Cool Weekend Ahead, June May End Cool Too

A cold upper trough sits offshore right now and pretty much stays there until Tuesday.  So get used to more cloud cover, off/on showers, and cooler than average temperatures. 

Models keep implying we get enough instability with the cooler air aloft tomorrow for a few thunderstorms.  This will be in a south-southwest flow ahead of the trough.  That’s the extent of interesting weather to look forward to in the upcoming week. 

We are heading into the deadest weather time of the year.  Rarely do we have much to talk about between late June and early October.  Occasional extreme heat or some thunderstorms west of the Cascades are about it.  I tend to blog a bit less during this time as a result; it’s a bit harder to get inspired.  That’s also the reason I prefer to take just about all my vacation time June-August too.

Beyond Tuesday, models are showing some sort of ridging for the latter half of next week.  But neither the ECMWF or GFS show this as the BIG SHIFT into our summer pattern.  Check out the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

and then the 00z GFS chart:

They both show brief warming the 2nd half of next week, then just average or below average 850mb temps beyond that time into the first few days of July.  So this is going to go down as another cooler and wetter than average June.  It doesn’t seem THAT bad to me, but that might be because this Spring hasn’t been nearly as bad as the previous two.  I showed this graphic last night; the number of 80 degree days from April through June. 

Last year we only had 2 through June.  This year we’ll probably end up with 11 or 12.  The big change this year is that we haven’t seen extended periods of cold and wet; it’s been broken up by occasional brief warm spells.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

63 Responses to Cool Weekend Ahead, June May End Cool Too

  1. Jeremy KF7NGT says:

    Mt. Bachelor this afternoon: http://tinyurl.com/87fc3nq

  2. JJ97222 says:

    108 degrees in San Antonio today! This Northwest body is definetly not used to this but at times it feels nice to just have a little heat on you. On to Calgary tomorrow should be a little cooler but still Sunny! I hope this summer in Portland doesn’t continue the cold and drippy below normal activity otherwise more trips to sunny places will be requiired!

  3. bgb41 says:

    Top 5 coldest June max temps averages since 1971. Now 2010, 2011 and 2012 are all in the top 5.

    • W7ENK says:

      When do we get to officially call off GW? Sure, the rest of the US may have been hot, but last I checked we were still a part of that disaster, and we’ve certainly been getting the shaft…

    • GW may leave us in a long term funk. Resulting in giant mutant slugs and mushrooms the size of large cabbages that eat our wood frame houses and then begin to rot and create a perfect medium for flesh eating maggots the size of night crawlers…DON’T FALL ASLEEP WHATEVER YOU DO!!! 😉

  4. my timelapse of yesterdays t-storm. it shows the storm up over silver lake towards the end.

  5. Jbpdx says:

    Just compared the monthly stats for June 2010, which I think everyone will agree was awful, with this June. Eerily familiar. Similar rain and overall ave temps. In fact there were more days in the 70s in 2010. Also, Portland just hit 17 days this month with below ave temps. La Niña is over? Read ’em and weep.

  6. bgb41 says:

    6/24/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft)
    Low: 62 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:44 at BIG RED MOUNTAIN(6250 ft)
    Low: 29 at Bly Mountain (Or (4920 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (77/30 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.65″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

  7. Zero rain today. High of 70. No complaints.

  8. runrain says:

    The tomato plants ARE doing much better this year as compared to last year. And the corn is nearing that famous “knee-high by Fourth of July” height as well.

  9. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I’m just glad I WON’T be painting anyone’s house this summer! After last August, when we’d planned in April to do a job for a family that had an impending wedding date at the end of August, we thought 2 weekends in August, NO PROBLEM!!!!! Then we were deluged on and barely got the project done in time for the wedding.

    I am hopeful that we will see some better camping weather this summer. I didn’t go at all the last two summers. Planning to head to Yellowstone next weekend, so hoping there’s some sort of ridge over there, so the night time temps won’t be in the 20’s!

