Happy Fourth of July! Real Summer Arriving

The saying is “Summer begins after the 4th of July” west of the Cascades.  Some years we get short summery spells, then brief cool spells in between all through June and early July.  In those years there is no real defined change.

This year will be one of those “switch gets flipped to SUMMER” years:

1.  I have no idea when we’ll see rain again; long-range models have no rain or just a sprinkle over the next two weeks.

2.  Hot ridging over the center of the country shifts to its usual summertime position farther west over the Rockies and Intermountain region from this weekend until further notice.

3.  This leaves the “big” summer forecast challenge: how much morning cloudiness makes it inland and does that mean it’ll be 78 or 88?

Tonight will be quite chilly since we still have a cool airmass in place and clear skies…lots of 40s!  But the midsummer sun will warm us quickly into the 60s for those of you headed out to late morning parades.

I’ll be at the Corbett Fun Fest Wednesday evening.  I have a one hour shift in the evening at the Elephant Ear booth (sugar!), plus some sort of minor emcee duty on the stage around the same time.  Fireworks are the 3rd largest display in the Portland Metro area; they tend to go 30 minutes or so!  Just $5 gets you in the gate in case you’re looking for a nice location to watch the fireworks from.  The full moon should be rising over Mt. Hood at the same time too.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

 

 

52 Responses to Happy Fourth of July! Real Summer Arriving

  1. This blog would pick up if there were a death ridge coming or widespread valley thunderstorms….

  2. Heading over to the Ochocos for a few days camping. Wondering about those pesky Tstorms…

  3. JJ97222 says:

    Slow blog today everbody must be enjoying the weather outside or buying box fans at Walmart? Thats it, time to leave the office and soak up some heat with the kids!

    • JJ97222 says:

      That is true but isn”t weather like this the polar oppisite of say a six inch snow day in Portland in the winter where there will be 350 blogs a day? I guess people like cold rather than warm days, I like them both.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Usage goes WAY down from May-September, even October is usually pretty quiet.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

      Same for thunderstorms.. December 2008 and June 2009 were mighty active periods.. lol when we began tracking thunderstorms on the 4th, everybody came out of nowhere providing radar images, pictures, spotter reports, instability parameters!! 🙂 lol

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    If we can grasp some convection out of this period of warmth here in the Valleys… that’d be great!!

  5. Sifton says:

    Nice 7 day!

    • runrain says:

      According to the 7 day, there will be no temperature at all for the next week. Would this be the end of the world, then?

    • Sifton says:

      Yeah I thought it was a “fill in the blank” with your own personal wish temps game, I think I won!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Having some “issues” after our upgrade Monday…can you tell?

    • JJ97222 says:

      Mark what ever your doing if it ain’t broke dont’t fix it, this weather is perfect, it is to nice to work today!

  6. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    I bought two pairs of sunglasses today. I think that says enough about my opinion on the current weather we’re having. 😀

  7. Word is that a certain t-storm expert is back on the blog. I wonder who that could be.

  8. bgb41 says:

    7/5/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 67 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 32 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft ) & Pine Ridge (4220 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (85/33 ) (4560 ft )

  9. Mr Data says:

    Sorry if it seems messy. I’ve edited it several times such as putting the Mt Baker ones together and my favorite link right afterwards.

    .

  10. Mr Data says:

    … Record low temperature set at Troutdale Oregon…

    a record low temperature of 45 degrees was set at Troutdale
    yesterday. This ties the old record of 45 set in 1949.

    Despite the heatwave going on backeast there has been numerous cold records falling across the USA which is not being talked about.

    I’ll put the Mt Baker ones together from latest to earliest.

    Mt Baker WA – 5 to 9 inches of snow expected today
    By Robert On July 3, 2012 · Leave a Comment

    Snow showers likely.
    Continue Reading →

    Mount Bachelor open for skiing this weekend
    By Robert On July 1, 2012 · 6 Comments

    “A heat wave in the U.S. during summer is not weird no matter how much the lamestream media squeals about it,
    Continue Reading →

    No the blog owner didn’t make a typo. The (Lamestream) Media as he calls it really does squeal about these things any chance they can get as it ups their ratings.

    Even though the media is liberal bias it has to do more with being misled into fame and power over accuracy rather then an actual conspiracy.

    Here is my favorite one. http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/massive-number-record-lows-summer/

    Summery taken from website.

    While the mainstream media screamed about the number of record highs during the last WEEK, they somehow forgot to mention the massive number of records lows.
    Continue Reading → On the website it is a hyperlink to the rest of the article which is pretty incredible with the amount of record lows.

    Sadly Oregon is barley on the list. 😦

    Here are a few statistics borrowed. Please visit his site for the rest as I love reading his cold news articles.

    AL Centreville, 6 miles SW of Wed, 27 Jun 2012 58 61 in 1962

    CA Redding Ap Wed, 27 Jun 2012 52 57 in 1968

    FL Daytona Beach Intl Ap Wed, 27 Jun 2012 66 68 in 1938

    FL Jacksonville Intl Ap Wed, 27 Jun 2012 66 67 in 1957

    FL Mayo Wed, 27 Jun 2012 60 61 in 1933

    While they may not seem fantastic since it’s summer time the amount of record lows are staggering despite the stubborn heatwave going on.

    Here is a few more.
    http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/double-whammy-90-percent-michigan-apple-loss/

    “Most of the peach crop too.” “This is the worst natural disaster to strike Michigan’s agricultural industry in more than 50 years,”
    Continue Reading →

    Did you catch that? In more then 50 years he said which means fruit prices this summer is going to soar thru the roof especially with California and Florida crops being severely damaged..

    I am not looking forwards to that as I love fruit! 😦

    http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/freak-summer-snowfall-northen-finland/

    “Incredibly rare” cold in New Zealand
    By Robert On June 26, 2012 · 15 Comments

    Heavy snow falls and ice have closed the Lewis Pass and Invercargill airport,
    Continue Reading →

    Southern New Zealand is pretty mild actually.

    • Kyle, you need to broaden your horizons. Cherry picking news of a cold bias is just as prejudice as only focusing on warm issues.
      For example have you looked at the current condition of the Arctic ice?
      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
      Anthony Watts and Ice Age Now go out of their way to try to distract us of the general condition of the current world climate, whether man made or naturally caused. It is getting warmer. period.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree. Kyle…posting long rantings from another website isn’t necessary. For example, the fruit loss in Michigan was due to extremely WARM winter and warmest spring on record back east, Then a (normal) frost wiped out the fruit because the blossoms came out so incredibly early. And someone spins that into global cooling???

      And to make such a ridiculous statement as “A heat wave in the U.S. during summer is not weird no matter how much the lamestream media squeals about it” during the current heat wave???

      Hmmm, many states have seen ALL TIME STATE HIGHS recorded (100+ years) recently.

      It’s all about distractions isn’t it? Oh look, it’s a bit chilly in 3 states in the west and Florida, what heat wave?

      Look at data from just the last week of June:
      Daily record highs: 1,943
      Daily record lows: 275

      And All-Time June Records:
      Monthly record highs: 572
      Monthly record lows: 1

      Should attention should be paid to the heat wave or a brief cold spell?

  11. runrain says:

    It’s quite dreamy, almost unreal to look at the current seven-day forecast! If this keeps up, the veggies are going to be spectacular this year. I just finished staining the deck and I’m primed for some major outdoor summer evening refreshment time!

  12. weathercrazy82 says:

    My corn is up! I know it seems later but I wanted to wait until the pouring rains stopped. I planted it one week and one day ago.

  13. alohabb says:

    Talk about flipping a switch! Holy Sunscreen Batman!!

  14. JJ97222 says:

    Weekend looks mmmm toasty! We wont have to wait till August for 90’s this year. Perfect!

  15. bgb41 says:

    7/4/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:92 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 57 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 27 at TEPEE DRAW (4735 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (86/29 ) (5000 ft )

  16. runrain says:

    Phoenix high temp of 91 deg today was the second “coolest” high temp ever for July 4th.

  17. Mr Data says:

    Astoria Oregon tied the record low of 45F set just last year. (scratches head)

  18. runrain says:

    KGW has a couple 90° days for us next week. Actually, two 93° days to be exact.

  19. oldwxwatcher says:

    And aren’t we all glad that our warm/hot weather doesn’t include the things that hit the Midwest and East Coast, like this:

  20. JJ97222 says:

    Great weather full steam into summer all that blue in the sky is awsome, I love it when Mark says not much rain in sight! Let the fun begin! Happy Fourth!

  21. weathercrazy82 says:

    June 2012 in Minnehaha

    Highest High: 83.5, 16th
    Lowest Low: 41.2, 6th
    Highest Wind: WSW 27, 5th
    Most Precip: 0.58, 4th

    Total Precip: 3.54″ (New June record)

    Avg High: 68.9
    Avg Low: 50.1
    Mean: 59.5

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Have a happy Independence Day!

  23. Had a low of 38 this morning. Looking forward to all the sunshine ahead.

  24. weathercrazy82 says:

    A low of 42 this morning, very chilly.

  25. paulbeugene says:

    If ECMWF is correct we may hit triple digits F by around July 13, 850mb temps exceeding 25C over Willamette Valley, before another trough drops in from the NW.
    GFS not so hot, keeping ridge centered at or E of Great Basin. Dewpoints may creep up over time..into 60s.

  26. MamaReen says:

    Someone has been playing with the graphics on the 7 day…100 today? 🙂

    • runrain says:

      Ha ha! Must be April Fools Day! Of course, if that were true, that would read 70 below zero!

  27. runrain says:

    NWS has 90 for us on Sunday.

  28. Sifton says:

    Nice out you left for yourself with #3 Mark!
    Happy 4th………….

  29. runrain says:

    Happy 236th, everyone! (Seems like just yesterday…)

  30. Scott in Salem (550' South Salem hills) says:

    Check out this weather forecast…..bahahahaha:

  31. I am seeing hints on tonight’s 00z ECMWF of a much hotter regime taking hold with 594dm+ heights and 850mb +26c to +30c invading northern California creeping up into southern Oregon. Upper Low bit too close in the Gulf of Alaska in my opinion for that to build north into the Willamette Valley.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

  32. bgb41 says:

    7/3/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:87 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 66 at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:37 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 31 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Bly Mountain (Or (75/33 ) (4920 ft )
    Bly Mountain (Or (75/33) (4920 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.70″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.63″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)
    0.61″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)

  33. Karl Bonner says:

    So is it climatologically normal for an upper-level ridge to start off further east in early summer (June), then shift westward during the month of July?

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