“Real” Summer May Be Less Than A Week Away!

We are just 3 weeks away from the warmest temperatures of the year (the average):

From July 19th to August 13th the average high temp in Portland is 82 degrees.  After that it starts to fall off again.

Today’s high of 77 was perfectly normal, although the warm temperature along with almost totally cloudy skies was a bit strange.  We’ve got another warm night on the way too; last night it only dropped to 62 here in Portland and tonight should be similar.

Tomorrow the cold front offshore right now moves inland over us.  There is plenty of moisture to work with…precipitable water was 1.17″ on the Salem sounding this evening.  That’s much higher than normal.  Lifted Index goes below zero tomorrow afternoon with even some decent CAPE west of the Cascades too.  So the chance for convection is pretty good, but there doesn’t appear to be a big trigger for widespread thunderstorms.  It’ll be interesting to see if we do get some decent downpours.  Our RPM shows a few heavy showers/t’storms midday and into the afternoon.

After tomorrow, Sunday and Monday look quite nice, just leftover clouds through a good part of Sunday.

A bit of a change the past 48 hours; models are saying that our “real” summer will be here in about a week.  Look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb temp chart:

Notice the operational (blue) ECMWF goes above average (green line) on the 5th of July, the ensemble mean (red) slightly later.  What really adds credibility to a major change on the way?  Almost every single ensemble member (there are 51) is above average after next Friday.  And we’ve seen several runs like this now.  The ECMWF would imply 90 degree temperatures are likely by next weekend.

The 00z GFS is keeping the warm weather theme going as well.  Same story with the ensemble average going above normal next Friday (the 6th).  Notice this model too has 850mb temps up in the +15 to +20 degree range by next weekend.  Next weekend may be very summery!

This does occasionally happen; if you’ve lived here long you know that sometimes summer arrives like a “switch has suddenly been turned on”.  And this would be the time of the year for that to happen.

OR, just like in winter, models may be having trouble with the persistent pattern of cool troughs close by and will revert back to that pattern in the next 48 hours…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

48 Responses to “Real” Summer May Be Less Than A Week Away!

  1. Phil in Beaverton says:

    I much prefer our cool, cloudy weather over what most of the rest of the country is experiencing. Yesterday, the weather was quite pleasant for doing yard work.

    How long before the rest of the country figures out they should fly out to Seattle or Portland to cool off? Huge influx of climate refugees? (of course, right about when that happens we’ll get a heat wave)

  2. runrain says:

    Hope everyone’s enjoying their 80° Monday ha ha!

    • JJ97222 says:

      The gray weather continues, all this depressing weather sure does bolster the news 8 article on how the vitamin d deficiency in the Northwest is truely unhealthy and causes wieght gain! Also being led down the garden path of improving weather in the 7 day forecast also must not help in mental stability. Pass the Dorito”s……….

    • Mr Data says:

      Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. (licks lips about the Doritos)

  3. W7ENK says:

    High temperatures at PDX over the weekend that were supposed to be…

    Saturday 6/29: 104°F
    Sunday 7/1: 107°F

    109°F today. 58 now, think we’ll make it??


  4. Pete says:

    Interesting piece in the New York Times about the decline in the number of water-monitoring stations around the world in the past 25 years or so.


  5. bgb41 says:

    7/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:89 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 70 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    High:49 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 40 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (81/50 ) (4560 ft )
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (80/49) (4360 ft)
    DW0460 Sisters (79/48) (3251 ft)
    BROWNS WELL (79/48) (4565 ft)
    Redmond, Roberts (77/46) (3077 ft)
    SHITIKE CREEK NE (76/45) (3580 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.49″ at CW4176 Aloha(210ft)
    0.44″ at DW5586 Beavercre(1407ft)
    0.43″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)

  6. bgb41 says:

    Click below link to submit your guess for this months weather.


  7. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie, OR] June 2012

    * Pink rainfall amount indicates thunderstorm.
    ** 3 x Trace rainfall is logged as 0.01″

  8. http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    Averages\Extremes for the month of June 2012

    Average temperature = 59.8°F (Lowest average temp in June ever)
    Average humidity = 73%
    Average dewpoint = 50.4°F
    Average barometer = 29.987 in.
    Average windspeed = 1.6 mph
    Average gustspeed = 2.7 mph
    Average direction = 244° (WSW)
    Rainfall for month = 4.020 in. (Average is 2.47”)
    Rainfall for year = 33.929 in. (Most rainfall at this time in the year ever)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.060 in on day 08 at time 16:07
    Maximum temperature = 85.4°F on day 16 at time 16:53
    Minimum temperature = 41.2°F on day 14 at time 04:26 (Lowest low in June ever)
    Maximum humidity = 98% on day 27 at time 07:28
    Minimum humidity = 27% on day 11 at time 14:02
    Maximum dewpoint = 64.4°F on day 16 at time 19:46
    Minimum dewpoint = 36.2°F on day 05 at time 15:59
    Maximum pressure = 30.28 in. on day 09 at time 23:24
    Minimum pressure = 29.68 in. on day 04 at time 17:44
    Maximum windspeed = 15.0 mph from 180°( S ) on day 08 at time 12:52
    Maximum gust speed = 20.7 mph from 180°( S ) on day 08 at time 12:52
    Maximum heat index = 85.6°F on day 16 at time 17:05

    Avg daily max temp :69.8°F
    Avg daily min temp :50.6°F
    Total windrun = 1135.3miles

    Daily rain totals
    00.12 in. on day 1
    00.06 in. on day 2
    00.95 in. on day 4
    00.40 in. on day 5
    00.40 in. on day 7
    00.40 in. on day 8
    00.01 in. on day 9
    00.13 in. on day 12
    00.01 in. on day 13
    00.16 in. on day 18
    00.01 in. on day 19
    00.10 in. on day 22
    00.34 in. on day 23
    00.21 in. on day 24
    00.32 in. on day 26
    00.01 in. on day 27
    00.35 in. on day 30

    *Records since October 2008*

  9. The switch is coming.

  10. Jbpdx says:

    I said on the 1st of March that bitching season is here. Who knew it would still be the case on the 1st of July. For months it’s been ‘wait just a few more days it’ll get better’ then we get one or two nice days then back to 10+ days of crap. I’m sure the sky will clear tonight at about 7:30. Unbelievable. The slugs and ghouls can have this. Signing off from New Juneau. Adios!

  11. David B says:

    We’ll see, indeed. Right now, I’m not going to put any faith in those modeled forecasts unless they keep holding over the next three to four days. We’ve been burned by long-range forecasts too many times in recent months.

    • JJ97222 says:

      You are so right with major puddles on the patio furniture from last nights full-fledged rain strorm who would believe we will be 86 degrees this coming weekend. David is right just watch the nice weather fizzle again. The trend crappy summers continues not much hope left at this point

    • muttville1 says:

      Indeed David, + you know it’s bad when other professional Mets. can’t even comfortably say what ’12’ hours out or so will be!!

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry folks, today’s12z GFS shot an arrow right through the heart of our summer. I hope you like an incessant marine layer with some drizzle and no sun.

    • bgb41 says:

      00Z brought back the heat. That 12z was a major outlier this morning. 90 is coming

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      One more good reason to rely more on the ECMWF, other than the fact that it’s a better model generally. Riding the 6 hourly GFS runs can drive a man (or woman) nuts.

  12. weathercrazy82 says:

    June 2012 in Battle Ground
    Highest High: 82.8, 16th
    Lowest Low: 39.3, 6th
    Highest Wind: W 29, 4th
    Most Precip: 0.68″, 23rd

    Total Precip: 4.08″

    Avg High: 67.4
    Avg Low: 48.8
    Mean: 58.1

  13. bgb41 says:

    7/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:98 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft)
    Low: 66 at Arlington(449 ft)

    High:51 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 37 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    MCDERMITT 26N (95/47 ) (4464 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.55″ at DW9210 Bend(3615ft)

  14. JJ97222 says:

    Bottom line the summer weather outside sucks right now rain rain and more rain this is horrible please stop this is the worst. Today is my 52nd birthday in OREGON. You can’t even enjoy your patio for your own party can you believe we are stuck in the house again. Time for another straight shot.

