Lots of Rain This Week; And A 3rd Decent Weekend?

April 16, 2012

Today was one of those days in mid Spring when I stepped out of my car and thought “…now this is decent spring weather, it’s not cold and it’s not raining…”  We just had some light post-frontal showers after a nice soaking last night.  I needed that in my garden since I planted my potatoes and broccoli yesterday afternoon.  Funny how quickly it dries out with a few days of sunshine and 60+ temps.

A nice break tonight and most of tomorrow, but then a stronger system moves onshore tomorrow night with steady rain again.  Seems like a break again during the day Wednesday.  This means both tomorrow and Wednesday’s daylight hours may be more dry than wet.

I’m watching a strong warm front and then cold front due over us for Thursday and Friday.  I think these two days could be very gray and wet.    Still not a ton of rain, but a good soaking for the latter half of April.  Here’s our RPM forecast for the next 3 days:

The challenging part of our 7 day forecast is actually Saturday-Monday.    The problem is similar to what we saw a week or so ago; a large trough sets up offshore, with a strong upper-level ridge building just to our east.  Starting with the 12z ECMWF, there has been a hint of a cutoff low diving off the large trough and heading towards California.  This pattern in springtime is usually quite good at stalling the movement of a front towards us.  This can also give us quite warm temps.  The 12z ECMWF showed 850mb temps between +6 and +10 Saturday -Monday afternoons.  That’s warm enough for 70-72 degree highs in April here.  The 12z GFS kept the whole trough together and parked the leftover front from Friday directly over us through the whole weekend…thus our 63-65 degree weekend forecast.  Now the 00z GFS has come in, looking similar to the ECMWF.  It’s even warmer, with 850mb temps around +12.  That’s well into the mid 70s!  Offshore flow at +12 would get us to 80.  So I just changed the forecast to lean towards the ECMWF, thus the 70 degree highs for Sunday and Monday.

Here is the 00z GFS 850mb temp ensemble chart, it shows unseasonably warm weather on the operational run (blue line), but still implies very mild Spring weather even if you take the ensemble average:

 

The 12z ECMWF is mild too…doesn’t appear to be a cool April if these models are correct.

Wouldn’t that be amazing if we could get THREE nice April weekends in a row???  I’ve gotten a ton of work (and play) done outside the past two weekends.  Wouldn’t mind another warm bike ride this weekend too.

By the way, we’re doing far better this April than last.  Check out the numbers through April 16th:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen