ECMWF Weekly Maps & Ensemble Charts

Fresh maps…last night’s 00z ECMWF run out to one month:

First week 500mb height anomaly from Feb 13th-19th.  This starts Monday next week.  Slightly below average heights over us and the last of weak ridging offshore:

2nd week – Feb 20th-26th.  Ridge attempts to rebuild slightly farther offshore, cool troughs drop over us for below average heights:

3rd week – Feb 27th-Mar4th.  Continued westward movement of features as cool upper-level troughing is centered a bit farther offshore.  Cool and showery March weather arrives right on cue?

4th week – Mar5th-11th.  More of the same, slightly below average heights with troughing centered a little to our west.  Continued cool and showery.

So could we see a cold blast in the next 2+ weeks? GFS and ECMWF ensemble members say it’s unlikely. Although both emphasize what you see above, cooler than average weather.  Some members from both models also suggest snow could return to the foothills at times with 850mb temps below -5 here and there.  

First the GFS:

Then the ECMWF:

64 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps & Ensemble Charts

  1. Jeremy KF7NGT says:

    I was watching KOIN 6 weather this evening (not my choice) and Bruce Sussman said tonight’s sunset is later than any sunset so far this year. Is it true Mark?

    face-palm…

  2. robwaltemate says:

    Looks to be getting cold here Wednesday am on the Long Beach Peninsula. I would bet we get below 32F if the sky stay clear.

  3. bgb41 says:

    2/12/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at PACCTY-2 Pacific( 28 ft)
    Low: 47 at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 8 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    COLD SPRINGS (48/13 ) (4640 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.78″ at Sexton Summit(3837ft)
    0.58″ at AGNESS2(247ft)

  4. SilentReader says:

    I always find it interesting when people declare that our winters, in the Portland area, are not cold and snowy enough and that we somehow have gotten gypped.

    Well, have we? No. we are not known for much to any snow in the winter months at below 500 feet. Even in a month where Portland can show 1-4 inches of snow as average does not mean it happens every year. Come to think of it most of our averages come from big dumps that get averaged lower over time. 2008 comes to mind. got quite a bit of snow. That will get averaged out over the next 10 years to be not much.

    sorry we don’t get epic winters here but this should not be anything new. I don’t think things are really much different than any given winter in the PNW. some frosty mornings, and cold rains with some wet snow when things line up right. now that is pretty normal.

    If you don’t like the winters the last 2 years then I am sorry to tell you that you will most likely not like the next 10 years either. Might be one or 2 that are interesting but otherwise pretty much the same. Those looking for the rivers to freeze and month long snows plus below zero temps, I am telling you, it is just not going to happen.

    Now I am not a downer when it comes to our weather. I guess I am just a realist. I don’t let myself model ride nor let my emotional state get changed by near misses. When the rare stuff does happen it is quite fun and special. But when it doesn’t, Well, it is just normal PDX weather.

    what really gets me is when we do get that mythical snow and even downtown Portland gets a few inches how people still complain. It was not enough. What? If you got any you beat the average.

    • Austin-Felida says:

      look who is complaining now lol^

    • Shawn says:

      Its True.. I mean think about it We’re at SEA LEVEL relatively close to the ocean. The odds are stacked against us when it comes to snow.. Welcome to the Willamette valley.

    • Brad says:

      silent reader not so silent…

    • Kyle says:

      I tried to make this into two part posts which I hope shows up that way. :p

      Part 1:

      Well said Silent Reader. We really don’t average much snow here in which from time to time I get upset about it BUT I soon realized what you said just now and it sanps me back to reality.
      I mean snaps me back to reality.

      The reason THIS winter is a REAL bummer is because usually La Nina’s bring deep snow to the mountains which is good for water-pack in the summer and an Artic Blast or two.
      Plus it’s rare to have a double feature La Nina without any snow in the mountains unless we have a total wipe out in the spring and get buried with more snow then we know what to do with like in Europe.

      Part 2:

      .
      The Sierras snowfall right now is almost non-existent.

      It’s very odd to have a deep La Nina and little to no mountain snowfall especially two years in a row.

      Last year we were saved by a cold wet spring but the actual winter up till late Feb was depressing as well then the mountains even in California got dumped with record snow burying a lot of towns.

