Everything proceeding according to plan, although heavier than expected precipitation brought the sticking snow level a little lower than I would have thought. Still lots of heavy showers passing through the rest of the day, but now most sticking will be well above 1,000′ and partially melt between those showers. Mine is slowly melting here at 1,000′.
All the rest of the forecast info on the previous post still applies, so I won’t rehash it until this afternoon when I’m at work.
850mb temp was -6.5 deg over Salem this morning and with heavy showers that was enough to bring sticking snow well down into the hills. The air mass temp cools maybe 2 more degrees in the next 24 hours.
Two things I notice on maps/models this morning:
1. Lighter or very little precipitation after sunset this evening all through tomorrow; could be less snow at/above 1,000′ then we saw this morning? Check out the 2 different 24 hour snowfall forecasts from the WRF-GFS and our own RPM. I’m really surprised our 4km RPM shows nothing over the higher hills in the Valley. This tells me it’s a lack of precipitation and not an issue of “is it cold enough”.
2. Tuesday morning is going to be a close call here in Portland. It could be a significant late season wet snowstorm in the central/eastern Gorge.
And for fun, here’s the 12z GFS ensemble 850mb chart:
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen