Watch Out For Weekend Showers & A Chilly Sunday

I’ve seen lots of fields with freshly mowed hay drying in the sun the last two days.  Get it taken care of today or tomorrow morning; or it may get wet!  

Showers are definitely possible this weekend, in fact anytime from Saturday evening through Monday morning in NW Oregon and SW Washington.  An upper level disturbance is sitting in Western Washington this morning and slides south right over Mt. Hood by Saturday afternoon.  The flow around that will cause thunderstorms to break out over the S. Washington and N. Oregon Cascades Saturday afternoon.  They MAY move to the west out over the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area.  Look at what happened last night over the western part of Puget Sound!

This could happen Saturday afternoon or night over us…so the risk of something getting wet is definitely there.

As that moves east Saturday night, strong onshore flow develops down near the surface. That means thick low clouds could take much of Sunday to dissipate; likely even some drizzle in the far eastern suburbs.

SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST/CLOUDIEST DAY WE’VE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF…maybe only 70-75 in the metro area.

A 2nd low dropping in Monday keeps temps below average Monday (75-80) then it’s back to more reasonable summer weather again.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

70 Responses to Watch Out For Weekend Showers & A Chilly Sunday

  1. weathercrazy82 says:

    Last night’s sunset:

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      Nice photos. I especially like the ones of Crown Point and the #28 barge and sunset ones. 🙂

  2. weathercrazy82 says:

    Cloudy with some sprinkles right now. Mild though, with a temp of 59.

  3. bgb41 says:

    7/14/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 70 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 36 at Mazama (4590 ft ) & Chemult (US 97 M (4750 ft ) & Crescent (4462 ft ) & Diamond Lake (Or (5260 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (96/48 ) (1389 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.37″ at La Grande/Union(2717ft)

  4. JJ97222 says:

    Beautiful warm night out no storms over Portland tonight. I had my fill during the day on Friday in Chicago. The hail came down so hard that I had to pull off the highway and head to the suburbs to hold up for a while and have lunch while the storm past. Let me tell these storms took down some 6 to 8 inch branches to alot of trees in the area. The wind must have been blowing 60 miles hour or more in spots. They had alot clean up to do this weekend. The hail stones were about the size of a quarter. Biggest ones I have seen.

  5. runrain says:

    Easy way to change the seven-day: simply slide the days to the left and keep the same temps up there!

  6. runrain says:

    Energy looks like it’s increasing to the north east so maybe if these hold together we’ll be looking at some fun this evening.

  7. Aloha rainshadow says:

    999
    WFUS55 KBOI 142150
    TORBOI
    ORC001-045-142215-
    /O.NEW.KBOI.TO.W.0001.120714T2150Z-120714T2215Z/

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
    350 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
      SOUTH CENTRAL BAKER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OREGON…
      NORTH CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON…

    * UNTIL 415 PM MDT/315 PM PDT/.

    * AT 341 PM MDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
      SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
      NORTHWEST OF IRONSIDE…OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF BAKER…MOVING EAST AT
      20 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WILL BE NEAR…
      IRONSIDE AND ELDORADO PASS AROUND 350 PM MDT…
      BALDY MOUNTAIN AROUND 410 PM MDT…
      MALHEUR CITY…BRIDGEPORT AND MALHEUR RESERVOIR AROUND 415 PM MDT.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
    WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
    AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
    INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
    COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
    SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE
    NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
    SATURDAY EVENING/1000 PM PDT SATURDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
    AND EASTERN OREGON.

    &&

    LAT…LON 4458 11771 4435 11759 4425 11805 4444 11815
    TIME…MOT…LOC 2150Z 250DEG 17KT 4438

  8. W7ENK says:

    Sorry folks, looks like thunderstorms are all developing in the wrong spots and moving in the wrong direction. Portland gets ripped off today. 😦

    Better luck next time.

    • Brad says:

      It’s still a little early to pull the plug. Give it a few more hours, then you can call bust.

    • Yup. The t-storm threat is over for PDX. Everything is staying along the east slopes of the WA cascades.

    • W7ENK says:

      Okay, so it’s now a few hours later… Can I call it a bust now, or should we just stick with the original bust I called several hours ago when I saw everything staying/moving away from Portland??

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NOW you can call it a bust….but wait…lets do it again! Hahaah!

      National Weather Service Portland or
      315 am PDT sun Jul 15 2012

      The forecast models migrate the low center slowly south during the day Monday…with the exact positioning a bit in question at this point. If the low center is down toward the southern end of the forecast area as expected…there will be potential for a few thunderstorms mainly in the S Washington and north or Cascades. Model instability parameters are not very
      impressive as low level temperatures are fairly cool and moisture is still limited. However…the fact that the steering flow turns southerly and a bit easterly indicates that there is a chance.
      The better chance for thunderstorm activity looks to be Tuesday. As the low pushes further south and west…the upper level flow will turn increasingly southerly and easterly across the region with increasing middle level moisture. Low level temperatures are also expected to be a
      bit warmer. With the easterly component to the flow aloft…any
      storms that pop up along the Cascades may drift into the Willamette Valley.

      Gonna have to get out the Magic 8-Ball!

  9. *BoringOregon* says:

    Looks like what ever was over mt hood is in Estacada now. Sun is coming back out warming up again?

  10. cgavic says:

    Thunderstorm over mt. Hood. Party to mostly cloudy skies for mountain festival in sandy. 84

    No moisture.

    • I am hearing the thunder…it is windy and 71 in Boring. It changed very quickly outside. I hope it fizzles out on the mountain. I don’t want to deal with freaked out dogs.

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:

    It’s time for a some Albino Donkeys to break away from the herd and Stray into our neighborhoods!

    LOOK! They’re gonna come down the gorge!


  12. paulbeugene says:

    Looks like cells developing over Mt Hood Nat Forest…may have some thunder in Gresham/Sandy by ? 2-3 pm or so. Also might have some cells develop NE of Clark County/WA. Would not be surprised either if something develops over Washington County mid afternoon.
    Eugene won’t get thunder.

    • paulbeugene says:

      Arctic air is flowing through Fraser…now down to Longview but has not made any further progress S…oh wait this is summer….that only happens in winter with this pattern.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! Hold that thought for a few months.

    • I smell rain….looks like it might make over Mt. Hood. Sky is getting dark to the east and there is a definite cool breeze that wasn’t there an hour ago. I was hoping to get more done outside this afternoon…. 😦

    • Emily Waldman says:

      I smelled rain in Longview! Got sun & clouds where’s the albino donkeys! Getting robbed! All the light show stayed north & west in The county to west & in Lewis County to the north last night!

  13. Benjamin Monjay says:

    Seeing a rediculous amount of flashes to the North right now. Some of them are very bright. It is amazing that these storms are over Tacoma!

  14. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Lightning off to the west now too!! Unfortunately my view to the west is obstructed. My friend in Tacoma said they’ve had lightning all day. Would be nice if we can get that here…

  15. bgb41 says:

    7/13/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:99 at NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 78 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft)
    Low: 39 at SUMMIT LAKE (5600 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (91/41 ) (4560 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.42″ at Joseph State Air(4120ft)

  16. weathercrazy82 says:

    The lightning to the north is nice!

  17. seen about a dozen flashes to the north.

  18. Emily Waldman says:

    The lightning map that Mark posted shows many strikes over Liberty Lake, WA near the ID border! My folks said the lightning was incredible!

  19. Storm freaks,

    I have been discussing in great detail with Chris Callais the current situation regarding storm chances. We both agreed that we cannot remember a ULL tracking in this manner during July. We also cannot recall when a ULL moving inland actually intensified, as this one has. Typically they fill in, weaken, and begin to lose characteristics.Looking at recent Mesoscale Analysis indicates a good unstable atmosphere above 7000ft. There should be enough dynamics, shear, and mid-level moisture to allow for storm chances pretty much all night and gradually working southward.

    I also see a very compact and strong vort on the 400-250mb charts. Checking local HRRR shows LI remaining negative all day tomorrow with ample MUCAPE/SB for some storms. Shear is forecast to increase gradually overnight-tomorrow upwards of 45-55kts over PDX metro. I also do believe we could see some brief Severe Thunderstorm Warnings even this evening-overnight north of Kelso. In fact, storms are exploding near Olympia right now as Chris expected(Nice call on that one.) There is a chance for the next 18-24 hours to be quite memorable for locations WEST of the Cascades north of Salem.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like memorable weather!