      The little town of Quincy California right AROnd Three Thousand Feet got 2 feet in less then a week and Tahoe was open well after the 4th of July and I won’t lie..

      (By the way Quincy is not really considered a town even though it’s big enough to be one with 5K people since the place is unincorporated with no government of it’s own)

      The big *what if* scenario is since the solar winds got killed and solar cycle 25 not looking to be as active as thought.

      (The Met Office released a paper saying it could be as weak or weaker then the Daulton Minimum)
      That will be a major wild card.

      As usual Mother Nature will eventually over-ride any man made effects and when she does so it will be with a vengance.

      Last time the sun went quiet a few years ago it did not take long for global temps to start dropping.

    • W7ENK says:

      Mmm hmm… Okay, now take a look at this:

      … and say all that again.

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s funny, Portland’s average annual snowfall for the 1871-1899 timeframe — almost 30 years — was 19.2 inches. The “epic” winter of 2008 yielded less than that.

      Never say never.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      I was thinking that it depends on your time frame.

      Lewis and Clark had a foot or more of snow on the ground at Fort Clatsop for close to 2 weeks straight if my memory of George Miller’s book serves me correctly. And it rarely does! 😉

      That’s low elevation right on the Coast. Just last month George told me that he estimated low temps were probably in the single digits (at least at night) in the Portland area during that time frame. Based on the observations L&C took. Almost certainly there was as much snow on the ground in Portland as well.

      But expecting a return to the 1800’s is a bit much I think. Unless we experience another Maunder Minimum; then all bets are off.

    • W7ENK says:

      Another Maunder Minimum, indeed…

      According to the latest projections for solar activity, this is exactly the scenario we may be headed into.

    • vinnybob says:

      I remember reading an article in the Oregonian in the early 70’s stating that Portland averaged 12 or 13 inches of snow per year. Not anymore.

  5. Down to 36 up here and dropping steadily.

  6. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    Could see very low snow levels Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, will have to watch closely. Could be a marginal event for the west hills and areas above.

  7. robwaltemate says:

    I have been looking at my weather data from 2004 to 2011. Here is what I found using Quattro Pro spread sheet looking for a trend in the data, or the slop of a line of temps vrs year.

    I took the measured mean temps for each month and calculated the slope of the linear regression line though data points in year and temp. I used that slope to plot a line though the mean temps to make sure it wasn’t too far off and added a constant to adjust the line hight above x axis (year).

    For a line y =mx +c. Here y is the average measured temp of the particular month, m is the calculated slope, x is the year, and c is the calculated constant that I got from the fallowing:

    c= monthly average temp – (year)(calculated slope)

    which is just the average measured temp of the month in question less the average calculated value from the equation y=mx where y is the temp, m is the calculated slop, and x is the year.

    A positive slope means that as time goes on, the temp increases. A negative slope means that as time goes on the temp decreases.

    Here is what I found for slopes in degree per year
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
    0.23 0.21 0.64 0.69 0.33 0.22
    Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    1.13 0.64 0.06 0.11 -1.16 -0.58

    The average of the above is 0.21 degrees per year.

    Now this is a very small data set! Also I moved the temperature probe once about 5 years ago, and last year a house was built to the North of the probe (about 20 ft). Not sure how these things would effect temp readings when it is cold out or sunny out.

    The 0.21 degrees per year is much smaller than my standard deviation of 1.81 for the measured mean temps, so the 0.21 is way too small when you compair it with the deviation of the temps.

    My conclustion is that my data set is too small to say anything about long term temps. Until I can get the standard deviation down in size, the probability of this being wrong is great. Better error analysis is needed on the data.

  8. Can’t rule out some wet snow up here Tuesday evening. We’ll see how much precip we end up getting.

  9. Winters not over yet.
    NAM 12z brings accumulating snow down to this location Tuesday night. Hopefully trending colder with the incoming system. I’m not ready for the spring thing (ie, the usual march Thru June parade of upper level lows that descend and pinwheel over Seattle, producing the usual cold showery weather typical of our springs of late)

  10. […] Heaviest Rainfall: 0.50″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft) Reply […]

  11. bgb41 says:

    2/11/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at DW6842 Gold Beac( 449 ft)
    Low: 46 at DW9393 Bay City(84 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 17 at ALLISON (5320 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    CW5474 Grants Pa (59/27 ) (915 ft )
    MERLIN SEED ORCH (59/27) (1064 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.50″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)

  12. runrain says:

    Since things are slow: the Grimm episode last night on NBC (filmed in Portland) had a couple of monsters that resembled beavers. And wouldn’t you know it, they were Oregon State University Beaver fans! One had an Oregon State sweatshirt on and there was an OSU Beavers poster in the background. Methinks an Oregon Duck alum was somehow involved in the story plot!

