A Botched Hedgehog Forecast Today?

I never thought it was possible to botch a “Hedgehog Forecast”, but I think it happened at the Oregon Zoo this morning.  Jabari’s forecast was for a quick end to winter since he didn’t see his shadow.  But it appears he didn’t see his shadow since he was IN the shadow of another person as you can see in the photo???  Notice the kid with the sun blinding his eyes?  This is like measuring the temperature outside from inside your home. 

I’m calling cow-dung on this very important meteorological matter and I don’t buy it, so he saw his shadow as far as I’m concerned. Six more weeks of this bitterly cold and cruel winter to go…

9:30pm Update:  Just got an email from a witness.  The poor little guy WAS HELD IN THE SHADOW OF A PERSON!  He never had a chance to forecast!  Yes, a true meteorological crime occurred at the Oregon Zoo today, I’m going to have to boycott…for at least a week or two.

..Mark Nelsen

48 Responses to A Botched Hedgehog Forecast Today?

  1. Kyle says:

    The big reason why I am leaving for good is because I have anxiety /paranoia issues and am sick and tired of the doom n gloom talk on here about winter being over which isn’t helping me any. :p

    I may come back when we get a good soaker 1.00 inch or more and/ or snow event with 1.00 inch or more on the ground after the snow event exits the region.

    I am enjoying and going to continue to enjoy the sunshine while we have it while the rest of the blog whines and moans like we should jump off a cliff in suicide.

    Go ahead bloggers: Whine away about our crappy !#$!$ winter that was more like an extended fall or El Nino. Where is the Wahbulance when you need one?

    (Goes out and enjoys the sunshine)

  2. Kyle says:

    Before I am gone for good I am wondering if this is a La Nina or El Nino since the ocean patterns scream LA NINA! but the weather patterns are acting like we are in the strongest El Nino ever.

    Does this mean when we have a strong El Nino we will have constant snow events and ice storms with artic air damned up all the way to the CA border with a constant train of SW flow alof?

  3. David B says:

    Downslope easterly winds today here in Seattle. 59 degrees at Boeing Field presently. Probably in the 60s in the foothills (Enumclaw, North Bend, etc.)

  4. muxpux (Castle Rock, WA 175') says:

    also, dunno if anyonme else saw this, and i was driving, and couldnt get a pic, but west of Longview yesterday there was an airplane contrail that pulled a “You-ee”

    a big huge u shaped jet contrail. wierdest thing. havent seen anything on the news about a deverted flight?? u think if that was thwe case it would have just landed at PDX…

    • W7ENK says:

      The military has been conducting flight training over Portland for the last week or so, it was written up in The Oregonian last week.

    • Runrain says:

      Might have been one of those super value airlines. They have to cut costs somewhere, even if it means turning around!

  5. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Some lenticulars today over castle rock

  6. http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    Averages\Extremes for the month of January 2012

    Average temperature = 40.6°F
    Average humidity = 86%
    Average dewpoint = 36.3°F
    Average barometer = 30.095 in.
    Average windspeed = 2.4 mph
    Average gustspeed = 4.2 mph
    Average direction = 188° ( S )
    Rainfall for month = 0.050 in.
    Rainfall for year = 8.581 in. (Most rain ever in January) (Wettest month ever on record)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.050 in on day 26 at time 04:00
    Maximum temperature = 56.1°F on day 03 at time 14:50
    Minimum temperature = 26.8°F on day 27 at time 04:36
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 20 at time 23:17
    Minimum humidity = 30% on day 11 at time 14:23
    Maximum dewpoint = 52.5°F on day 24 at time 19:43
    Minimum dewpoint = 11.0°F on day 11 at time 17:52
    Maximum pressure = 30.59 in. on day 27 at time 06:39
    Minimum pressure = 29.12 in. on day 20 at time 23:00
    Maximum windspeed = 19.6 mph from 203°(SSW) on day 18 at time 15:39
    Maximum gust speed = 32.2 mph from 203°(SSW) on day 18 at time 15:39
    Maximum heat index = 56.1°F on day 03 at time 14:50

    Avg daily max temp :47.2°F
    Avg daily min temp :34.6°F (Lowest avg daily min temp for January on record)
    Total windrun = 1727.4miles
    Frost days= 10 (Most frost days for January on record)

    Record low wind chill temperature = 20.8 on day 12 at time 04:02
    Record daily rain = 2.26” on day 19
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.41” on day 18 at time 04:51
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 51.6 on day 03
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 30.3 on day 28
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 34.3 on day 16
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 51.1 on day 25

    Daily rain totals
    00.24 in. on day 4
    00.08 in. on day 5
    00.13 in. on day 6
    00.01 in. on day 8
    00.38 in. on day 9
    00.03 in. on day 10
    00.16 in. on day 14
    00.12 in. on day 15 (.5” of snow)
    00.06 in. on day 16 (trace of snow)
    00.55 in. on day 17 (.5” of snow)
    01.57 in. on day 18 (2.0” of snow)
    02.26 in. on day 19
    00.65 in. on day 20
    00.09 in. on day 21
    00.40 in. on day 22
    00.01 in. on day 23
    01.02 in. on day 24
    00.04 in. on day 25
    00.10 in. on day 26
    00.63 in. on day 29

    *Records since October 2008*

  7. W7ENK says:

    Oh noez!!!

