12z ECMWF Ensemble Chart

Good agreement on it’s members through Sunday afternoon now (the “27th” line).  That’s 00z on the 27th which would be 4pm Sunday the 26th.  After that there are some members that bring real arctic air south, and others that warm it up.  Interesting that the very warm members are gone and every single one is below 0 deg. through Tuesday the 28th. 

I would say the operational 12z ECMWF is very similar to last year’s late February event, but without the easterly flow?  Although last year we didn’t get a big blast from the east…gust to 30 mph at TTD & PDX.  Real dry after Saturday night too.  It has less than .05″ from Sunday 4am to Tuesday afternoon.  Sunny and cold if it comes to fruition.  Lows in the 20s and highs near 40 Sunday-Tuesday.   Then a system sliding by just to the north Tuesday-Thursday for marginal (520+ thickness) snow chances again but onshore flow.

35 Responses to 12z ECMWF Ensemble Chart

  1. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    Does anyone know if the operational run of the GFS was warmer or cooler then the ensembles mean?

  2. Sharin says:

    I SAY – “Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow”. I am doing the BIG SNOW DANCE as I type. I love you, Mark Nelson!!!!

  3. yevpolo1990 says:

    ouch, 00z gfs hurts….thats some ancient salt to the nasty wound…

  4. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    00z GFS has gone nuts, i would discount this run for now.

  5. snodaze says:

    0z dream-crusher in 20 min.

  6. snodaze says:

    Marks a post whore again…

    Must me “almost” snow time again…

    — either that, or SP is making noise somewhere! lol. — OR — dare I say, he’s doing his private snow dance? >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

  7. o.c.paul says:

    Can this hold? Will it be epic? I’m sweatin bullets.

    • Probably not epic. But I’m betting on it holding together and being pretty darn chilly for the end of Feb. Flakes in the air this weekend.Like last year.
      I’m just hoping we don’t repeat the next four months of last year!

  8. stormblown says:

    Hey Mark, I know thats not your 7-day, there is no mention of snow throughout… Why would the morning team not trust your mention of snow last night? So inept really.

    • stormblown says:

      Oh, and it skips Tuesday all together.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Definitely not feeling the love…

    • I’m filling in for Mark tonight. The way I’m interpreting it… there is a chance of a few flakes or maybe a light mix at times, but it looks too dry to me Sunday and Monday right now to be dropping snowflakes on the 7 day and freaking everybody out. Not to mention… the 00z looks a little warmer. I’m staying with daytime temps in the 40s and no sticking snow through Monday. We’ll see…

    • yevpolo1990 says:

      OH snap, Bmac has spoken!

    • stormblown says:

      Do snowflakes on a 7-day really freak people out, or give an accurate representation of what the models are showing. It might make rumors fly around town and give a boost to our local economy at the tire and grocery stores. I don’t see much harm in that.

      The 00z gfs just came out and after the 7-day was made. Before that models were showing definite snow showers. No harm in admitting you can’t read models.

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      Stormblowin- Agreed. Take emotion out of the equation and make the forecast. Let us dictate how we feel when we look at the 7 day.

    • No need to get personal, stormblown. I have been doing this for a while… I can read the models just fine. Plus, I have a great mentor in Mark. Bottom line is, my confidence in snow is not as high as yours about next weekend. Even before the 00z came out, I thought it looked too dry. I’ve been pointing out on the air today that the models are all over the place and we’re uncertain about the upcoming weekend. When I’m confident and the time comes to put a snowflake on the 7 day… I’ll happily do it. After all… I’d love a little “last gasp” of winter just like you guys. Looking forward to the next model run…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      No Brian, we at FOX12 officially don’t want a last gasp of winter. I decided that at 10:38pm last Wednesday night. Please make your personal opinions conform to that!

    • stormblown says:

      It was never personal toward you. My comment was initially directed at whomever was forecasting today. I honestly only knew it wasnt Mark forecasting.

      The models had been in excellent agreement that it was cold enough for snow to sea level. Regardless to the amount of moisture models show, there was showers for next Sunday/Monday of all rain on the 7-day.

    • LOL! Mark if you “stick a fork” in winter… you can always take the fork out and throw it back on the grill.

    • stormblown says:

      If you respect your “mentors” opinions it wound be counterintuitive to go against it. Your reasons may be based more on the anxiety that some motorists or seniors have toward seeing a few flakes on a 7-day.

    • The GFS 00Z and now the Euro 00Z may not bring snow to sea level. -6 to -7 850 MB temps with onshore flow won’t cut it in late Feb…lol

  9. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    LOVE the 18z! 850mb temps drop to -11 over Portland and still brings in enough moisture for a decent snow event all the way down to Sea level Saturday Night-Monday. After that it dries out a bit, but stays cold and brings back some on and off chances for snow throughout the extended. Amazing run.

  10. W7ENK says:

    Headed back toward Portland, light rain in Boardman, dry and partly sunny in The Dalles!

  11. alohabb says:

    Well I see an adjustment for the 7day coming then!

  12. vinnybob says:

    Bring on the sloppy snow.

  13. bgb41 says:

    Really hoping we don’t get 28 days of rain this March like last year.
    Here is a reminder of how annoyingly damp March 2011 was.

  14. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    Thanks for the update Mark, Liking the trend, its all starting to come together nicely, now if only we could pull in some more moisture to work with.

  15. W7ENK says:

    Weeeeeeeee! What a ride so far, huh?!?

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