Improving Weekend Forecast

Here’s the latest forecast for the weekend, it looks like a pretty decent Easter Weekend on the way:

We’ve been waffling around a bit on the weekend forecast, generally going for a dry Saturday and a few showers Sunday.  4 days ago we had a nice Sunday as well.  That original forecast might turn out okay.

So why the changing forecasts?  The general weather pattern has been well agreed on by models; a cold upper-level trough lingering in the eastern Pacific this weekend and early next week, with a warm and building upper-level ridge just to our east.  We are inbetween the two, meaning that slight changes in the models east or westward with clouds and/or bands of rain makes a huge difference in the forecast.

The 00z models seem to be holding the clouds and rain slightly farther to the west (offshore) as the trough’s main energy remains offshore, it can be seen the in the 500mb forecast heights over us; thus the improving forecast.  We will be in upper level southerly flow for about 3 days from tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.  In the spring, that’s a very mild pattern and you’ll notice our 7 day forecast is quite a bit warmer than what we’ve been seeing lately.  Instead of high temps around 50, we’ll be 60 or so.  And after tonight, low temps jump a good 10-15 degrees too.

One “fly in the ointment” is an east wind developing through the Gorge tonight through Easter Sunday due to high pressure over SW Canada and deep low pressure offshore seen here on the image to the left.    Those of you out in Corbett, Camas, Troutdale, Washougal; sorry, but it won’t feel too much warmer due to the gusty wind.  Of course that’s offshore flow which helps to warm up the rest of us.

Big Picture:  It’s finally going to feel like April!

Weekend high temperatures are totally dependent on cloud cover.  With that offshore flow and 850mb temps around +5 on Sunday, we could be well into the mid 60s or even higher if skies are mostly sunny.  I’m assuming there will be plenty of cloud cover and temps in the lower 60s.  Our 00z RPM came in significantly warmer with a high somewhere in the upper 60s Sunday.   It also shows very little rainfall through Monday afternoon, once again due to slightly higher upper level heights over us keeping most action offshore.  The 00z WRF-GFS keeps all rainfall to our southwest through at least Sunday morning too: 

Here is the latest ensemble chart from the GFS, normal or above normal (average) for 7-10 days, that would be nice:

And the ECMWF, seems to be a little cooler in general:

10:20pm Late Breaking Weather Picture:  Wow, Don Best did it again…sunset tonight at Rockaway Beach.  That INCLUDES, a couple holding hands, sun between the rocks, vivid color, and a happy dog nearby.

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

51 Responses to Improving Weekend Forecast

  1. JJ97222 says:

    I am really new to this blog to pick up what your putting down Mr Data! What is the story?

  2. W7ENK says:

    Kyle? Time for you meds, dude.
    Seriously, take your pills. o_O

  3. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    18Z is hinting at our first 80 degree weather in late April, but that is La La Land of course. Would be nice to see, though.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      No it wouldn’t. Yesterday was perfect. I still want about 10″ more rain before July too. Then we can have our sunny and dry every day regime.

    • JJ97222 says:

      All the models are pointing to warmer weather just as it should be this time of the year. Perfect for all of the spring sports for our kids. Much better than last year, it’s no fun sitting in car with your heater to watch your kid play tennis!

  4. bgb41 says:

    4/8/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:75 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft)
    Low: 55 at Fremont Bridge W(270 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:38 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 21 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    MCDERMITT 26N (73/25 ) (4464 ft )
    Rome (73/25) (4049 ft)

  5. Not bad for an Easter weekend. I agree, the cool start with the dew and frost yesterday that prevented me from doing the yard work that morning, did lower the grade, but today gets an A, so I say A- for the whole weekend.

    I don’t remember having even two nice days in early April last year, so I saw this spring isn’t as much of a bust SO FAR…

  6. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    72 and a DP of 10? That can’t be right, lol

  7. Garron near Washington square says:

    Wow…Bravo! My one Easter wish was to bring spring back from my trip to North Dakota, and wahlaaaa!!!!

    Every day was absolutely beautiful back there with one exception. Yesterday! Friday we went from 70 and breezy to 30 and sleety. That only lasted for 1/2 a day then back to EXTREMELY blue skies and wind. They had wind advisories up for the entire rest of the week in excess of 55-65 mph. I always take advantage of the wonderfully clear night skies and star gazing back there. It may only last another year or two as they’ve discovered a huge oil reserve and the masses are moving back to North Dakota bringing tons of oil trucks and pollution. The traffic in town (Dickinson, N.D.) has gone from driving in the country to driving on HWY 99 through Tigard at rush hour, and no infrastructure to handle the load. CRAZY!

    Always nice to be back, even better to be back and have the nice weather follow, even if for only a couple of days…Oh yeah, the Willamette river from the air, swollen like a bad prostate! Seriously, quite the sight! Wish they’d let you take pictures while landing…

    • I was in Dickinson about 3 yrs ago. My son’s in-laws are descendants of the original settlers in the Belfied area. The last Federal land give away and probably the least productive. Ukrainians came and eked out a living somehow. Now, rolling lands with endless fields of wheat. And the wind! And yes, the oil companies.

  8. weathercrazy82 says:

    This is the only way to bust on a holiday…toward dry and much warmer 🙂

    I hit 70.7 here in BG.