      Latest from the
      National Weather Service Portland or
      840 am PDT Sat Jul 14 2012

      Short term…an upper low centered just south of Portland this
      morning will move southeastward today and tonight with wrap around showers maintaining a threat for convection. Most of the convection is elevated this morning…but expect an increase of activity with surface heating this afternoon. As the low drifts to the east today…it is expected lightning activity will follow…affecting portions of SW Washington and northwest Oregon zones north of Marion/Polk
      counties… flow around the low may continue to feed
      thunderstorms over northwest Oregon and possibly into the Willamette Valley.

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      Quite memorable indeed. I watered my grass for the first time.

  20. David B says:

    Nice morning thundershower came through Downtown Seattle around 10:30 AM today. There’s now a dark cloud and rumbling to the north.

  21. might get some lightning to go along with the Rainier Days Fireworks on the Columbia tomorrow night? that would be f-in sweeeet!

  22. Emily Waldman says:

    We about to get in Longview, WA clouds looking pretty unstable from the SW! Itching for a TST! Any ideas! From what I’ve been reading online this could go all night!

    • W7ENK says:

      Nearest storm to you is in the South Sound, running a line from Lakewood to Shelton, main core crossed over Anderson Island, clipping the North tips of Olympia. Some filling/development/expansion toward the immediate SE of the main cell, tracking toward Olympia proper.

    • Emily Waldman says:

      The stuff from South Sound is moving south!

    • W7ENK says:

      Stuff over the South Sound is moving E to W, wrapping around the top of the center of the ULL stuck somewhere around Centralia.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Around Centralia is about the same place those arctic fronts stall during the winter. It seems to be how it works around here. 🙂

    • Mr Data says:

      That’s what I’ve always mentioned but I get ignored. :p

      I used to hope somebody would fill me in why but reality always knows how to kick me in the teeth yet these types of storms are like a bag of dorritos. Have one and you have to have them all! 🙂

  23. JJ97222 says:

    Nice thunderstorm right over O’Hare delayed my flight for an hour neat show we don’t see this stuff in the Portland Area lots o lightning!!!! Great Storms today.

  24. W7ENK says:

    Solar Flare UPDATE – Friday, 13 JUL 2012:

    X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 09:17 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.

    The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation. The UV pulse partially ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Ireland and Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

    [video src="http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/12jul12/ipad/x1p4.m4v" /]

    Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks “S1” on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify.

    REVISED FORECAST: The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday’s X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud’s expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.

  25. LongtimeLurker says:

    Yay! Thanks for the good news, Mark! Looking forward to cooler weather. 🙂

  26. cgavic says:

    O/night low 57. Sun this morning

  27. W7ENK says:

    Impressive line of thunderstorms over Everett, moving West and building South into Seattle.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ATX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    LOTS of lightning!

    More vigorous than anyone was expecting, really…. This bodes well for PDX later!

    • W7ENK says:

      Bellevue getting nailed, moving West toward Seattle.

      Reports of large hail, unknown size.

    • W7ENK says:

      Based on movement as seen on radar, center of circulation looks to be S of Spanaway, just E of Yelm. Decent returns moving S off Capitol Peak (SW of Oly). Thunder being reported near Centralia. Large hail reported N end of Vashon Island, moving due W, S side of Bremerton now under the gun.

    • W7ENK says:

      KIRO TV met reporting storm tops at 30,000 ft. Impressive for around here!

      Center of Low appears to be moving SSW, which would put us in a favorable spot for some good action tomorrow! (Thanks Chris for that info!) 🙂

  28. Sifton says:

    My ‘summer’ clock is the same also, sleepin the midnightish to 6-7AM & sometimes even earlier when we get a nice hot streak. Then by Halloween it’s back to gettin my 8 hrs. & sleeping in. Believe me I count the days till the middle of Fall, but now it sounds like I can get a few more zzzzz’s this weekend with the new update unfortunately………..

  29. W7ENK says:

    I have a sneaking hunch that all the thunderstorm activity will remain North and West of the main Portland metro area… unfortunately.

  30. Mark Nelsen says:

    When I’m on vacation I revert to “get up early and go to bed early”. My wife hates it, but I hate to waste good daylight in the summer. Yesterday I was up at 6:45! But dead tired by 10pm.

  31. Mark..you’re up so early on a Friday on vacation…why? I hope to see a light show at the Timbers game tomorrow night, I missed the last one!

%d bloggers like this: