ECMWF Weekly Maps; Cool 2nd Half of March?

Twice a week I get maps from a 30 day ECMWF run.  1 map for each week with the 500mb heights averaged out for the whole week.  Obviously this smooths out deep lows or fast moving troughs or ridges, but it gives us a good idea of what general weather pattern might be headed our way.  Specifically, last night’s run shows troughiness (cooler than average weather) through most of the rest of the month.  Here are the first two weeks:

Then the following two weeks, which takes us into early April.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps; Cool 2nd Half of March?

  1. Jbpdx says:

    And let me guess, cooler than normal April and May and
    June and ….

  2. Today’s stats for me, almost 70°. Although I am not sure about that 0.02″ of rainfall. That would be a lot of frost.

  3. Looks like the next couple weeks will be some fine skiing to the Spring Break crowd. I remember several years ago when the first part of Spring Break saw snow down to about 1000′ and by the end of the week it was like 70 deg. I’m rooting for 70!

  4. W7ENK says:

    Visible line now South of Seattle, should be swinging in over Portland shortly… 🙂

    http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmerica

  5. Hit 66 today up by the Falls after a low of 30 this morning. Already back down to 44 under clear skies. Probably more snow up here this weekend.

  6. BEn T. says:

    Rod Hill is saying this, “Our weekend looks wet. Mostly light showers Saturday, but heavier rain Sunday. The air behind an early Sunday front will lower snow levels to near sea level Monday morning. I am watching the possibility of yet another brief snow dusting to begin next week.”

  7. Karl Bonner says:

    The mountains could definitely use some more snow, and we’ve gotten a fair number of spring-like days so far this year. There will probably be some kind of nice weather, even if only for a day or two, in the 2nd half of March. Then we can look forward to April.

    After the warm temps today (65 @ DLS) and probably back into the mid 60s tomorrow, I think all the early spring flowering stuff will really get triggered!

  8. W7ENK says:

    When can we get some large red-shifted anomalies bulging up from the South over our area???

  9. Wendy-Silverlake, Wa says:

    There are conflicting reports everywhere about how much rain and when the rain starts for Friday night/Saturday. I’ve got the opportunity to aerate my yard Saturday morning, but I’m wondering if it might not be to wet. Any ideas? I guess it just depends on what direction the rain is coming from.

  10. Do we have any data to show how accurate these models usually are a month later, so we can tell if it will completely due a 180, or as usual, in the PNW, we have to wait and see!

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