  10. Wendy-Silverlake says:

    This keeps building right over the top of us. Lots of booms, flashes, and triple sized hail.

    • Wendy-Silverlake says:

      The gauge says rain rate of 8.11 inch/hour during that little sprinkle. The lightening map is only showing three strikes, but there was at least 7-8 booms during the hardest part of it all.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

  11. Emily Waldman says:

    We are about to get a thunderstorm big time in Longview! Been 66 & partly cloudy! Daytime heating & clouds=thunderstorm

    • Emily Waldman says:

      First roll of thunder!

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      Yep!! Just a clap of thunder a few moments ago!! A nice little cell currently above us.

    • looks mean on radar. that rumble was loooong and drawn out. waiting for more. no rain here yet, but getting dasrk and blustery. got my timelapse rolling, but i dont have a good view to the south, just to the northeast. so it should be a pretty good film of it rolling over and away.

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      Yeah, that was the longest roll of thunder I have ever heard. Quite weird but fascinating.

  12. Jbpdx says:

    Climate Prediction (maps released today) has now downgraded this area to below normal temps thru 8 July. Any surprise?

  13. bgb41 says:

    6/23/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:85 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 63 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at BIG RED MOUNTAIN(6250 ft) & Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 30 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (70/32 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.92″ at AL7HY Cottage Gr(1001ft)

  14. W7ENK says:

    I’d like to address something I’ve been sitting on for a while now…

    Jeremy KF7NGT made the following forecast several months ago about this coming couple weeks:

    He said…

    Jeremy KF7NGT

    95 99 104 107 109 107 102 106 100 87

    Starting June 28th. Strong offshore flow, massive high pressure, crystal clear skies, long weekend, BBQ, cold beer, fishing pole, cool high mountain lake…

    Monsoonal moisture from the south gives us a light show the evening of the 4th along with a couple of fat dusty rain drops. The dying t-boomers drift to the NE and dissipate over the valley. With cloud cover Portland sees first 80 degree low.

    See attached for a detailed breakdown I’ve had on my calendar since his forecast was made. I said I’d hold him to this!! Let’s see if it comes true, shall we??? 😆

    • I’m pretty much on with this. I dunno about a MASSIVE high, but I’m feeling some pretty good vibes about a warm 4th this year. (plus a peek at the latest gfs does show a better trend)

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Thank God the actual forecast looks nothing like that! Upper 70s sounds MUCH nicer.

  15. runrain says:

    Hope that cell approaching Canby holds together!

  16. PeterB (1170' Bellevue) says:

    Warm spring…. Whatever…. In the seattle area, yet another cool wet spring, 3.3″ rain June thus far at my house. Cold PDO to blame (was PDO ever a topic of discussion on this blog???)

    • PeterB (1170' Bellevue) says:

      1.07″ storm total, pouring…. 49.8F
      Junuary continues. Maybe this year we’ll get Juluary as well.

    • PeterB (1170' Bellevue) says:

      Update. 48.9F, 1.13″ storm total. This keeps up, I’ll start hallucinating some chunky rain

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

      1.24″ storm total here in Longview

    • Mr Data says:

      PeterB. They never discuss that kind of stuff on here though Western talks about the PDO once in a while.

      I think it’s because Mark think it’s too complicated for the public to understand or Mark doesn’t study that stuff even though it’s very important for the climate.

      I am not sure which or could it be a bit of both scenarios?

    • Mr Data says:

      Also Peter B I love your definition of Juluary as well.

      I wish topics like the PDO would also be discussed more frequently on here so people can have a better prespective of the picture as I have gotten my parents to slowly understand about the ocean relationship.

    • W7ENK says:

      You’re kidding, right? You must be, or you just weren’t paying attention… There was quite the discussion on here when the PDO switched Negative late last (non)winter. In fact, I even addressed one of your questions and we engaged in a lengthy conversation about how that would play out and cause this summer to be cool and crappy… do you not remember this, Kyle? o_O

  17. Jbpdx says:

    NWS Juneau, AK
    Zone Forecast: Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island

    Last Update: 839 AM AKDT SAT JUN 23 2012

    Today…Sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Southwest wind 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

    Tonight…Partly cloudy. Lows around 54. Northwest wind 10 mph shifting to the southeast late.

