Climate Modeling wins over Day to Day Weather Modeling?

I just read a good post by Cliff Mass on his blog …

I agree with him on just about all his points.  I’m still on vacation through Sunday, but it’s chilly outside right now so a good time to catch up on emails.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

73 Responses to Climate Modeling wins over Day to Day Weather Modeling?

  1. I would be pleasantly surprised if we go from a 15 day dry spell, to a work week of on and off showers, to a nice memorial day weekend. It seems that normally, if we have a nice early May, the holiday weekend at the end if a washout. I’d love to break that habit this year though!

  2. chiefWright says:

    Lemme guess. Mark is sweating bullets over the Memorial Day forecast before he posts….

  3. W7ENK says:

    240 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

  4. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Looks like pretty nice weather starting this weekend and warming up nicely by the middle of next week.

  5. Kassie97222 says:

    So intellicast says that there is/was a possible tornado and damaging winds near/in Mcminnville…

    • W7ENK says:

      Uhhh… was it just a rotation signature on the radar? Those pop up at random all the time, and 95% of the time mean nothing… o_O

  6. W7ENK says:

    55 degrees and raining at Noon…

    So familiar, and so pathetic. 😦

  7. Mr Data says:

    0.20 on the gauge from early morning sometime.

    Usually May troughs only produce like 0.05 (for multiple days) or just plain cloudy where it looks like it will do something but nothing happens.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Oooh, now this is cool… 🙂

  9. I love that Sunday rain that didn’t start until evening……. Oops I meant morning: P

  10. bgb41 says:

    5/20/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:88 at Hayes Hill (US 1(1640 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 60 at Rufus(185 ft)

    High:42 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 31 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft ) & Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    Hayes Hill (US 1 (88/42 ) (1640 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.59″ at EW0062 Dundee(971ft)

  11. W7ENK says:

    Here’s the next celestial event we get to miss out on because of cloud cover:

    On the evening of June 5, 2012 Venus will transit across the face of the Sun. The next transit happens again on December 11, 2117.
    Good luck holding out that long…

  12. Mr Data says:

    Western Weather is talking about heights next week going down to 540 being possibly the deepest trough ever dwarfing 2008.

    In LA the NWS text says temps will get almost winter like due to the deepness of the trough. Major change is around the corner.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, isn’t that just pathetic… After 2+ weeks of awesome, we’re collapsing back down into another January! >_<

      I'm so glad I took advantage of all that nice weather last weekend, planting everything in my garden§ My corn sprouted today, but after next week it may all shrink back into the soil. That, and after 3 nights close to freezing, my tomato plants look like $#!+… By the looks of things this afternoon, I may lose two of them. 😦

      Isn't it almost June?

    • Mr Data says:

      Yeah it’s almost Juneau.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Here’s a photo of the eclipse we didn’t get to see, as seen earlier tomorrow from Tokyo.

  14. weathercrazy82 says:

    I posted a couple of photos here…

  15. weathercrazy82 says:

    This view of the eclipse darkening the clouds is even better!

  16. weathercrazy82 says:

    Check out the darkness spreading on the visible satellite picture:

  17. vernonia1 says:

    oops….this one is being narrated

  18. vernonia1 says:

    live feed of the eclipse. This segment is not narrated…but the 2nd one….later this evening will be 🙂

    found this off of NatGeo

  19. frederm says:

    I see the forecast today was 72f? currently I am sitting at 54f at 3:25pm. Although we do run a tad cooler up here but not that much. seems like something changed. Need to read the blog to find out what.

    • Jbpdx says:

      If I wanted Juneau weather, I would have moved to Alaska….

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      I hit 72 today. Just a little bit off geographically

    • Jbpdx says:

      62 here, only 10 degrees off forecast, and yesterday’s sunny and 74 was cloudy all day. Other than that they’re batting 1.000

    • Jbpdx says:

      Oh I forgot the .25″ rain we had too on this dry day.