    Wind damage is so extensive at Mill Ends Park (the world’s smallest), every single tree has been blown down!! 😥

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    I don’t see any chance of cold weather out through the 20th. The climatological chances of us having a high of less than 40 after the 20th are probably less than 5%. So here goes-GERNNIMOOOOOO!!!!!. Boy it sure feels great down here at the bottom of the cliff. For those who jump early there is steak and ribs to eat. But if you wait a few more weeks insisting on that unseasonable cold blast, all you get to eat is crow. Spring training in MLB camps starts in two weeks. Daylight Savings time starts 5 weeks from Sunday. WINTER IS OVER.

    • o.c.paul says:

      I’m already into next fall. The last two weeks of November look pretty gooood.

    • Anton C says:

      The only thing more depressing than having to leave behind another uneventful winter is the thought of having to endure countless “jumping off the cliff” posts on this blog. Did this winter really even warrant anyone “climbing the cliff”? I think I’d rather eat crow than that overcooked, stale beef being served inside that overused, stale, but-ever-popular cliff-jumping metaphor.

  9. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Safe to say the weather is slow right now… 🙂

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Monday-Tuesday could be the time to watch.
    Better get the best Body-Bracers out for this event. Could be crazy windy!

    As per Mark, “possibly just as strong or stronger wind later Monday-Tuesday. A splitting system approaching from the SW is often a good setup to really crank up the east wind…we’ll see.”

    As per,
    National Weather Service Portland or
    850 am PST Friday Feb 3 2012

    The GFS and European model (ecmwf) increase the
    offshore gradient as a much deeper low in the eastern Pacific approaches the coast. This coupled with a colder air mass dropping south out of Canada into the northern rockies will allow the offshore gradient to become even stronger.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      I was looking at this in the models a day or two ago and thought this looked good. Will make sure I’ve got extra batteries and an extra impeller for the wind guage in the car next week.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      May head out there myself if this sets up right, HIOPHIL.

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:



    03 Feb 7:27 am PST E 35G76

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    Well I saw my shadow yesterdat, and the additional six…err excuse me, 16 weeks of winter will start around March 1st. Enjoy spring….Bwa ha ha ha…!

  13. 35 here and calm. Had a peak wind of 23 mph last night around midnight. My mom text and said it was 48 there and still windy with a peak wind of 32 mph.

  14. Garron Beaverton says:

    Sorry, I don’t trust those furry little vermits! Where’s Bill Murray when you need him? I always wondered where the CPC got their long range 50 day forecasts from. I think it’s time to bring back, was it Bob the weather cat? He had a 5-day forecast you could stick a fork in, it was as good as a done deal.

  15. bgb41 says:

    2/2/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:66 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 44 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)

    High:24 at ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: -1 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    ALLISON (50/5 ) (5320 ft )
    CRANE PRAIRIE (44/-1) (5500 ft)

  16. Bob Gilmore says:

    Hi, Mark. That’s what I thought. This morning I wrote a poem about today.

    I knocked on Mister Hedgehog’s door
    The sign said Philip Hedgehog’s Store
    He opened up his door, and said
    Please let me go back to my bed
    I’m not a weatherman, you know
    I’m just a hedgehog, so please go!

  17. Karl Bonner says:

    So Mark was getting excited about the Columbia Basin fogging up and The Dalles being only 44 or 45 for a high tomorrow. Well I’ve noticed that temps in the entire Columbia Basin are still pretty mild. As of 11:20pm, mostly low to mid 30s for places located below about 1000-1500′. I could be wrong, but my instincts tell me you ought to have upper 20s by this time of night in some of the low spots if you’re getting the strong radiational cooling and air pooling.

    All in all, as of just before midnight there’s very little sign of any of this cool air that’s supposed to be kicking in. While I think tomorrow probably will be a shade cooler than today, both morning and afternoon, I suspect it could still get up close to 50. Maybe tomorrow night the inversional cool pool effects will finally kick in for real…

  18. W7ENK says:

    😥 FOUL! 😥

  19. I’ve never seen my temp bounce like this!

    8:15: 39.6
    8:45: 46.9
    9:00: 45.2
    9:05: 43.9
    9:08: 42.2

  20. snodaze says:

    Mark… I would ban you from your own blog if I could…

    Just sayin…

    Signed, ‘snodaze’

  21. stormblown says:

    he he he….

  22. k5mitch says:

    “there’s snow in the mountain” RIP 42nd St. Eddie.

  23. January 2012 in Battle Ground
    Highest High: 58.2, 4th
    Lowest Low: 21.7, 12th
    Highest Wind: S 27, 2nd
    Most Precip: 1.19″, 19th
    Total Snow: 7.25″

    Total Precip: 6.86″

    Avg High: 47.2
    Avg Low: 32.3
    Mean: 39.8

  24. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Based on current forecast, looks like it hexed the “sunny” last 1/2 of Winter… its gonna stay dry here as well.. Winter of 2008 was very dry and we may as well have a repeat.

  25. Bring on the 10 feet of mountain snow for St. Patrick’s day, bring on the late winter Arctic Outbreak when we barely hit 25 degrees in Portland….

    • o.c.paul says:

      Couldn’t have said it better. I was in Hood River today. Plenty of mounds of snow still in all the parking lots. Lots of ice damage visible everywhere. Now that, is winter weather.

  26. Karl Bonner says:

    But the next 10 days will feel like early spring…does that mean when the weather turns mid-month, that we have six weeks of cold after that? In other words, winter continues through almost ALL of March?!?

    I sure hope THAT isn’t what the current mix of shadows and springlike temps mean.

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