°F on day 04 at time 16:21
    Maximum pressure = 30.23 in. on day 23 at time 09:11
    Minimum pressure = 29.72 in. on day 16 at time 18:00
    Maximum windspeed = 10.4 mph from 203°(SSW) on day 20 at time 15:04
    Maximum gust speed = 17.3 mph from 180°( S ) on day 20 at time 16:51
    Maximum heat index = 87.3°F on day 08 at time 17:04

    Avg daily max temp :77.5°F
    Avg daily min temp :55.7°F
    Total windrun = 1196.2miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 44.2 on day 04 at time 05:23
    Record daily rain = .11” on day 01
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.06” on day 15 at time 10:56
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 75.6 on day 08
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 53.8 on day 04
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 61.2 on day 22
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 71.2 on day 08

    Daily rain totals
    00.11 in. on day 1
    00.01 in. on day 2
    00.04 in. on day 3
    00.07 in. on day 15
    00.02 in. on day 20

    *Records since October 2008*

  9. W7ENK says:

    All this talk about an impending heat wave, I just have this overwhelming fear that this is going turn out to be another bust… one of those situations — like in winter when the arctic boundary blasts through Bellingham, but due to some unforeseen and unexpected variable, it stalls out around Chehalis/Centralia, only this time — where the thermal trough stalls out around Woodburn/Wilsonville, Eugene and Salem flirt with 100 degrees, but a marine push or something (Arctic blast?) holds the hot air back just enough to suppress the temp at PDX to 89.

    Maybe that’s just several winters in a row of witnessing PNW weather’s “failure-to-launch” syndrome telling me I should know better…? 😕

    God, how I wish it would hit 100 degrees!! I’ve been keeping records at my station for almost 3 years now, and I have yet to record one triple-digit number. I do, however, have a single digit number — 7F on December (5th?), 2009.

  10. Models aren’t backing off, in fact 6z/12z and other guidance suggests 850mb peak around 23c with offshore flow and temps soaring to 98-100 F. We’ll see about that, but yeah models say this may occur. Also may be seeing t-storm potential too more likely Cascades east, but it is worth watching.

  11. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Brian, how about posting the results of the July guessing game?

  12. weathercrazy82 says:

    July 2012 in Battle Ground
    Highest High: 84.9, 7th
    Lowest Low: 42.3, 4th
    Highest Wind: WNW 22, 23rd
    Most Precip: 0.19″, 3rd

    Total Precip: 0.33″

    Avg High: 75.4
    Avg Low: 52.9
    Mean: 64.2

  13. weathercrazy82 says:

    The GFS continues the idea of brief heat…and if nothing else warms it up! Then it’s back to normal Monday-?

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