    Great shots of Portland in the show, taking advantage of our dreary wet weather ala the Twilight movies. And I understand Leverage on TNT is going to be using Portland as its base city for next year. They have always shot here, but we were supposed to be Boston.

  13. IceCold says:

    Mark, since it is slow could you explain why we only get strong east winds in the winter (and sometimes late summer)? How come do we not see east winds throughout the year?

  14. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    Gradients went westerly in the Gorge for the first time in well over a week about 1-2am this morning.

  15. A rather pleasant morning out there with some sunbreaks. Looks like it will be dry for most of the weekend. That’s a positive.

    I’m headed to Alaska on March 11th, I’m hoping for clear weather up there to photograph the northern lights!

  16. bgb41 says:

    2/10/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 47 at DW9392 Bay City(84 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at GREENPOINT(3200 ft) & WOLF CREEK(5700 ft) & ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 25 at Rome (4049 ft ) & BALTZOR RANCH NE (4620 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Rome (59/22) (4049 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.31″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)
    1.27″ at SEVEN MILE CREEK(438ft)
    1.22″ at HORSE CREEK(3402ft)

  17. ashley watson says:

    man with climate change and everything the east coast and europe the last couple of years have got pounded with record cold and snow with the exception of the east coast this year but we just keep getting messed over and that is not being negative, it’s the truth. Our record cool springs and summers don’t give us here in the portland area real winter weather. i certainly beleive in climate change but it certainly has not been in our favor if you like record cold and snow in the months it really counts like dec and january. with the exception of the winter of 2003-2004 (for 2 weeks) and 2008-2009 (for 2 weeks) our winter weather the past 12 years has really stunk.not being pesimistic or negative as some of you would say just being realistic. Sure anything could happen from here on out but i sure aint stickin my neck out and saying were all going to be pleasantly suprised. I think more of the same crap fest.

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    Mark this is just plain old bologna. Winter is over with. Has been for awhile. These models have been wrong all winter. Promising us colder weather and snow. If the models in la la land would have been right only half the time with half as much snow as predicted we still would have gotten dumped on. But we didn’t did we. No reason to think the models are right now. Yes we will probably get some cool showery weather in the days and weeks ahead. That is usually how it goes until June around here. Of course there will also be some nice days as well. Probably a fair amount more than the last two springs. But I just don’t see any chance of snow down to less than about 2,500 feet or so anytime soon. Yes we all would like to see a nice arctic outbreak and snowstorm before it gets to be too late. Myself included. It’s just that I refuse to engage in wishcasting.You are the best meteorologist in Portland bar none. And maybe you just put the ECMWF out as gristle for us weather geeks to chew on. But surely you do realize that this forecast will probably change numerous times over the next week or so, and that at best we will see a little freshening up of the Cascade snowpack. Now everybody can jump all over me for posting this, but isn’t this the place where we can openly and rationally express our opinions on the weather.

    • the -6c 850 temps with moisture on Tuesday should bring snow levels below 2500’… just saying…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! I’ll jump over you.As per your own statement, the models have lost their grip. Anything is on the table at this stage of the game.

      Just joking as usual.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      WeatherDan,

      Models don’t show any arctic outbreak or good setup for snow and I sure didn’t say that in this posting. All I said was with troughing along the west coast we get cooler and wetter than average weather as we head into the long range period.

      I’m probably going to uncover my faucets and turn the water back on down near my chicken coop. If we happen to get a brief cold shot in two weeks I’ll just let it drip.

      If there is moisture Monday night and Tuesday snow will go lower than 2,000′. Otherwise, no, nothing that cold-looking in the next 10 days.

    • o.c.paul says:

      “Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be. The future’s not ours to see. Que sera, sera.” Boy, Doris Day sure could read weather models.