  20. runrain says:

    Remember, summer doesn’t start until July 4. Rain and/or clouds should be expected until then.

  21. Jbpdx says:

    Accuweather is forecasting weather like this to continue day after day well into the first week of June, with maybe 1 day exception. Cold, wet and cloudy. How pathetic.

    • chris s says:

      Its still spring, we just had a 2 week dry stretch, several days in the 80’s, good grief dude, move already. 🙂

    • Jbpdx says:

      I intend to. Want to buy my house?

    • Mr Data says:

      That’s what you have to do to people who bash your opinions.

      Give em a witty fact like “I intend to. Want to buy house? and the bashers suddenly remain silent as they don’t know what to say. 🙂

      They don’t realize there is a huge difference between being a critic and whining.

    • Mr Data says:

      I agree with you but it’s better then the awful haze we’ve been having covering up the coast range.

  22. Last night I was thinking it looked like “showers by Sunday evening” was a little late and by the morning if it were sprinkling I wouldn’t be surprised, guess my educated guessing was as correct as all those models…..I hope everyone enjoyed one of the longest dry spells in Western Oregon’s Spring history!

  23. Kassie97222 says:

    So is the sunlight during this eclipse stronger than the sunlight on a regular sunny day?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Doubt we’ll see the sun, but we can cross our fingers, toes and tongues?!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      This may post twice, or the first attempt is lost in space. Hahaah!

  24. bgb41 says:

    5/19/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:80 at Castle( 283 ft)
    Low: 53 at Wyeth(97 ft)

    High:46 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 19 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (72/19 ) (5000 ft )

  25. Jbpdx says:

    The only problem with this “sunny” day—-no sun. Cloudy all day. Accuweather shows two crummy weeks ahead. Here we go again.

  26. Jbpdx says:

    Off topic but for vintage TV lovers: Portland finally gets the MeTV diginet network on 24 June. KATU is putting it on channel 2.2. ThisTV switches over to KRCW 32.3, former home to Universal Sports.

  27. bgb41 says:

    5/18/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:78 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 52 at Wyeth(97 ft) & DW2789 Milton Fr(1358 ft)

    High:38 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 14 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    Sand Creek (US 9 (64/14 ) (4525 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.05″ at Rome(4049ft)

  28. Kassie97222 says:

    So is there a way to watch the eclipse on Sunday, without the “special” glasses? I won’t be able to get them.

  29. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Don’t be fooled by the superrefraction mechanism. Hahaah!

  30. bgb41 says:

    5/17/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:76 at Castle( 283 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(1273 ft)
    Low: 60 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    High:40 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 27 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    CW7081 Sunriver (65/32 ) (4176 ft )
    BEND WATERSHED (62/29) (5330 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.19″ at MOON HILL(6100ft)

  31. karlbonner1982 says:

    I agree with Cliff Mass’s main comment about weather modeling. After all, what is climate? Nothing but the sum of individual weather events! Most important of all, we need to know more about the “weather change” that we can expect to accompany whatever climate change we are causing. How will the seasonal distribution of precipitation be affected? Will summer temps peak later in the season due to increased CO2 levels? How will a warmer planet and higher greenhouse gas levels affect things like our winter fogversion phenomenon (will it get worse?). How will frost dates and USDA hardiness zones be affected for different areas? Will the really windy days in the Gorge be any windier because of climate change, or will they be less windy?

  32. W7ENK says:

    I gotta ask… What in Hades is that a picture of???

    • W7ENK says:

      OMG, it’s Global Warming!!!

