Cool Spell Begins Saturday

We have two more warm days on tap, then it’s on to cool and occasionally showery weather for most of Rose Festival Week (what a way to fulfill a stereotype!).

What a nice day today with thin high clouds shielding the sun at times, but it was bright and warm.  We hit 73 here in Portland; at least up through 6pm.

Tomorrow the stationary front to our north slips a bit closer, and you can see a wave of moisture close enough to possibly bring sprinkles from Portland north.  Best chance will be in the morning and up against the Cascade and Coast Range.  You can see that on our RPM model:

A cold upper-level trough drops in over the West Coast Saturday.  This is the beginning of a cool spell as several troughs rotate into the Pacific Northwest during the following week.  It’s quite obvious on the 850mb ensemble charts.  First, the 12z GFS shows the quick drop Friday night, then below average until right after the Grand Floral Parade (Sat, the 9th):

The 12z ECMWF is similar, although it’s hinting at possible ridging around the end of next week.  The operational model (blue) is much warmer than the ensemble average (red).   It’s interesting that there ARE plenty of quite warm runs, but lots of chilly ones too holding the ensemble mean down below average:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to Cool Spell Begins Saturday

  1. Sifton says:

    Officially wettest Mar.- May ever!!! What really sucks lately is looking at (& remembering) record highs for each day.
    Love;N.W./ Hate;rain

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Pretty nice down here today. Partly to mostly sunny and 76 deg right now. This is definitely the time of year when P town gets more moisture and clouds than the southern valley. But we make up for it with endless fog in the winter when you guys get the east wind. Trade offs 🙂

  2. Jbpdx says:

    Hillsboro March–May

    March 20/31 days below ave
    April 16/30 days below ave
    May 17/31 below ave

    Plus the wettest spring ever; I’d hardly call all this normal Portland weather.

    • Sifton says:

      Hey, I’ll come pick you up, at least we could go to Salem today!! LOL……

    • chris s says:

      Well Jb, You dont suppose that when we have dry springs, in order for us to get the avgs. that we do we will have to have some wet springs as well. And really, if the avg temp is say 65, and it makes it to 64 i would say thats pretty close to avg, just giving an example. This spring has been very much a typical northwest spring. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      I agree Chris, this spring has been more normal than the last few… since about 2008 I would say.

      Broken down, your stats there JB don’t really amount to much. What you’re saying here is that 53/92 days were below average, or 57%. I could understand being all worked up over something like 75%, but a 7% lead, really? This much whining over a single digit margin??

      Flip the coin now, and 43% of the last 92 days have been above average… that’s almost half! I’d say we’re pretty much on par with where we should be this time of year. Too much rain? At least it’s not 55 degrees every day like 2008, and 2009, and 2010, and 2011. Be thankful we won’t be rationing your water in August. Or, you could move (back?) down to the LA Basin and whine all summer long about water restrictions… Take your pick.

      And on that note, just out of sheer morbid curiosity, where exactly would the perfect place to live be for you JB?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Wow Jb,

      One half of the days were below average in April and that you don’t call normal? April and May were quite close to average and pretty reasonable. And this is coming from a life-long Northesterner who HATES cold and wet springs!

    • bgb41 says:

      If he used the right F6 data sheets for KHIO then his data wouldn’t be skewed every month towards cold bias. The clino means are not correct on the monthly summaries at that station.

  3. Sifton says:

    This hurts me more than it does you Mark believe me, but the “cold spell begins TODAY”! & it seems like alllll the metros having been living day to day this past 2 weeks just playin the odds on long range, or so it seemed sometimes to no avail. But I was really banking/planning on today though dagnabbit!!!

  4. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Quite an ugly day today

  5. W7ENK says:

    A little bit more moisture squeezing out of these clouds today than your RPM video above leads one to believe, Mark…

  6. cphatts says:

    To parlay off my post a few weeks ago regarding the NWS inaccurate forecasts for percentages for rain or showers…..last Saturday was 20% chance of showers, Sunday 30% chance of showers, today, 20% showers (these were all the percentages forecasted the evening before)…..I’ll cut them a little slack for Saturday and Sunday due to the fact it was isolated T-storms, but I check their forecasts every day and I can tell you that is almost a guarantee that any time they forecast 20% chance of rain/showers, it WILL rain. I don’t understand why they just don’t forecast “rain/showers likely”…..

  7. mattmann says:

    Steady rain from LO to portland………….Someone tell andy to open up a window, it wet right now lol!

  8. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Sounds so cliche’ “The Rose Festival Low”. But so true!

  9. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    It has been raining at a moderate pace this morning in Vancouver.

  10. Chuck on MT Scott says:

    Let’s move Rose Festival to November. Then we will start to have better weather this time of year.

  11. bgb41 says:

    5/30/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 60 at Celilo, East of(225 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft) & DW9072 Moro(1867 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:48 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 28 at Mazama (4590 ft ) & Diamond Lake (Or (5260 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (79/30 ) (4531 ft )
    Mazama (77/28) (4590 ft)

  12. W7ENK says:

    Nuuuuuuuuuu!!! I’m going to the coast this weekend… 😥

  13. karlbonner1982 says:

    I think you should point out the fact that despite all this prolonged cool troughiness, rainfall totals for the next week are expected to be pretty pathetic. We’re in a transitional period between spring and summer where it’s getting pretty hard to see a really wet pattern, but still easy to be cloudy and cool for days on end.

  14. bgb41 says:

    Just got some light rain up here at BG Lake. I seem to get rain when nobody else does 😦

  15. weathercrazy82 says:

    Just had a brief shower here and it was still 69. Now the sun is back out.

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