  19. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Uh oh. Don’t you hate it when the models disagree!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    825 am PST Friday Feb 10 2012

    Extended models tend to agree on at least the early half of the long term forecast. A shortwave off the coast sun evening will dive south of the forecast area Sun night and into Monday…bringing likely showers and lowering snow levels Monday. Showers will likely fall as snow in the Cascades and in parts of the Coast Range and Cascade foothills. However…advisory level snows are not expected at this time. A weak ridge builds in for Tuesday providing a brief break in precipitation. Models do disagree on the strength of the next system expected to move through the area late Wednesday into Thursday…then continue
    to disagree on the outcome to end the week.

  20. Last night at CP. I had a gust to 26 mph from the SSW this morning at 3:40.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off

    Again, the wind direction was constantly changing direction last night so the temp was up and down.

  21. […] Heaviest Rainfall: 0.47″ at BEND WATERSHED(5330ft) 0.47″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft) Reply […]

  22. bgb41 says:

    2/09/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at ASHLAND(1885 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft)
    Low: 53 at DW9393 Bay City(84 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 25 at KB7DZR Joseph (3984 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    KLAMATH BASIN NW (63/29 ) (4200 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.47″ at BEND WATERSHED(5330ft)
    0.47″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

  23. Christian says:

    Do you think we will see any more snow this winter, what is the percentage do you think, and could it be enough to finally sled or make a snowman?

  24. Crown Point gusting to 72 mph recently. That is the strongest in the last few days. That shows that the wind is finally a gap wind only as the gradients are weaker than they were the other day.

    I just had a 15-20 minute period where the wind went from WSW-ENE. Now it’s back to the WSW.

    Strange.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I see Troutdale is back up above 40 again. I’m so glad I don’t live in that anymore!

    • stormblown says:

      I thought u lived in Corbett Mark. Isnt it windier there.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      12z MM5 Forecast time-heights for Troutdale have the East Wind finally winding down this evening. It has been a while for sure. The easterly flow is very shallow this morning also.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I live about 2 miles SE of Crown Point, just far enough south to be out of the wind. I can hear it roar in the distance to the north and west, but it’s usually pretty light here.

  25. W7ENK says:

    Some parts of Southern Europe/Asia and Northern Africa that haven’t seen snowfall in nearly 30 years, latitudinally on par with Central Mexico and Cuba.

    Meanwhile, we here at the 45N parallel along the West Coast of North America have waited nearly three years for winter to arrive…

    http://abcnews.go.com/m/slideshow?id=15517143

  26. PNWweather says:

    Great post Mark

    I am surely not looking for a shutout pitched at us here as we move into the spring training period, but with that said I know our snow chances will be deminishing in the lowlands of Puget Sound and on the floors of the Willamette Valley.

    I pretty much give up on the idea of snow once March is done. I know there are others out there who think winter is completely over with which is not always the smart play but sometimes is. I have seen temperatures in the past soar to 67 degrees in February around here and at the same time I have seen as much as 11 inches of snow fall here in my area in Southeast Tacoma.

    The other thing I should note here is I really don’t see all of winter over with until all the snow has melted at Paradise on Mount Rainier. Most of the time that is mid July and sometimes as it seems anyway it does not quit raining in the Seattle and Portland area until July 4th. Some say that is a myth but one has to just look back at last Spring and early Summer to know that has some reality in it.

  27. So that means we could still see low temps in the 20s and highs in the 30s??? And snow is possible too???:))

  28. bgb41 says:

    And so we begin our 6 months of spring..So annoying!

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Now that it looks like transition season will be mostly chilly, I wonder what the chances for even stronger phenological repression this spring? Last year the East Gorge was warm in late January and early February, so much so that we started to get some serious pre-vernal creep in the gardens, with a few daffodils blooming in late February here! But then, of course, we swung completely the other direction…

      This year we don’t have the same kind of very-early-season boost, and there’s been very little increase in the green on hills thus far. Daffodil stalks are only about 1-2 inches tall outside, rather than 6 inches or whatever it was at this time last year.

  29. Longview - 400 ft says:

    I was hoping to hear different for the last week of February or the first week of March.
    Darn.

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      I told the kids in my classroom we would see some white stuff in the air or on the ground the last week of February or the first week of March.
      Might have to eat those words!!!!!!
      LOL

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