First 90 in 7 Day Forecast This Year…Sun Next 5 Days Too

The next 5 days will feature a taste of June-July temps and weather.  70s tomorrow, 80s Saturday through Monday, and then probably back into the 70s Tuesday.  Here’s our latest 7 Day forecast as of 5pm today:

You’ll notice we are sticking with upper 80s to around 90 both Sunday and Monday.  That 90 is really just a psychological number…we only changed the forecast high by 2 degrees on Monday, but 90 sure seems a lot warmer than 88 when making a forecast.  Regardless, it’ll likely be somewhere between 87-93 in the Portland Metro area and western valleys both Sunday and Monday, with the warmest day for most of us on Monday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF have 850mb temps (around 5,000′) between 17 & 20 both afternoons.  And check out the offshore flow on the WRF-GFS cross-section:

We have 4 days of easterly flow in the lower atmosphere commencing after midnight tonight and continuing through Monday.  East wind will blow through the Gorge most of the time from tomorrow morning through Monday morning, likely strongest on Sunday morning.  The combination of sunny skies, offshore wind flow, and those 850mb temps should be enough to push many of us to right around 90 degrees or even lower 90s…thus the forecast “tweak” today.

There is disagreement Tuesday and beyond on the amount and depth of upper-level troughing later next week.  Here’s the ECMWF 12z ensemble chart:

I notice the operational (blue) run is slower cooling us off than the ensemble.  Our forecast above cools things off quickly Wednesday and Thursday assuming the ensemble mean is probably a better indicator of reality.

The 12z GFS:

shows a little quicker cooldown too.  But it sure stays mild in general through the next 10+ days.  Even I am thinking of planting the warmer weather veggies next week, at least the ones I can “plastic up” when the inevitable two weeks of 55 degree temps and drizzle hits sometime between now and late June.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen 

 

22 Responses to First 90 in 7 Day Forecast This Year…Sun Next 5 Days Too

  1. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Humidity is dropping into the teens already, and the east wind just beginning to get rolling…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006

    La Nina’s finally given up, time to celebrate!!!

  2. bgb41 says:

    ****THE MAY 2012 HEATWAVE CONTEST****
    Submit your guesses below… Deadline to enter will be tonight at midnight. I will add in the TV mets guesses after 5pm.

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/MAY_HEATWAVE_CONTEST/guess_the_temperatures.php

  3. W7ENK says:

    SPECIAL NO SWIMMING IN COLD WATER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    912 AM PDT FRI MAY 11 2012

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/5920027

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

      Yeah, this early in the season it’s too tempting to jump in the water. Backyard sprinklers or kiddie pools are better suited for early season heat waves. Just last Monday I went to a local swimming hole in the 80 degree heat. The river (Toutle) was running hard. Just dipping my toes in it for a second was brutal. One of the main activities in peak summer time on that river is floating in a tube. While the cold water is tolerable while floating all it takes is one bad rapid to flip you and get into trouble real quick. Stay safe everyone.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      …And yet some kid just got pulled the other day from the Willamette river channel the other day after trying to swim across it. He claimed it was part of his military training??? I’m guessing it’s more likely that a bet was made with some of his macho military bud’s than a training exercise. Just a guess? But, yes if your going for a dip in that 50 degree, swiftly flowing, boat jammed, people partying water this weekend, by all means be careful. I just hate hearing the death toll created from beautiful days like these. So many times, carelessness over takes common sense.

  4. bgb41 says:

    5/10/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:77 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 52 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 14 at CABIN LAKE (4560 ft ) & Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (63/14 ) (4560 ft )

  5. W7ENK says:

    YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYY!!!!! 😀

  6. Patterns can change but it seems like we are emerging from a three year period of cool and damp.

  7. Jbpdx says:

    May so far:

    Hillsboro, first 10 days of May:

    7/10 days below average
    5/10 days -7F+ ave
    4/10 with rain
    Overall -3.8F ave

    10 May (Thursday):

    high 60 (-6F ave)
    low 32 (-11F ave)
    -8.5F average

  8. flurball says:

    Ironic. Sun angle now is a day or two from our all time record high in August and yet we are also flirting with our all time record low. How the earth slowly builds up or dissipates heat through the seasons in obvious affect.

  9. bgb41 says:

    Assuming it reaches 90 degrees on 05-14-2012, here would be the final standing for part 1 on the Temperature Frequency Contest for 2012. The winner will be KASSIE97222 if it reaches 90 in this hot spell.

    Great job Kassandra 🙂

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Hey I’m going to complain about coming in 3rd – at least I beat Mark if Monday is the first 90!

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      *NOT going to complain that is…

    • Kassie97222 says:

      Yay! I win, I was just saying on Facebook that I don’t remember entering this… lol

    • bgb41 says:

      Funny how you won and don’t remember. Maybe I should have you pick my powerball numbers. lol

    • Kassie97222 says:

      So whens the next contest?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Hasn’t hit 90 yet 😉 Besides, she was just guessing 😉 😉 Dang it!

    • bgb41 says:

      lol Boydo 🙂

      The next contest will be tomorrow. It will be the “May 2012 Heatwave” contest. I will post a link on here as well in my
      “Fox12 Blog Discussions” facebook group. Building the PHP and MYSQL database right now for it.

  10. runrain says:

    Wouldn’t those 55 deg temps just slow the veggie growth? I.e, not damage them?

  11. muttville1 says:

    fourth…..

  12. philinforestgrove says:

    First

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