Weekend Outlook Still Improving

I mentioned in yesterday’s post how lucky we have been to see two mild and dry April weekends.  Now we’re seeing increasingly positive indications that we could have the warmest weekend yet on the way. 

Models are still bringing a wet frontal system over us later Thursday through later Friday.  But then as new energy digs way offshore to our southwest, upper level ridging builds strongly just to our east Saturday & Sunday.  As of now, no model has any sort of significant rainfall over us this weekend, and most have none.  We will not be directly under the ridge; if we did, we’d see 80+ degree temps west of the Cascades.  Instead, high temps within 5 degrees of 70 seem to be most likely.  Maybe just below 70 on Saturday afternoon with increasing sunshine, then well into the 70s on Sunday, depending on how close the ridge is.  The ECMWF has the warmest atmosphere over us now, showing 850mb temps up around +12 or +13…that’s 75-80 in the Portland area.  GFS and GEM are cooler.  So we’ve gone 68 & 73 for now, still the warmest we’ve seen so far this spring.  You can see why the ECMWF is warmest in the images below; it has the ridging slightly closer.  These show 500mb height deviations from average for this time of year on the GFS, GEM, & ECMWF.  They are all the ensembles of each model too.  That’s many runs of the same model based on the same initialization time:

Beyond Sunday, models are actually in pretty good agreement that a sharp and cool trough comes down in the northwest flow for Monday and Tuesday.  This is a much cooler, but still drier than average weather pattern since the main energy remains to our north and east. 

Here is the same 500mb deviation chart for 8 days from now…next Wednesday afternoon, the 24th.  The GFS and ECMWF build a ridge just to our northwest in the eastern Pacific, but the GEM keeps more troughing close by:



Regardless, the pattern is very mild for spring through the next 7-10 days with not much rain after Friday morning.  There seems to be decent confidence in the many ensemble members of the ECMWF and GFS at least.  Here are today’s two charts of 850mb temps:





Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

36 Responses to Weekend Outlook Still Improving

  1. W7ENK says:

    New post.

  2. CorbettTez says:

    Just wondering (not complaining!!!) if this pattern coming in for the weekend bringing in the warmer temps, will be driven by gusty East winds near the gorge!? I haven’t read anything this week about it, but it has often been the case lately. Just wondering whether or not we can expect a nice warm, calm weekend, or a mild but windy one out here? If it is to be windy, we’ll just pack a picnic lunch and run away from the wind for a day or two! 🙂 Can’t do anything about it, part of living out here – but knowing it’s coming helps to plan. Thanks for any info!! Enjoy the weekend everyone!!!

  3. David B. says:

    This pattern of sunny weekends followed by mostly rainy weekdays is a little uncanny; the exact opposite of what decades of living in the Northwest has led me to expect. It’s a nice departure from normal, though!

  4. jbpdx says:

    I can’t find it in the NWS records. When was the last April in Portland metro with a majority of days with above average temps?

    • Jbpdx says:

      ….. Or even normal/average temps? To get a normal or average something has to balance, say, last April in which 29 days out of 30 were below average.

  5. …that time of year again, headed for my campgrounds this weekend, nice weather will work out well!!!!…see ya’ll once in awhile till the fall internet season.. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Have a great summer, Larry! I look forward to your occasional check-in. 🙂

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Will try to make it to the Zig Zag area this summer and bring you a fresh brewski!

    • W7ENK says:

      That would be awesome! Let me know via FB PM, and we’ll set a time! 🙂

      I love that rustic little pizza joint right there on 26 across from the end of Lolo Pass Road. It’s only about a 35 minute drive for me…

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, oops… 😳

      Well hey, let’s make a party of it! :mrgreen:

  6. muttville1 says:

    Sad to hear about Dick Clark, but I guess the title of “the world’s oldest teenager” goes to Mark now!

    • W7ENK says:

      Yup. 😦

      R.I.P. Dick Clark. You lived a long and wonderful 182 years§!

