One Last Wet Storm System

This one comes in late tonight and tomorrow morning…but it won’t be nearly as wet as last week’s deluge.  Check out our RPM rain forecast.   Luckily just an inch or so here in the Valleys tomorrow and Wednesday.  Heavier amounts in the Coast and Cascade Ranges could set off minor river flooding on either of the usual North Coast Range rivers (Wilson & Nehalem).

No signficiant wind coming up with this system other than the usual gusts 50-65 mph on the coastline, much lighter here in the Valleys.

There WILL be another shot of snow in the central/eastern Columbia River Gorge.  Plenty of snow cover to the east, a cold night, then precipitation moves in over the cool air around 8am.  Model soundings say snow is possibly from start to early afternoon.  POSSIBLY a period of freezing rain in the late afternoon; no dramatic warming until late tomorrow night with a return of the west wind.  So I see 3-5″ possible for Cascade Locks to The Dalles from 8am-3pm.

Starting Thursday, it appears we are headed for a big slowdown in the weather again, similar to what we saw for the 7 weeks before mid January.  A few weak systems for very light rain here or there, but that’s it. 

The GFS (a bit unreliable this winter in my view) shows strong ridging off and on over the next 2 weeks.  The ECMWF isn’t quite as much a “blowtorch”, showing occasional systems moving inland and no real strong ridging.  Both say little or no chance for lower elevation snow, no arctic blasts, and no windstorm/flooding events.

Here are the two 850mb ensemble temp charts for the next two weeks from both the GFS:

and the ECMWF, note they both have some sort of chilly troughing (briefly) about 8 days from now, around the 31st.:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

17 Responses to One Last Wet Storm System

  1. MARK !!!!! I have Big thunder boomers an lightning, Here in Hebo !!!! Pounding hard rain with some GOOD wind gust’s

  2. Jake says:

    Spring is upon us. Get used to it. Portland doesn’t have winter.

  3. Karl Bonner says:

    If only we could find a way to postpone the return of a West Coast ridge until the sun is strong enough to make some good use of it. At least after this week we will be into early February, when ridges have the chance of bringing at least somewhat clearer and milder lowland conditions than their December counterparts.

  4. I’m not putting too much into the long range ensembles. It was just last Thursday when they showed a cold bias for the next two weeks.

  5. Kyle says:

    Sorry if I was a bit negative but I am not taking back what I said.

    I really am tired of people moaning about how winter is *over* when it hasn’t even begun and recent trends are pushing our bulk of the precipitation towards Spring.

    Mark had a graph once showing our springs getting wetter the last 5 years which shows to me at least a short-term trend which likely is caused by underwater volcanoes.

    Volcanoes themselves CANNOT physically change the weather but the heat-output if constant enough over a period of time will be enough to create a semi-permenant high pressure since HP after is is molecules moving very fast created by heat.

    If that’s NOT the case: Either way our seasons are still messsed up where right now we are in what mother nature would call Late Octoboer weather with a few passing systems getting stronger each week.

    When we have our artic outbreaks Alaska is usually warmer at the time as the cold air has to go some where when the warm air comes to the cold air.
    And when that cold air goes to the warm air that warm air has to go to some other place else that has the cold air and that cold air has to go to some other place else to some other place else.

    • snodaze says:

      You’re just not getting it Kyle…

      Winter is almost over… If models don’t sync on a cold solution inside 2 weeks…

      You, my friend — will be left out in the cold! — lol..

      Sorry, — I didn’t read the rest of your post outside the first couple of lines.

    • snodaze says:

      I should say however…

      The 2 week sync deal is really about the next 30 days or so…

      So a month.

      But we’ll all know what’s happening 1-2 weeks prior should models lock up on somthing…

      And I use those timeframes loosely!

    • snodaze says:

      Volcanoes themselves CANNOT physically change the weather

      ———-

      Umm… that depends on where and how big the volcanoes are…

      Yes, “one” can impact “global” weather patterns…

      And you better hope Yellowstone doesn’t go off in your lifetime.. or you’re dead.

  6. robwaltemate says:

    I think we have a lot of winter to catch up on. Cold here at 36.8 F and 90 RH. We are not even out of Jan yet, and Feb and Mar are cold I bet.

  7. The City & Fire Dept just started notifying people here to beware. Hoping we can dodge the bullet one more time & praying for the folks in Turner & the Valley that do not need more rain.

    Hopefully it WILL crest @ 11′ & not cause more flooding. Was hoping to go volunteer down the valley if possible Wed.

  8. Runrain says:

    Winter, hopefully is mainly done. I’m setting my sights on a first 70, or even a low 60’s high sooner. Maybe a late winter windstorm thrown in.

    • Kyle says:

      Done? Winter hasn’t even started other then that warm rain event! Where the *beep* have you been? *confused*

      If you are already sick of winter then you are not going to like spring either.

      If my calculations are correct (which I have been keeping track of) we are going to more then make up for the low snowpack comes spring if we are still in this La Nina right we think the warm weather will come.

      Mother Nature will throw the old switcharoo on us and we will have our delayed winter with that HUGE artic shot in March/April.

      I don’t know about anybody else but the seasons the last 5 years have been all F up.
      I can’t wait till 2015 to see if our average rainfall will peak in the spring instead of winter in this new climate trend.

      I know not one or two systems is enough to establish a trend
      but how many storms in the wrong seasons will it take for people to wake up to the fact our climate patterns have shifted?

      Three

      Four

      Five?

      Will it take their gardens being washed away in the spring before they come on here boo hooing about the weather?

    • Jeremy KF7NGT says:

      I still think its too early to call. We have a good 5-6 week window left for honest winter style WX in the lowlands.

  9. Christiana in Forest Grove says:

    Glad that rain won’t bring too much flooding to the Valley. We can always use a break. Rain every other day works well for most of us.

  10. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    Thanks for the update mark. Looks like we get to go back to boring weather hoping for another marginal event a few weeks down the road!

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