An Active Weather Day Ahead, & The Stats

 Tomorrow will be a busy weather day with more widespread showers and a better chance for afternoon thunder and/or hail.

We are cooler this evening…down 5-8 degrees compared to last night at this time.  But further cooling arrives on Thursday as the bulk of an upper level trough moves northeast across the Pacific Northwest.

The cooler air moving in higher up, along with the nice lifting from afternoon sunshine seem to be a good setup for more widespread downpours along with possible hail or thunder.  Maybe a fun afternoon!…annoying for those of you with afternoon sports practice outside though.

We get a nice break Friday, then a weak upper level system drops in from the north on Saturday.  That may or may not give us a mostly cloudy and drippy day Saturday, models seem to be wavering on how far south to bring the moisture with that one.  I’m more confident we have nicer weather Sunday before a long stretch of cooler and wetter weather begins Monday.

BLOG STATS:

Some of the regulars probably notice my posting frequency has gone down over the past week.  There’s a good reason for that, there just isn’t as much weather to talk about from now through the early Fall (most of the time).  I received a relatively nasty email last October.  A reader complained that I had just “lost interest” and didn’t post nearly as “much as I used to”.  Basically he was saying  “what’s wrong with you? You’ve lost your weather mojo”.  Well, if you look back through the winter that sure wasn’t a problem.  Once the weather gets going again I post more often.  I find I also devote less time to other pursuits during the winter season so now it’s catch up time for the rest of life.

You might be amazed at how weather sensitive this blog is to the weather patterns.  Obviously there is more interest with more weather, but the changes are quite dramatic.  For example, on the rainy/snowy day in March we had 26,000 page views.  That was the day I took off on vacation.  When it really is winter and we have an arctic blast or actual snowfall in the city that sticks around?  More like 50,000 to 80,000 page views.  But as soon as the weather goes quiet, regardless of the time of year, it always drops to 1,500 to 3,500 page views each day.  It’s very reliable that way.  Even summer is the same, with spikes when we have thunderstorm patterns and with heat waves.

I think January 2010 was relatively quiet weatherwise…we had 182,000 views that month, but 574,000 in Jan. 2011.  Then 457,000 this year with slower weather (only the mid-month snowstorm and flooding drew people in).  Check out March numbers:  2010=86,000, 2011=139,000, 2012=215,000.  That tracks with the more interesting weather in March the last couple of years.

Chief Meteorologst Mark Nelsen

20 Responses to An Active Weather Day Ahead, & The Stats

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like lightning, gusty winds and small hail!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
    TO THE ALREADY PRESENT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON…AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AND
    POSSIBLY INCLUDE LIGHTNING…GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
    231 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

  2. runrain says:

    We’ve reached today’s convective temp of 50, rising about 5 deg in just the last 15 min or so. And with all the clearing out there right now, we should be generating some pretty powerful mid-April warming and subsequently some hefty shower activity. This could be an exciting afternoon!

  3. Jbpdx says:

    So in other words, aside from a few nice days we’re back to the crappy cold, wet as usual “spring” weather. The three years in a row run continues…

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, at least this spring has been momentarily interrupted by some not-so-crappy weather… once. I guess that’s a step ahead of the last two years. If we’re lucky, it might happen again, too!

  4. W7ENK says:

    I wouldn’t mind a good thunder-boomer or two!

    And, don’t you just love those nasty e-mails from disgruntled bloggers, Mark? Really, you should know better, and you should have a better handle on the number of visitors on your blog, and you need to do things to ensure the reader:poster ratio remains über high, especially during the “dead” season… so yeah, what IS wrong with you and your mojo?!? Sheesh! 😆

  5. runrain says:

    Get out your coin jars – NWS thinks we have a chance of dime size hail today! Wouldn’t mind a couple pennies or nickels thrown in but I say let the midwest keep their quarters and dollars!

  6. *BoringOregon* says:

    Thank’s mark, for your weather blog. Read them every night !!

  7. bgb41 says:

    4/11/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at CW2049 Imnaha(1978 ft)
    Low: 51 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at CALIMUS(6629 ft)
    Low: 25 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    CW2049 Imnaha (74/40 ) (1978 ft )
    ROBERTS BUTTE (71/37) (4263 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.10″ at DW5719 Junction(325ft)
    1.01″ at Eugene, Mahlon S(364ft)

  8. I feel facebook has taken away from this blog as well.

    • k9onyx says:

      Maybe it has taken away some comments from here but not coming here to read Mark’s posts.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The overall visits is actually up the past two years, but I think you’re right about the comments. As I mentioned a few months ago, I could just “move” the blog to Facebook, but that would leave out at least a third (probably more) of the readers.

    • frederm says:

      I thought that Facebook might take a lot away from this blog but I doubt it has much of an effect. There is different data and people that tend to be the “main” ones there. so it makes coming here still somewhat different as well. I think its a great compliment to the blog but does not take away from it. Plus we get to see marks comments here. And sometimes there too. I think it is you Mark or someone with the same name. Actually having the two blogs is great for when those fights break out. Kind of like having a timeout corner.

    • W7ENK says:

      That was the original idea behind the FB group to begin with, a forum to be used as a sandbox for crap that couldn’t/shouldn’t be handled here. It still serves that purpose, but has the added benefit of being one more place to share weather information.

      I think it compliments this blog quite well, actually.

    • gidrons says:

      I don’t understand the appeal of facebook. Its blocked at work but even if it wasn’t, I wouldn’t join. I’d sooner go to western.
      -signed one of the 33%

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like fun afternoons!

    • vernonia1 says:

      e aw e aw (donkeys) lol

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Keep a eye on the sky. Hahaah!

      INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT NORTHEAST EARLY THU MORNING…WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR A
      STRAY THUNDERSTORM. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY…AS NAM/GFS BRING A POCKET OF SUB -30 DEG C/500 MB AIR
      ACROSS THE DISTRICT. THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT LIKELY SWINGS THROUGH RIGHT AT THE BEST TIME FOR SOLAR HEATING…MIDDAY TO EARLY
      AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS GENERATES 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE AND SUBZERO LIFTED INDICES FOR THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT 18Z…SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
      WOULD NOT PROPAGATE NORTHWARD DURING THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 500-700 J/KG IS NOT TOO SHABBY FOR THE PAC NW THIS TIME OF
      YEAR. MEANWHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THU…AROUND 50 DEG F…WHICH WE WILL EASILY SURPASS. NAM
      BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS UP TO 30 KFT THU AFTERNOON FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS THESE
      CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SEEM TO POINT TO PLENTY OF SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A MORE VIGOROUS BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO…IT APPEARS THE
      SHEAR PROFILE IS A BIT TOO WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
      AN EYE TO THE SKY THOUGH THURSDAY.

  10. Hoping for more t-storms and a funnel cloud or two or three or more…….

    47°…0.62″ rain today…Quarter-inch between 4:30 and 5pm tonight.

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