  9. shawnpippin says:

    70 out here in Cornelius… Whew it sure feels “Hot” out there. Not use to feeling this kind of weather.

  10. Mr Data says:

    I give yesterday a B+ because for starters it was below freezing in the morning and sunny but by noon clouds filtered in from the S and SW eliminating any chance for a decent sunset.

    Actually there wasn’t ANY sunset yesterday. 😦

    Hopefully today Mark pushes the pretty *sunset* button that he has in his studio.

    Man I would LOVE to see all the weather controls he has in there for his viewing area. 😉

  11. 61 deg. at noon. Could it get 70 today? Feels so good, makes me want to twist and shout!

    • Mr Data says:

      I’ve been noticing everytime Mark calls for clear skies since 2008 we’ve been having high clouds come in around noon quickly killing the sunshine.

      It happened last April too on a Sunday believe it or not.

      Hopefully today the trend is broken?

      • Mark Nelsen says:

        I said hazy sunshine today with the clouds coming and going. Forecast 65, it hit 68 at PDX. Tough call today and it was totally dependent on cloud cover and how much east wind we got.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! Lets Twist n Shout!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Sorry Mark. Can’t resist sometimes.

  12. ‎54°….for my low…this am….Nice!

  13. JJ97222 says:

    Two dry mornings in a row and the week looks great, looks like La Nina is losing its grip and we are heading for a much better April than last year that is two big thumbs up!

  14. bgb41 says:

    4/7/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & TILLAMOOK(11 ft)
    Low: 48 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 9 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    Rome (61/14 ) (4049 ft )

  15. Kassie97222 says:

    Where did the sun go!?!?!? Dark clouds and a breeze??? Still a bit warm though… Never thought 59 degrees or so would feel warm…

  16. Mr Data says:

    Somebody PLEASE tell Mark to push that *sunshine* button to bring it back.

    I slept thru most of this morning after a rough night so I only saw bits and pieces of the sunshine and I wouldn’t have believed Mom about the beautiful morning otherwise so I guess it DOES get sunny in April around here.

  17. W7ENK says:

    Absolutely lovely today! The sky to the South is gathering dark and looks a little stormy though… o_O

  18. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Got down in the middle 20’s last night. Wasn’t expecting that hard of a freeze. Not sure if the newly planted grass seed will make it.

  19. Mr Data says:

    Did I ever mention during the heavy afternoon downpour a few days ago I netted 0.40 on my rain bucket of mixed rain/hail?

  20. Mr Data says:

    The entire sky is actually overcast but the grey loo[king parts are towards the S and SW.

    It’s starting to cool off a tad bit too.

  21. Mr Data says:

    You better make it sunny tomorrow and not make me dissapointed tomorrow what with the grey looking clouds coming in from the S and SW.

    The once beautiful sunshine is now filtered out and a light breeze is forming that was non existent most of the day.

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I want this hat/gear on my car. Hahaah!

  23. JJ97222 says:

    My kids are coloring eggs on the patio in the sun, can’t recall that for along time. Great call on the weather Mark I am sure you are making alot of Easter egg hunters happy!!

  24. bgb41 says:

    ***2012 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY CONTEST***

    Deadline is April 9th to submit your guesses at below link

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/CONTEST/add.php

  25. Bright, cheerful, chilly morning…..37.5° after a low of 28.6…

  26. Mr Data says:

    Hi. There are high clouds trying to filter in from the SW now starting to cover up the once bright moon. It won’t be long before the moon is totally covered within the next hour or 2 if this keeps up.

    Is there a back-door front swinging thru that’s going to send Mark’s forecast to hell?

    • JJ97222 says:

      Beautiful sunrise with blue sky with high clouds looks better than the past 5 mornings, moving the right direction!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yes…Suite #666 has been prepared for me and my forecast down there Kyle. The fiery bus is leaving at 9am.

    • Mr Data says:

      I wasn’t making fun of you.

      I was just teasing your forecast because in fact the clouds are now a greyish look towards the southwest and the sun is filtered out.

      I wonder what tomorrow will bring? It better still be sunny Mark! I’m counting on you to not let me down.

  27. bgb41 says:

    4/6/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 40 at DW9392 Bay City(84 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus(185 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft) & OT Jct(173 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:20 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 8 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (49/10 ) (5330 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.34″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.58″ at HORSE CREEK(3402ft)

  28. JJ97222 says:

    Its going to be nice to kick the 30s out of here for low temps for a while, it may actually feel like normal and much better than last year. We maybe setting course for some nice weather!

    • josh says:

      yeah i hope my flowers can survive tonight ugh oh well cant wait for a nice sunny start to a holiday weekend

  29. JJ97222 says:

    I knew you could pull that rabbit out of the hat Mark! Great Easter weekend ho!

  30. SeaTownDanny says:

    A dry Easter in the Northwest would be something. Up here in Seattle, saw here that we haven’t had one since 2004: http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/

  31. philinforestgrove says:

    Great news regarding Sunday’s weather Mark!

  32. Momto4 says:

    Baseball starts tomorrow – thanks for the positive outlook as we’ll be watching 3 games + opening day! Happy Easter weather nuts! 😉

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