2nd Coolest June in 20 Years; Cool Continues Into Early July

Hmmm, seems like I’ve posted on this subject recently…yes, that’s it.  Now I remember…another cool spring and another chilly June.  I created this chart this evening:

It shows our current PDX June temperature (5 days left) running at 60.5 degrees, eclipsed only by 2010 since the very cold June of 1991.  We haven’t cracked the top 5 coldest Junes, but it’s close.  Of more interest may be the fact that the five-year average is the lowest since the early 1960s.  It also happened to be a very chilly 5 year period in the early mid 1950s.  So maybe we were overdue. 

Clearly this has not the case across the rest of the country, wow…look at that continued warming the last 5 years:

There has been no drop in June (or summer) temps when the whole lower 48 our averaged together. 

If someone has A LOT of time (graduate student), they could try to figure out why.  Maybe the incidence of upper-troughs hanging near the West Coast in late spring has increased?  Stronger onshore flow?

I don’t see any significant change away from our cooler than average weather through next week.  Most likely we won’t see a big warmup for the 4th of July.  I have no idea if it’ll be cloudy or possibly showery, but there is no sign of a large upper-level ridge nearby through the first few days of July.  Models are in quite good agreement on this.  Here is the latest 850mb ensemble charts from the 12z ECMWF showing ensemble temps near or below average through at least July 8th:

and the 18z GFS shows ensemble temps are near or below average through July 6th:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

30 Responses to 2nd Coolest June in 20 Years; Cool Continues Into Early July

  1. paulbeugene says:

    Looking at models….this weekend will be rather marine but not as bad as last weekend (we did luck out with Olympic Trials on Sunday however). Looks like most precip for WA coast, Olympics, etc. GFS hanging onto relative troughiness offshore of PacNW for continued variable onshore flow..18Z GFS has pleasant July 4 with temps around 75-80 in PDX…probably the best fourth of July weather in the whole country.
    ECMWF beyond day 10 has heat wave over central Plains (Kansas, Nebraska, etc with 580ish heights over PacNW with some monsoonal flow from AZ, etc…will have to wait and see..sounds like temps in 85-90F range to me if not warmer…in the week after July 4.

  2. Bill Gannon (corvallis) says:

    bgb41, Weather has a seventy year cycle, plus or minus five years. Thirty or so it’s warm, thirty or so it’s cool. The Chinese have known about these cycles for hundreds of years, that is one of the reasons why their not worried about a so called greenhouse gas.

    Perhaps Mark can use the temperature records from when Portland started recording temperature. Whoops forgot NWS moved the Stevenson screen from downtown Portland out to the airport sometime in the 1940’s. There should be at least seventy years of records to look at. Just cross reference today’s temps back in time and see what happens.

    In the mean time take a gander at this chart from NOAA lifted from Oregon live:

    Unless I’m blind I do not see any warming at all.

  3. vinnybob says:

    I was just going to sit in the sun, 5 minutes later the lawn chair floated by.

  4. Ian says:

    Wow, June 1954 must have been awesome!

  5. bgb41 says:

    WHAT WILL JULY 2012 BE LIKE IN PORTLAND?

    Fill out the below form with your guesses and it will be stored in an online database. The rankings will be posted on July 31st showing the best forecast.

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/JULY2012/add.php

  6. pdxgeologist says:

    Just returned from 8 days working in SE Arizona. Avg daytime high was around 108 with a few 113s thrown in for good measure. I can’t tell you how nice it was to fly in over all that green and step of the plane into something other than a blast furnace. Personally, I’ll take a cool June over a sweltering one.

  7. W7ENK says:

    Wait, what? I thought 2012 WAS in the top 5 coldest June’s at this point??

    I’m confused… someone’s lying!

    • David B. says:

      Different time periods. Mark’s graph starts in 1941. The chart you linked starts in 1971. Nobody’s lying.

    • bgb41 says:

      Plus my chart is just in regards to average max temps. I think Mark’s above graph is based on mean temps.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yep, Brian is talking about MAXIMUM temps, I took the average temp as a whole. I didn’t want to get any more depressing than it already is.

  8. runrain says:

    Junuary, Julyuary, Augustuary, followed by novembuly, Decembuly, and Januly…

  9. bgb41 says:

    6/25/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft)
    Low: 64 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:45 at HOLLAND MEADOWS(4900 ft)
    Low: 29 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (74/31 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.86″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  10. paulbeugene says:

    Gloomy Forecast System has trough after trough offshore of Pac NW through mid July. Things could change quickly though. An ice cold Michelob and a high of 109F on July 24 sounds nice.

    • gidrons says:

      The 12z has either troughs, onshore flow, or northerly flow through 7/12. It also has another wet weekend but the 4th is dry(barely).
      Do you still get the premium version of the Euro? The version I see only goes to July 3 but looks a little sunnier than the GFS.
      Michelob is OK but I prefer IPA’s.

    • David B. says:

      109? Ugh… no thanks. I’ll take some nice mid/upper 70s with the occasional 80s day instead (i.e. Seattle norms). If I wanted 109 I’d move to Arizona.

  11. ashley watson says:

    any one hoping for a nice cold snowy winter very well could be disappointed this winter (no shock there). all junes with average temps below 61 degrees with the exception of 1955 had crappy winters as a whole with the exception of a cold snap or breif snow event or 2. any body looking forward to january?????

    • Mr Data says:

      After the last 5 Januaries I think I’ll pass.

    • Mr Data says:

      Weren’t you the one that called for the last few winters to be buss?
      If so I would give you credit for being right BUT the REAL credit I believe goes to China for manipulating our jet stream to create drought for most of the Continental USA which would lead to stronger troughs for the PNW and the stronger troughs leed to a lesser monsoon season for Aridzona. (Arizona)

      I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if there is an underground weather war going on between the USA and China causing drought to each other for political reasons and China has openly admit to funding such programs.

      Drought is more devastating long-term for agriculture purposes and I think would use far less CPU power on their weather supercomputers then creating a bunch of severe storms every other month to spank each other with not that there won’t be any unusual storms.

      If you look at global temps and take the US of A out of the picture the temps have hardly budged since the late 90s and even dropped a bit but the USA keeps getting hammered with continuing drought and hard freezes in sensitive areas like Florida and California.

      The military needs some time out in the corner and a beating. :p

  12. Pat Timm says:

    Nice analysis Mark.

  13. bgb41 says:

    I have mentioned time and again. The 1953-57 scenario will repeat itself at some point.

  14. Perhaps it would be justice if increasing cool onshore June Gloom was offset by increasing offshore flow in September and October. Trouble is, recently the warmth seems to have hit only September and missed October for the most part.

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