Historic Heat on the Great Plains

Look at all the ALL-TIME record high temps set the past two days.  Dodge City’s records go all the way back before 1880, so this would eclipse the Great Dust Bowl heatwaves in the 1930s too.  And it appears the weather pattern will not change significantly in the next week or so.  Models show a large upper-level ridge covering almost the entire USA.  This is after the warmest spring ever recorded…bad news for the whole country.  So maybe our 65-80 degree days aren’t that bad eh?

There have been hints in the past 24 hours that we might see a change after about July 6th-7th.  Especially on the 12z ECMWF.  Note the rising 850mb ensemble temps from that time onward:

But of course we’re talking 10 days away…LaLa Land as we like to say in the business.  The 00z GFS chart is a bit closer to average (the light green line) through the first 1/3 of July:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

33 Responses to Historic Heat on the Great Plains

  1. ashley watson says:

    the big question with our strange weather the last 3 years is why are we having these warm winters and cool springs and summers??? we need things to flip.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Looks like a gradual warmup in stock for next week. Seeing what most of the rest of the country has the 80,s don’t seem so bad. I expect as we get into the 2nd week on July onward we’ll see our share of hot weather as well. However today seems rather pleasant. For those of you who want a heatwave of epic proportions remember the saying ” be careful what you wish for, you may get it “. Happy 4th everybody.

  3. W7ENK says:

    Supposed to hit 99 in Portland today. As of noon, both those digits are upside-down. We’ve got a ways to go yet…


    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      That would’ve been one serious heat wave. I’m gonna use the idea jbpdx brought up and pretend the skies are clear (and it’s hot)! Must stay hydrated. Bottoms up!

  4. weathercrazy82 says:

    66 and cloudy here. I’m wondering if I can break the 4″ amount for rainfall between today and tomorrow, it looks iffy.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like much more impressive negative lifted index values! Hahaah!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    310 am PDT Friday Jun 29 2012

    Models are now showing much more impressive negative lifted index values for Saturday afternoon and evening…and are now showing a decent thunderstorm threat over the entire forecast area. Went ahead and updated the forecast to include a threat for convective activity everywhere except along the coast…especially since it will be during the peak heating time.

  6. Let’s get that ridge west about 1,000 miles!

  7. Rob says:

    Summery, hot weather coming to the Pacific Northwest? Tonight’s 00z ECMWF says “YES!”
    I hope it rings true.

  8. bgb41 says:

    6/28/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:97 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & Ladd Canyon at C(2900 ft)
    Low: 60 at Cow Canyon (US 9(3110 ft)

    High:53 at Mary’s Peak(4137 ft)
    Low: 30 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (88/37 ) (3575 ft )
    RED BUTTE (86/35) (4460 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.14″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  9. Mr Data says:

    I almost forgot to ask: Which sections of the Gulf of Mexico has the most differences from normal SST?

    I’ll check back late tonight as I am fighting a sore throat right now and will rest a lot.

  10. Mr Data says:

    Hey! Has anybody checked out the temps to the Gulf of Mexico lately?

    Are the SST running hotter then average? If so then how long?

    I really need to know. Thanks. 🙂

  11. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I’d love a heat wave, as long as the approach to it isn’t 60-65 and rainy, then 95-105 two days later. Give me a week of yesterdays, then BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. Jbpdx says:

    Absolutely completely cloudy/overcast right now. NWS, weather.com, Accu calling it clear/sunny. Huh.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I think it was well advertised that clouds would show up this afternoon wasn’t it?

    • W7ENK says:

      I think JB needs to call them and notify them, because obviously they haven’t looked out their window, but he has, and that’s a problem…

    • Mr Data says:

      But they may not have windows to look out of!

    • W7ENK says:

      Now that would just be plain silly!

    • Mr Data says:

      Actually now that I think abouot it. I saw a picture tour of the NWS office and they don’t have very much windows and the windows they do are covered up with blinds.

      You’d think their office would be almost nothing BUT windows for unlimited visibility but you get better views from ATC over at PDX then the NWS does.

    • jbpdx says:

      I guess when 3 out of every 4 days here are cloudy you have to claim overcast skies are actually clear.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Always a problem when weather forecasters forget the value of the GOLU model!

  13. W7ENK says:

    Starting today, Portland is supposed to reach a high of 95F, which begins our Summer 2012 heatwave of biblical proportions.

    Jeremy KF7NGT

    95 99 104 107 109 107 102 106 100 87

    Starting June 28th. Strong offshore flow, massive high pressure, crystal clear skies, long weekend, BBQ, cold beer, fishing pole, cool high mountain lake…

    Monsoonal moisture from the south gives us a light show the evening of the 4th along with a couple of fat dusty rain drops. The dying t-boomers drift to the NE and dissipate over the valley. With cloud cover Portland sees first 80 degree low.

  14. weathercrazy82 says:

    Sunny for now but there are high clouds moving in now as well. Up to 60 degrees.

  15. bgb41 says:

    6/27/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:86 at NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft) & Umatilla(190 ft)
    Low: 54 at DW2682 Portland(213 ft)

    High:51 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 23 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 60 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (83/23 ) (5000 ft )

  16. W7ENK says:

    And borderline historic cold here…


  17. bgb41 says:

    That encouraging news. Lets hope the Greenland block doesn’t re-assert itself again after next week.

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