A Warmer Friday Ahead

A busy weather afternoon with heavy showers that developed just as expected.  One produced a nice funnel cloud southeast of Albany and was filmed by Coleen Dahlman of Milwaukie.  We have that on our Facebook page here:  http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?v=10151161079322785

A warming and drying air mass comes in on northeast upper-level winds later tonight and Friday.  The result will be much warmer temps and more sunshine.  Our RPM model continues to insist showers develop on the Cascades in the northeasterly flow tomorrow and then drift down over the western valleys tomorrow afternoon.  The 00z WRF-GFS was  bit different with just some random showers popping up.  The screaming message would be that any of us in the western valleys MIGHT see a late day shower or thunderstorm.

Saturday should be similar, then a dying front moves onshore to give us lots of clouds and a few light showers.

Models have been vacillating between strong ridging for the 2nd half of next week or a flat ridge with moisture moving through.  The last few runs of the GFS have backed off on the big ridge idea, more like the ECMWF.  Our forecast runs down the middle, not nearly as warm as a ridge pattern would produce.  But warmer than the wet and cooler ECMWF.

Here are the two ensemble charts…first the 12z ECMWF, definitely hinting that June will begin cool:

 

Then the new 00z GFS, the +15 850mb temps next week appear to be “in the middle of the pack” as they say:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to A Warmer Friday Ahead

  1. W7ENK says:

    Large thunderstorm just absolutely exploded out of nowhere over Battleground area, moving SW toward Portland Metro… 🙂

  2. umpire says:

    Heading To Ft. Stevens next week, so hope to see a bit of warm weather sometime!

  3. gidrons says:

    How about a link that isn’t facebook? http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?v=10151161079322785

  4. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    That is a perfect forecast in my book. Cool with cloud on and off and not too wet so you can still get outdoor work and fun in. I’ve rather enjoyed the weather the PNW has experienced the last few years (save for generally snow-less winters).

  5. W7ENK says:

    Closed out yesterday with a half inch of rain exactly, and a high that barely cracked 60F at my place in Milwaukie…

    It felt freakin’ COLD out this morning! Forgot to check the temperature before I left the house though… 😳

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I hope all GOES well!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    326 am PDT Friday may 25 2012

    These temperatures could drive some decent surface-based cape
    values…00z/06z NAM runs both continue to suggest surface-based cape around 500 j/kg in the Willamette Valley…not too shabby for US. Also…the NAM Keys in on a weak vorticity over NE Washington… evident on satellite by enhanced cloud tops…bringing it southwest toward
    Portland around 00z this afternoon. This would coincide with the
    warmest surface temperatures and thus the best surface instability. So it could be the trigger which causes convection to develop in an
    otherwise marginal situation. If deep convection does develop…NAM bufr soundings show the potential for cloud tops up to 30-35 kft…plenty high for charge separation and thunderstorms. Since there is still some uncertainty as to how all this will come together…decided not to increase probability of precipitation just yet. Day shift may want to consider
    increasing the chance for showers if all GOES well.

  7. bgb41 says:

    5/24/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at DW0462 Umatilla(1273 ft)
    Low: 51 at Rowena(107 ft) & Rufus(185 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 21 at Beatty (4320 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    Beatty (51/21 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.37″ at GOODWIN PEAK(1800ft)

    • W7ENK says:

      Lostine is a beautiful area, deep in a narrow little canyon with a wide meadow in the bottom and a decent mountain-esque river rushing through. My parents have some friends that (used to?) live down in there, we visited them when I was 14. First time I rode a horse, and the deer were so tame, they’d come up to you in multiples and eat cookies right out of your hand. Kinda surreal…

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, and the elevation at Lostine (proper) is less than 3,500 ft. Not sure where CW7477 is located, but it’s quite a bit higher than the town itself. I’m willing to bet actual Lostine was in the mid/upper-40s yesterday.

  8. bgb41 says:

    Just .04″ of rain last 30 hours here at Battle Ground Lake. Not looking forward to the below normal temps expected in June.

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