Weekend Update: Snow Stays Above 1,500′ & Rainy Sunday

The two sunny and warm days were sure nice, but now it’s back to a cold March reality.  We ease into the wetter weather with lots of clouds, but not much rain Saturday.  Then on Sunday we turn breezier and wetter.

A strong storm is still expected to hammer the Pacific Northwest on Monday.   In fact 00z models tonight are even deeper with the surface low pressure center (965-970 mb) moving north off the Coast compared to 24 hours ago.  But, and this is a big one, the low is forecast to turn north much farther offshore, keeping possible damaging wind mainly offshore or to our north.  Check out the 00z GEM, GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all for 18z (11am) Monday.  

Still a good windstorm for the coastline though on Monday morning.  Here in the valleys we don’t get big windstorms with low pressure centers moving so far north, to the northern tip of Vancouver Islands.

After Monday, a chilly post-frontal air mass brings snow showers down into the hills again, at least down to 1,500-2,000′, possibly a bit lower.  Then lots more rain through the following week.

By the way, for the weather groupies, don’t forget we go to Daylight Time on Sunday.  That means 00z becomes 5pm and 12z is 5am.  Yes, we have to wait one more hour for all weather maps!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

108 Responses to Weekend Update: Snow Stays Above 1,500′ & Rainy Sunday

  1. Kyle says:

    Tuesday I’m going to the doc and get seen since my symptoms according to my parents is a sinence headache or however the *beep* you spell that word.

    My head hurts too much to care right now. Hopefully the little doctor clinic doesn’t lose power comes Tuesday! 🙂

    I haven’t had to see the doctor for a sickness for several years other then having my ears cleaned out when crap gets built up.

  2. chris says:

    mark where are you?

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Now a Hurricane force wind warning for the coastal waters. We’re not that far from the coast. Batten down the hatches!

    ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1033 PM PDT SUN MAR 11 2012

    COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
    WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
    1033 PM PDT SUN MAR 11 2012

    …HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PDT MONDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
    UNTIL 1 PM PDT MONDAY.

    * WINDS…SOUTH WIND RISING TO 35 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 TO
    75 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS MONDAY MORNING.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hope it doesn’t get too exciting!

    • it has just really started to ramp up @ waldport in the past 1/2 hour or so. no weather station @ this house so no info. last night/this am was quite blustery and today the beaches were littered with many logs and the waves were the biggest they’d been all week. even close to low tide, the water was pushed much higher up than we’d seen all week. on a few beaches south of yachats there was not much sand between logs/rocks and ocean.

    • agreed! i get to drive home in this tomorrow. stay safe!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Not a good time to be near the water. Destructive waves are scary!

      The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a high surf
      warning… which is in effect from 5 am to 11 PM PDT Monday. The high surf advisory is no longer in effect.

      * Seas: combined seas will quickly build late tonight as very
      strong wind creates a large wind wave component. Combined seas
      of 28 to 32 feet can be expected late tonight through Monday.
      Seas will slowly ease to 21 to 24 feet late Monday afternoon…
      then under 20 feet by late Monday evening.

      * Impacts: exercise extreme caution along beaches.
      Unpredictable and destructive waves may wash over beaches…
      jetties and other structures with no warning. Beach erosion
      is possible. This is not a time to be near the water.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    With the warm sw flow aloft this week the chances of valley floor snow in western Oregon are just about zilch. If you think otherwise you are indeed wishcasting. Even if this were mid January it would be difficult to get low level snow. Instead it is mid March. Winds are another matter. We could see winds of 45-50mph in the valley. Blustery but no widespread damage. The weather over the next couple of weeks looks dismal. Oh well summer isn’t too far away.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      That is what I was thinking , but the RPM is continuing to be persistent in showing widespread snow (1 to 3″) in the Willamette Valley. So it makes me think that maybe it is on to something. Perhaps precip intensity or a brief let up of the winds combined with timing during the overnight/early morning hours could lead to widespread snow. Big ifs out there for whether or not this happens.

    • Kyle says:

      Pretty much what I expect too except only a few stations will probably hit 45 and they will be erratic winds too.

      Nothing wind spread unlike that one October morning several years ago that winds topped at 45mph making the lights flicker here or December 2006 where the winds hit 50mph or so causing them to go out for a couple of hours where a tree branch hit Main Street knocking out power for the whole hill!

  5. Austin(Cornelius) says:

    Are we ready pappoose?
    Time to hide in our storm shelters for the night…or maybe two.
    Too bad I have to go to school tomarrow. -_-
    I can always watch out the window during my chem. Class! 😀 or teacher assistant, depending which day it is. Forest grove high is just one big storm shelter itself I guess. 🙂

  6. W7ENK says:

    MARK!?! We’re waiting for your insight, where ARE you?!?

    • chris says:

      i don’t know but i hope he comes back and is like gear up boys were in for a big one 🙂 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      Or. Sorry folks but it appears our big storm came last night and we will have off and on showers the next few days but some of them could turn thundry with tons of cold core convection!

      (which usually means Silverton/Molalla area strikes out unless it’s a SW flow) :p

  7. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    It’s below zero up at camp muir. About as cold as its been up there the last couple marginal snow events. If that means much

  8. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    If only this weather pattern was here 5/6 weeks ago! >_<

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Light snow sounds like fun to me. Scappoose is in the snow!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=pqr&iname=Active_Screen2L&size=1&force=no

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