      Oh wait, it’s just polar summer in the North… my bad. :mrgreen:

  33. Steve Pierce says:


    Portland, Oregon (May 17th 2012) – An audience of 85 came to hear Dr. Cliff Mass speak in front of the Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) last weekend at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) in Portland, despite unseasonably warm spring temperatures. Dr. Mass’ presentation was both valuable and educational. The Oregon AMS chapter of the AMS has made Dr. Mass’ video and powerpoint presentation available for viewing and downloading. We encourage sharing of this presentation with the public. Please link directly to the AMS link below. Cliff even gives his personal opinion on the two controversial Oregon AMS global warming meetings held this past season. Please move forward to the 2:55 mark of video #7 in the link below for Cliff’s personal thoughts on this. Please see:

    Coming Up Next… Please Mark Your Calendars Now For These Great Oregon AMS Meetings & Events…

    Tuesday, June 12th 2012 7pm-9pm (Social Hour 6-7pm)
    Annual Oregon AMS Dinner Meeting – “What’s new with the Oregon Climate Service” (OCS)
    Guest Speaker: Kathie Dello, Deputy Director Oregon Climate Service, Corvallis.
    Meeting Location: Old Spaghetti Factory Clackamas, Oregon (Portland metro).
    Dinner RSVP’s will be requested by the Oregon AMS very soon.

    No Formal Meeting – Summer Break

    No Formal Meeting – Summer Break

    Wednesday, September 12th 2012 7pm
    “All About The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)”
    Guest Speaker: Dr. Nate Mantua, University of Washington
    Meeting Location: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) – Portland

    Saturday, October 13th 2012 10am
    “Columbus Day Storm 50th Anniversary Commemoration”
    Guest Speakers: TBD
    Meeting Location: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) – Portland

    Saturday, November 17th 2012 10am
    “20th Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference”
    Guest Forecasters: TBD
    Meeting Location: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) – Portland

    Hope to see you all at these great events / meetings!


  34. pdxgeologist says:

    The real question is when will Apple introduce the pentaflop iPhone?

  35. gidrons says:

    The GFS is run 4 times a day. The Euro is run twice a day. How often is the climate model run?

  36. paulbeugene says:

    It basically comes down to this:

    No single weather event will ever have the capacity to bring a nation such as the United States to its knees, so it is not a national security issue. Hurricane Katrina is an example. Was it devastating for the region(s) affected?…yes but in the end it was not a national security issue.

    National security at this point is basically dealing with two areas of risk: 1) terrorists from blowing up planes, buildings, etc or other despicable acts that can bring the economy to its knees. If Hurricane Katrina hit New York and caused the same destruction…the economic impact would have been far less for the national economy as the psychologic impact of terror is far greater than what a single weather calamity can exert.

    2) Economic risk. Who will rule the planet over the coming decades, centuries will depend on whose economies will prevail. Proper allocation of natural resources plays heavily on this issue. Special interests with potential for economic gain fall into this category as well (Al Gore, etc) Being able to predict what the climate will be like in the future would in theory give us an advantage. Will it save lives…I don’t think so, only preserve quality of life. Unless you are incredibly stupid, you are not going to drown because sea levels rose as a result of Greenland melting. You might have to move…but you won’t drown.

    Forgot to mention education…will let Cliff Mass talk about that.

    So…basically, accurately predicting the weather for the next week or two will save lives…but not a nation. In terms of who gets the government budget dollar…national security trumps saving lives. We already spend kajillions on health care…look what we got compared to other countries….

    • Mr Data says:

      We get no long lines and the freedom to choose your provider which you and everyone else wants to destroy.

      I’ve heard you get very long waiting lists (as in YEARS) being common and many people come down to the USA to get health care without the wait.

      And it’s a myth they won’t treat you without money if your income is below a certain level and the illness is not a common cold.

      As usual the media likes the make mountains out of molehills.

    • W7ENK says:

      No long lines? You obviously haven’t visited the ER in a while, have you…

      I digress, let’s talk about weather! 🙂

  37. Larry says:

    Sounds like he’s given up – the “us vs them” mentality. I’m sure he’s just frustrated.

  38. gidrons says:

    Isn’t he going to be at the AMS meeting?

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