    Friday’s high: 77

  18. 0.64″ rain…….Temp 53 degrees currently…

  19. Howdy all…got moss creeping up your ankles yet??..just thought i’d update the world on my location…moving over to the bagby hot springs campground for the rest of the summer…gonna be warm no matter what the weather does!…

    • IceCold says:

      Larry, just curious as to what you do to give you such a nice relaxing life. Are you retired or do you work for the state parks? Either way it sounds nice.

    • They give him free rent as a camp host. No cash tho. So drop by a give him a few coins in the can. Beer money 😉

    • Mr Data says:

      No beer past 10 o clock.

    • Actually there is zero alcohol allowed at the hot springs. But the campgrounds are a different story (I’m told). We went there many moons ago and (with several other hot springs) the scene was not too groovy. I am told it is better now. But haven’t been.

  20. weathercrazy82 says:

    0.66″ so far here and it continues to pour.

  21. alohabb says:

    The past few years only solidify the fact that as soon as I can.. I am moving outa here! I want sunshine and warmth. The PNW can keep this weather, I want to be outside, and not in the rain!

  22. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Ugh – 50.6° & rain @ 10am. That’s a bit unseasonable for June 23rd. So much for my hiking plans this morning – I’ll clean the garage instead.

  23. muttville1 says:

    Indeed Bellweather, indeed……..

  24. paulbeugene says:

    Now sunny over central OR…snow at Santiam Pass…cold air aloft….should be ripe for some thunderstorms to develop, up to 1 cm hail.

  25. Kevin Finch says:

    Could be like 2010 when we got LOTS of extreme heat! Will wait and see …

  26. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Obviously joking with this statement.
    “…this pattern occurs only once in 15,787 times…very, very rare.”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/06/wet-day-and-hard-forecast.html

  27. runrain says:

    How do you like me now sayeth the weather gods. Nasty, nasty weather out there this morning.

  28. I’ll take everyday in July, August, and September at 80-85 with a few hot days mixed in, maybe a few 100’s with the occasional upper 60’s /lower 70’s misty/cloudy cool off days right after heat waves. What I DON’T want, is to plan a day out floating on the river in early August again, and have it 65 and cloudy at around noon, when the water is 60 degrees too! NO NO NO! OK, fit over.

  29. W7ENK says:

    Here’s a wired one…

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    546 AM PDT SAT JUN 23 2012

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/6407371

  30. Brian says:

    Junuary! Summer begins July the 5th..book it!

  31. W7ENK says:

    Booo! Hissssss!! 😦

  32. bgb41 says:

    6/22/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 71 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at ONION MOUNTAIN L(4438 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft) and 8 other stations

    Low: 36 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    CROW FLAT (73/40 ) (5172 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.70″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.62″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)
    1.43″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

    • bgb41 says:

      I believe the low of 71 this morning at Lake Owyhee Dam is our first reported low in the 70s this summer so far in eastern oregon.

  33. karlbonner1982 says:

    April and May weren’t that chilly though. That’s the main reason this spring seems so much better than last. PLUS the fact that The Dalles hit 90 degrees on April 23, beating the old record for earliest 90 by one day!

  34. bgb41 says:

    The brief warm spells have made this spring a bit more tolerable than the last two. If this July ends up averaging mid 70s again like last year its going to bum me out.

    • Bellweather says:

      Being the PNWer that I am, I’ll take an average of mid-70’s all summer and be very happy. 90’s and 100’s aren’t my idea of fun.

    • W7ENK says:

      Being a true PNWer, you should understand that 90s and 100s are common yet infrequent enough every summer that you should appreciate them when they come, because they only last a small handful of days before they’re gone. A true PNWer would never complain about a three day stretch of hot weather, rather would rejoice in it.

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