      Until his stroke, I honestly believed he would out-live the lot of us§

      Seriously though, his television legacy will probably live longer than his presence on this Earth! He will be missed.

  7. frederm says:

    Dick Clark dies. He will be missed

  8. weathercrazy82 says:

    Sadly it is already 2 degrees warmer now than it got all day yesterday.

  9. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Weird, I logged on in “incognito mode” and there was a Vodka add. But regular mode no add. Erik…..are you messin’ with this site?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      OK, I just tried it again and viola! There is a Youtube add for some goofy penquin show. Que’ paso?

    • W7ENK says:

      Who, what, me? No… I wouldn’t do that§ 😆

      Besides, I ran out of vodka a couple months ago, haven’t bothered restocking yet… Plus, I’m more of a Gin guy. :mrgreen:

  10. This spring is already a vast improvement over last year, no complaints!

    • jbpdx says:

      A little better than last year but that’s not saying much. Last April had 29 of 30 days below normal. This year so far, 11 of 17 below normal. 12 of 17 with rain.

  11. bgb41 says:

    4/17/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:67 at MCDERMITT 26N(4464 ft)
    Low: 48 at CW3932 Central P(1290 ft) & Medford, Rogue V(1329 ft)

    High:31 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 19 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    MCDERMITT 26N (67/34 ) (4464 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.72″ at ROCKWY Rockaway(450ft)

  12. runrain says:

    Yes! Back to great vegetables and fruit in the garden and at the farmers markets!

    • W7ENK says:

      Speaking of vegetables and gardens, check out this brilliant idea I just stumbled into this evening…

      Want to grow a salad garden but have no room? Try gutters! Affix them to a fence, slope them for drainage, and voila!
      By: Eco Village International Network

      I just checked, I have a bunch of old gutter, and I just bought 8 cu/yds of garden soil at Home Depot tonight…
      I’m doin’ it! :mrgreen:

      • Mark Nelsen says:

        Now that is a great idea! I have plenty of room, but in true Whiskey Tango country style, I have a couple of old gutters lying around. I like how they each drain into the next one, so when you overwater it just goes into the one below it. You must mean 8 cubic FEET. I know 7 cubic yards of gravel is a small dump truck’s worth.

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      8 cu/yds of garden soil???

      You’d better have about 2 MILES of old gutter…

      …and about a quarter mile o’ fence, too.

      I can see the ‘miles of mesclun’ from here…

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry, 8 cu/ft. I’ve always sucked at math… my bad!

      And no, it’s not all going into the gutters, but I have like 12 sections that are 8 feet long. I may but two of them in half. The rest of the soil fills out my garden bed. Raspberries, sweet corn, peas, beans, blue pumpkin, 6 upside-down hangie tomato thingies, and who knows what else… I’d like to string up some hops and maybe a run of Pinot Noir, but that may be a bit ambitious for this season??

    • W7ENK says:

      *cut two of them in half…

      GD autocorrect!! >_<

  13. brytwopi says:

    And the third weekend in a row of needing to be inside doing homework…gah.

  14. Kassie97222 says:

    It just got a little breezy out, see quite a bit of precip on the intellicast radar… Are there better radars, I’m still new to this…

  15. karlbonner1982 says:

    Heel yeah, with ensemble means like that, and our more favorable easterly location, I bet we get at least 1 or 2 80+ days before the end of April at DLS. Now all we need is some modest wishcasting to pull the weekend ridge a bit closer and bring low 80s to a few spots west of the Cascades!

  16. W7ENK says:

    Maybe I’ll get the bushes across the front of my house ripped out so I’ll have some space for a garden… 🙂

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      And I can get the last of the broken limbs outta here from last month’s snow storm. And get the slug bait spread around 🙂 I love spring!

  17. A third nice weekend would be so awesome! I have 132 summer bulbs, tubers, and rhizomes to get in the ground. We were able to get so much done this past weekend, including 3 yards of bark dust in. A couple of 70 degrees sure would help in turning the veggie garden and drying it! Crossing my fingers!! 🙂

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