A Warmer Friday Ahead

May 24, 2012

A busy weather afternoon with heavy showers that developed just as expected.  One produced a nice funnel cloud southeast of Albany and was filmed by Coleen Dahlman of Milwaukie.  We have that on our Facebook page here:  http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?v=10151161079322785

A warming and drying air mass comes in on northeast upper-level winds later tonight and Friday.  The result will be much warmer temps and more sunshine.  Our RPM model continues to insist showers develop on the Cascades in the northeasterly flow tomorrow and then drift down over the western valleys tomorrow afternoon.  The 00z WRF-GFS was  bit different with just some random showers popping up.  The screaming message would be that any of us in the western valleys MIGHT see a late day shower or thunderstorm.

Saturday should be similar, then a dying front moves onshore to give us lots of clouds and a few light showers.

Models have been vacillating between strong ridging for the 2nd half of next week or a flat ridge with moisture moving through.  The last few runs of the GFS have backed off on the big ridge idea, more like the ECMWF.  Our forecast runs down the middle, not nearly as warm as a ridge pattern would produce.  But warmer than the wet and cooler ECMWF.

Here are the two ensemble charts…first the 12z ECMWF, definitely hinting that June will begin cool:

 

Then the new 00z GFS, the +15 850mb temps next week appear to be “in the middle of the pack” as they say:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen