First 80 in Portland This Weekend?


I’ve checked out all the maps/models this afternoon and have a few thoughts:

1. This weekend still looks to be the warmest spell of weather we’ve seen this season and the 3rd nice one of the month.

2. Sunday will be the warmest, with light offshore (easterly flow) flow and the warmest airmass overhead.

3. If everything works out just right, we could be in the 80-82 degree range Sunday here in Portland.

4.  Since models have been somewhat inconsistent, and we are right on the edge of the clouds to the west and heat to the east, we decided to keep Sunday’s high at 78 on the 7 Day Forecast.

5.  A significant change in the 12z models was to split the approaching upper level trough later Sunday and Monday.  This has the effect of delaying a cooldown into the middle of next week.

6.  It’s time to see some 70s…look at the past 8 years.  In most Aprils we see at least one day in the 75-85 degree range, except the past two years:

Today turned out pretty much as expected, solid cloud cover and steady rain.  No big surprises there.  Warm fronts are notorious for low cloud decks, light rain, and gloomy conditions all around.  Even a breezy east wind blowing out of the Gorge to remind us that winter weather patterns are never THAT far away…

We get a break in the rain tonight, then the cold front part of this weather system moves south out of Washington and dies right over the top of us tomorrow through early Saturday.  So yes, lots more gloom tomorrow, but after a warmer start we should end up a few degrees warmer.

Saturday, the upper level flow is still expected to amplify offshore, with southerly winds overhead pushing the cold front clouds and rain to our north.  This is a transition day as we go from cloudy and cool to sunny and warm by mid-late afternoon.  Thus a high temp right around 70 as 850mb temps climb to +8 or so.

Sunday things change a bit.  A very light easterly flow in the lower atmosphere throughout the day, abundant sunshine, and 850mb temps between +11 and +15 say June, not April.  According to my “Magic Chart” (not like the Magic Bus up in Alaska), a +12 with offshore flow is somewhere between 78-82 degrees in April.  On April 19-21st, 2009, the last time we had real warm temps in April, temps were 79-83 and 850mb temps were +12 to +16. 

It’ll be interesting to see if we get our first 70 AND first 80 degree temp this weekend; it could happen.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to First 80 in Portland This Weekend?

  1. bgb41 says:

    Assuming we hit our first 70 tomorrow and first 80 Sunday, here are the current weather contest 2012 standings.

    Its a tie for 1st place right now between Garron near “Washington Square” and “Boydo 3”.. Nice guesses boyz!

  2. JJ97222 says:

    It is starting clear off, Sun is coming out in Clackamas we are moving in the right direction to an outstanding weather weekend. Sun Screen anyone?

  3. Salem: Looks like its falling apart off shore. Yea! It was 67 a couple of hours ago with sun breaks and a south wind. Now its 59 and the breeze is out of the north.

  4. muxpux (Longview) says:

    follow this link, and get a code, redeem it in itunes and get the 9.99 weather radio app for free! pretty sweet deal but hurry, i believe its only free the first 60k downloads…

  5. JJ97222 says:

    Went out to get the paper this morning 56 degrees out birds chirping all over the place, what a difference from last year! So long La Nina, bring on the sunny weather and let the fun outdoors begin!

  6. Bring on the death ridge!

    • runrain says:

      Yes! I don’t care what the naysayers say, I like extreme weather. That includes 100 deg – and the almost certain southerly flow that ultimately develops to bring thunderstorm threats!

    • W7ENK says:

      Aee-MEN brothah!!! 😀

    • JJ97222 says:

      Gotta love those 90/100’s, cold beer on the Sandy River in the afternoon then a nice dinner at Tad’s doesn’t get much better than that!

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      MAYBE in August, but not now. I would like it to at least stay green until all the trees have leafed out.

      Last year was awesome because it stayed green until the end of June/early July.

    • JJ97222 says:

      Yes, it is taking forever for the trees to come out again hopefully this weekend they pop. It was nice to not water so much last year but I would trade a 150 bucks on the summer water bill for a dry/hot summer.

    • runrain says:

      ….and cloudy, and cold, and suppressed veggies, and slugs. What’s not to like? 🙂

  7. Garron near Washington Square says:

    …and the maters will be outside the greenhouse for at least the weekend, now looks like Monday and Tuesday as well. Maybe the PNW spring funk a dunk record is finally breaking??? FYI if you self pollinate your maters with a brush like I do, you wanna do the big tomatoes 1st. I found out the hard way that you can miss match your tomato patch and caused some of my big heirloom tomatoes to become dwarf sized versions because I brushed the blossoms on the cherry varieties first. I wondered why my German Johnsons’ were soooo much smaller last year than the year before, even though both springs were about the same.

    Also really looking forward to the May 12th Cliff Mass meeting, that will be awesome to get a better grasp of the models and their future. I requested that day off, my manager asked if Sophie S. and Stephanie K would be there? I realized that trying to explain what “WEATHER MODELS” really were was far less interesting and to complex than just saying…”sure…”

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha! 😆 Re: “weather models”.

      Re: T’maters… Hmmm, interesting, never thought about that. I’ll definitely have to keep that in mind this Summer, could explain why I never had anything over baseball-sized last year. So this begs the question, if you cross pollinate a big breed onto a cherry variety, would the opposite be true? Could you end up with larger than normal cherry tomatoes???

  8. muxpux (Longview) says:

    talked to my buddy today. gonna spend the weekend taking the horses out on some trails. he lives up around 1200′ with some spectacular views. should be awesome

  9. bgb41 says:

    4/19/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:70 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 53 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    High:38 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 23 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    Hermiston Munici (62/33 ) (636 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.06″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.80″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.72″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)

  10. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Looks to me like the front that is progged to move back south is already dying. I gotta dig out those Bermuda shorts and boat shoes and some funky tropical print shirt for the big warm up. And make one of those fru-fru drinks with an umbrella in it. Put on a little Reggea mon.

  11. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFSx for PDX just came out. How does 82 degrees sound for Sunday? The record high for Sunday is 82 set 3 year ago (2009)


  12. Jbpdx says:

    NWS is already showing Saturday as mostly cloudy. Or one of those overcast days with evaporation of all this sump that somebody thinks is “clear”. So it’s already falling apart. And it will be a short-lived blip, not a transition. We’ll be right back to this crap.

    • shawnpippin says:

      Crap? This month has turned out pretty decent so far. 2 really nice weekends and now another. If Saturday isn’t “up to snuff” for you, Sunday will be amazing with offshore flow.

  13. Scott Nelson (550' South Salem) says:

    Bring on the heat!!!!

  14. W7ENK says:

    First 80 in Portland this weekend?

    Oh GOD, I hope so!!!

  15. bgb41 says:

    Bringing the mountain bike out of moth balls tomorrow.

  16. muttville1 says:

    Good god Mark don’t let me down man, I need some sun!!

    Thx, Muttville1 – AKA ‘Sifton’

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