Interesting Model Runs For Monday

March 8, 2012

It’s only one run, out of many each day, but both 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF show a deep low pressure system (the first in many weeks) racing northward off the Pacific Northwest Coastline.  This is swinging around a large upper-level trough that dominates the eastern Pacific Saturday through next week. 

00z GFS for 10am Monday:

00z ECMWF for 10am Monday:

Neither of these are “perfect” if you want a big windstorm inland, but the point of this post is that my meteorological ears perk up when I see deep lows close to the coast. This is something to keep a close eye on.

Mark


Northern Lights Tonight?

March 8, 2012

The picture above is from www.spaceweather.com taken in Iceland earlier this evening.  As I mentioned somewhere else online today, forecasting northern lights (Aurora Borealis) is way out of my pay grade!  I have a science degree in meteorology; solar wind, geomagnetic storms and the like are not my specialty.  However, here’s a great link to an experimental NOAA site that uses the Ovation-Prime model to forecast areas that could be seeing the lights in the sky.  Here’s the site:

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

And here is the latest image; the auroral oval is much larger tonight compared to last night at this time.  We MIGHT see something the next few hours.  Keep an eye on the northern sky and don’t even bother looking if you are in the middle of the city.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


ECMWF Weekly Maps; Cool 2nd Half of March?

March 8, 2012

Twice a week I get maps from a 30 day ECMWF run.  1 map for each week with the 500mb heights averaged out for the whole week.  Obviously this smooths out deep lows or fast moving troughs or ridges, but it gives us a good idea of what general weather pattern might be headed our way.  Specifically, last night’s run shows troughiness (cooler than average weather) through most of the rest of the month.  Here are the first two weeks:

Then the following two weeks, which takes us into early April.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


64 degrees at 3pm! Spring is Here, For Now…

March 8, 2012

What a change…a much warmer atmosphere, dry and warm east wind, and solid sunshine mean temps right now running 10-15 degrees above yesterday afternoon:

One more warm day tomorrow, then it’s back to the “usual March programming” for the weekend.  Of course that would be clouds and showers with cooler temps.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen