ECMWF Weekly Maps

Fresh batch from last night’s ECMWF 00z run.  It had a pretty cold trough quickly moving through here about 10 days from now (the 12z does too).  Definitely good for snow into the hills around the Valley, and possibly lower if everything were to work out right before it dries out.

Week1 (remember this is averaged for a whole week):

Week2, starting on Sunday the 26th.  Interesting to note that the cold trough at Day 10 hardly shows up here due to ridging just before and just after it:

Week3, starting Monday, March 5th.  Newer trough to the north is a bit farther west with slightly below average heights over us:

Week4, looks cool and wet with a trough just off the West Coast, this is Monday the 12th-Sunday the 18th…mid-March:

As for that 12z ECMWF, I was “alerted” to it by Steve Pierce via a voicemail. So as soon as I got to work, I looked it up. Definitely cold at Day 9 & 10 (NEXT weekend, not this coming weekend). 850mb temps as a shot of cold air comes in from the north/northwest behind a cold front. I was scared for a minute after yesterday’s pronouncement.  But after checking some other data I felt better.

1.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble chart shows the operational one is the 2nd coldest on the morning of Sun, the 26th out of 51 ensemble members:

2. The GFS and GEM are milder, with weaker troughing:

Compare that with the ECMWF ensemble map for the same time:

We still have a cool trough this weekend, although not too chilly with the freezing level not even getting down to 2,000′ until possibly Sunday morning. Those of you at/above 1,500′ have a good chance at a few inches of snow Saturday through midday Sunday. Below that it will be either nothing or brief accumulation of snow/hail in a downpour Saturday.  It’ll be a strong onshore flow (SW wind) all day Saturday which isn’t very helpful to keep snow levels low either.

All models show a brief 2nd surge of chilly air around the 24th-26th, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF.   No models show a blast of arctic air with northeast or east wind like we had in February 2006 and February 2011.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

11 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

    • o.c.paul says:

      My favorite excerpt from that article:

      “There’s always going to be some natural variability. Every episode of high temperatures or extreme cold isn’t climate change. Sometimes it’s just weather!”

      Amen.

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hope you aren’t hanging yourself Mark. The sloppy morning snow that melts quickly, would still put you on a list of people to hate, for the folks involved in the fender bangers! Hahaah!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      My thoughts exactly the past 24 hours…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      What scares me the most is when you get a evening shower, followed by clearing. Good chance of skating after that. And you can not realize it until you’re doing 360’s down the road! Been there, done that!

  2. It’s ALWAYS 8-10 days out….

  3. Karl Bonner says:

    Would be ESPECIALLY fun if this weekend gets snow down to 1000′, then the ridge next week is close enough to give us sunny and 55-60 degree highs along I-5, maybe marginally cooler in the Gorge. Then a good shot of cold air and at least some hilltop snow for the 25th/26th, or better yet brief AM accumulations for a fair number of lowland spots.

    An exciting, yet pretty realistic, scenario!

  4. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Here is hoping for the 24th-26th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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