    • We only have to endure 4 more days of this then the warm up begins 🙂

    • Well,…..being a third gen Oregonian I am still wondering why the hell I’m still on the west side. I’ve got 6 more years on you and I’m still pounding my head against this lousy moldy wall of denial 🙂 Must be those next couple months of unrivaled summer that keeps us here!

    • JJ97222 says:

      I just texted my nieghbor who is camping out tonight he and his son are Floating in their tent everything is soaked. They are down in a North Salem camp ground for civil war recreation i told him to keep his powder dry and his response was a four letter word with a you after it. See what weather does to people amazing!

  15. halverbk says:

    It could be worse. Friends of friends that are on vacation while power is probably out at their home near DC. That’s going to be one ripe kitchen when they come back.

    Enjoy the link. Looks pretty bad back there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVEPvXBEOSE&feature=player_embedded

    Just returned from camping outside of Ashland where I said “we are in the clear” about midweek. Had 8 hours of drizzle/light rain Thursday night during a 10% chance window per the NWS in Medford. Next day the wind came up which wasn’t forecast until it happened which ended up tipping over and twisting the canopy and shelter and camping kitchen. There was another complete miss earlier in the week too. 103 last time we made this trip so I will take the coolish weather over that.

  16. Sheila says:

    why is the Portland Nexrad radar down so much these days? Maintenance or what?

  17. weathercrazy82 says:

    Absolutely pouring rain here now. Huge drop size too. Happy 4th weekend # 1:)

  18. Mr Data says:

    The forecast was for afternoon sunshine and it’s 5.05PM and just now having hints of BINOVC weather.

    But then again maybe they meant it really was sunny but the clouds just covered it up so to us the observer we couldn’t see it! 🙂

    See the weather forecast was right. We just couldn’t see the sun because of the clouds but there’s ALWAYS afternoon sunshine in Oregon.

    Oregon The Sunshine State. 🙂

  19. JJ97222 says:

    With June behind us thank God maybe we will get some nice weather more than 1 or 2 days at a time, at least we had 2 nice weeks in May to get or gardens soil temps up to provide a nice garden. This June again was hard on the Strawberry crops and the Rose Festival activities. Lets hope we have a full 40 days of nice 80+ weather to meet our average for a change. Afterall having a nice June here is about like having a December like 68 and 08, once in blue moon. Just look out your window indoorsports continue on this summer day.

  20. umpire says:

    Yahoo, right on schedule, summer starts on the 5th of July. Great weather for the Waterfront Blues Festival!

  21. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Rain and the NOAA radar is down, KGW does not seem to be working either.

  22. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Frankly I’m fine with mid 70 degree weather! No complaining here.

  23. I prefer heat waves in September, because of cool nights. But I agree Mark, it does seem like someone flips a switch and we hit a summer pattern right around the 4th of July or a few days after. After today, it looks nice. Enjoy everyone have a great weekend!

  24. bgb41 says:

    6/29/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:90 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & MCDERMITT 26N(4464 ft) & Umatilla(190 ft)
    Low: 68 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    High:51 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 39 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft ) & FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (85/39 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.43″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)

  25. W7ENK says:

    Wait, what??? Whoa whoa WHOA… Hold on a second…

    Portland’s MAX average high temp has been 81F since, like, forever… What the crap do you mean, 82 degrees?!? Something is wrong!

    Also, I still maintain that PDX will not reach 90 degrees in 2012.

    • bgb41 says:

      Last year PDX switched to the 1981-2010 period for their daily climate data. This is the warmest 30 year period of record to date for Portland. The 81 degree max you are referring to was under the old 1971-2000 period of record at PDX.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Brian is right, I think it was 81 the past 10 years. But in the 1990s (1961-1990 averages) it was only 79 or 80 if I recall correctly.

  26. I’m in on the “switch”…..
    Summer arrives, gardens blossom.
    Coolers are filling
    Sun burns are common.
    People are fishing
    shade trees for wishing.
    Gray dim is forgotten
    things have stopped rottin’
    A warm breath inhaling
    cold winds are waning….
    And no one is complaining

  27. bgb41 says:

    This is my favorite time of year. Heat in late June and July is so much better than late summer heat like we had last year. The long days make it much more enjoyable.

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