Winter Denial & Drier February

Eric from Troutdale sent me this pic today…describes the weather geek’s feelings around here this winter so far.

You can tell it’s from the Midwest though; check out the last line.  That doesn’t apply here since we don’t get much in the way of Spring thunder, hail, and tornadoes.

Speaking of the rest of winter, does it seem like we’ve had more dry Februarys than wet ones?  It’s true.  Only 1 out of the past 11 Februarys have been wetter than normal here in the lowlands of western Oregon (Climate Division #2).

Technically, the new 30 year average monthly rainfall stats for PDX (1981-2010) show that March is now slightly wetter than February.  3.66″ in February and 3.68″ for March.  So now they are basically about the same.  At least it’s a slightly warmer rain in March???

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to Winter Denial & Drier February

  1. CorbettTez says:

    Better check the generator and make sure I have extra fuel for the inevitable power failure out here in Corbett!! No doubt I’ll end up listening to the SB on a portable radio this year!! Forget next Thu/Fri to be sick of the winds….it just started and we’re already sick of it!!!! Bring on Spring!!!!! 🙂

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS! That is unless you are under the influence of the East winds. May need other precautions for that.
    02 Feb 4:07 pm PST E 29G60

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=pqr&iname=Active_Screen1L&size=1&force=no

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    This summer should be a little warmer and drier than the last two summers. Call it slightly warmer and drier than normal. Not a really hot summer. But a pleasant one.

  4. vinnybob says:

    Today in Portland the temperature plunged to -3 in 1950, their all time record.

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Few thoughts…not much weather to talk about in the next 10 days or so…but pleasant…not too dreary…should be able to break out of fog on most days.

    Not much glacier building in the next 10-15 days. Should be nice magic mile skiing though.

    This could be another one of those years we get a west side lowland snow event in late Feb or March….to start another one of the long cool wet springs. A late snowman in Eugene is better than none. Certainly we have struck out down here in terms of notable winter weather thus far, except for the exceptional rains a couple weeks ago.

    Only early ripening tomatoes should be planted…probably no earlier than late May…soil temps likely to be cool.

    Best guess is that this summer, again influenced by neg PDO, will have tendency for cool weather on the coast…with more marine influence than usual. There may be a difference from last summer…though. Last year we had the persistent megaheat ridge over southern plains…which was conducive to trough over the NW USA. This time around…I think we will see more of the great basin ridge…probably we will have quite a few more days in the 80s..a few more 90s. Just guessing. How many thunderstorms we get will depend on whether or not we get those cutoff lows off of CA. Last year, you could commit a million sins in PDX and still not get struck by lightning. This year…maybe you will have to commit about 500,000.

  6. 46/32 today. 0.05″ of rain since 6am.

  7. I actually ended up with above average temps for January at my location.

    Average Max: 45.2
    Average Min: 32.2
    Mean Temp: 38.7 (+1.2)
    Max: 59.5 (4th)
    Min: 23.7 (27th)
    Precip: 19.23″ (+8.60″)
    Max 24hr Precip: 5.39″ (18th)
    Days with Precip: 21
    Days with over 1″ of precip: 6
    Snowfall: 32.3″
    Days with measurable snowfall: 6
    Days with 1″+ snowcover: 7
    Sub-Freezing lows: 20

  8. bgb41 says:

    2/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft)
    Low: 48 at CW3485 Port Orfo(400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 10 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    CW8689 Burns (45/20 ) (4219 ft )
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (35/10) (6100 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.69″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  9. Eric H. (300') Troutdale says:

    Confusing? I’m Eric from Troutdale. 🙂

  10. Karl Bonner says:

    It’s still in the low 40s in The Dalles at 10pm…unless the high clouds vanish within the next couple hours, we could have a surprise in the form of a milder early morning (lows in the low 30s instead of mid to upper 20s). The skies WILL clear eventually, but a slightly milder start to the day tomorrow might put us in the position to get into the low 50s by early afternoon in The Dalles, thanks to the slightly stronger early February sun being able to flex its muscle. Forecasts on Wunderground are a low of 27 and high of 45; maybe a 32 for low and 50-52 for high, if we stay with the high clouds through 2am? Needless to say, I think any outdoor groundhogs will see intense shadows tomorrow morning for any place not shrouded in fog (read: The Dalles and likely parts of Portland).

    Of course the next week or two will probably feel at least a little bit like spring. A very powerful ridge parked over the West Coast the entire 10-day period, except for a couple possible brief brushes where we get a little bit cloudy and *maybe* a few light showers west of the Cascades. I remain cautiously optimistic that if the dry spell continues through most of the 2nd week of February, that we’re pretty much guaranteed at least two or three days with rather spring-like afternoon temps coupled with intense sunshine, as in at least low 50s in the East Gorge and mid 50s in Portland and the Willamette Valley. It’s definitely POSSIBLE to hit 60 west of the Cascades in the 2nd week with just the right setup, but it isn’t easy. But 55 degrees isn’t difficult at all to pull off in the Valley, provided there isn’t too much fog. And as the dry spell progresses, the supply of moisture decreases while the sun angle gradually increases, and that pushes the trend toward less fog as we get toward midmonth.

    I remain cautiously optimistic that we will get some spring-like afternoon temps, through probably not in the next 3 or 4 days. I think the east wind and Columbia Basin surface high will be a little too strong for that, and I could easily see a 51 or 52 in The Dalles tomorrow be followed by several degrees cooler on Friday and Saturday, as clear skies tomorrow night allow the cool high pressure to settle in. Forecasts are showing a possible “brush” late Monday and Tuesday with a very weak disturbance, but in the ECMWF the ridge very quickly pops back up as a split flow develops to the south.

  11. Sifton says:

    I believe the Feb. of 2001 (pardon if I’m wrong) was the warmest/driest Feb. that I can recall in the last 20 or so years, praying for a repeat & already off to a good start!!!

  12. Maybe next year’s El Nino will balance it all out. Entropy?

    • David B says:

      I thought next winter was forecast to be neutral. That should make winter-lovers happy, since neutral winters statistically have the highest chances of big lowland snow events west of the Cascades.

  13. Pretty much the whole lower 48 got focked this [winter]. Something ain’t right…. Me thinks this will be another onshore summer with plenty o’ stratus, drizzle, while east of the mts all the way to new jack city roasts in dust bowl deux. Count yer blessings

    • pippin says:

      Agreed. Hey at least Alaska and Europe are having quite a winter. If the cold isn’t here its always somewhere else.

  14. vinnybob says:

    One.

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