11am: Quick Update

Pretty quiet this morning with light rain picking up across the area.  Here in the Portland Metro area we have a mainly uneventful weather weekend on the way (including today):

FLOODING:  All rivers continuing to recede today since we had almost 24 hours with no rain in the central Willamette Valley.   The rain the next 3 days will be light enough that none are forecast will return to flooding. 

 ICE STORM:  The Columbia River Gorge has an Ice Storm Warning.  All of today’s rain will fall as glaze ice east of Cascade Locks.    What a mess developing in the Hood River Valley and in The Dalles too.  I see slightly colder air moved in overnight in that area.  Middle Mtn (in the MIDDLE of the Hood River Valley…hmmm…) went from low 30s last night down into the mid 20s now.  So it’s a good 2,000′ layer of chilly air stuck.  That won’t get dislodged until the wave (related to wind westside) comes through late tonight.  Could see another 1/2″ ice easily.

WIND:  Model are noticeably weaker this morning with the wave coming through tonight.  Still windy along the Coast, gusts up around 70 mph for a brief period 11pm-3am there.  But nothing too unusual.  Here in the Valley, only the MM5-NAM is holding onto a strong southerly gradient (18mb OLM-EUG).  The WRF-GFS and our RPM have 13-16mb gradient OLM-EUG.  That would be more of a “wind advisory” event with gusts around 40 mph.  Once again, nothing unusual there.  So as of now, I don’t see a windstorm overnight.  Hopefully the 00z model runs are weak as well.

And now…I…am… “checking out” of any weather activities until I get to work around 2pm…not even going to think WEATHER for the first time in a week…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


21 Responses to 11am: Quick Update

  1. Hal in Aims says:

    temp here has plummeted from 44.2 to 37.3 in an hour and a half….still dropping..

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Within one block of my house by Bush park in Salem yesterday the streets were flooded. The last time that happened was in 1996. The Willamette river in Salem is expected to have it’s highest crest since 1996.And the 4th highest since 1943. A sunny day would be nice.

    • Roman~Snow-Zone-Monmouth, Elv. 223' says:

      Yeah from the edge of town in Independence the river looks very ominous. It’s amazing how full she is, it’s quite scary! Thankfully we are not going to have very heavy rain this weekend.. If we were I would say Independence would be toast.

    • We took a drive out north of our place to the Luckiamute and there are plenty of farms that are now isolated. The “lake” has reformed for the first time since 96. I’m heading down to a jobsite we have going on the Willamette just north of Albany off Spring Hill rd. The river here is supposed to crest about 6′ below the 96 levels. I’ll take a pic of the place and post it later.

  3. Kyle in Stevenson, WA says:

    It’s 30 degrees and zr. So far the deck and my Exploder is iced up. the roads are ok for now….. but if this keeps up the roads won’t last for long…

  4. For sure Mark….give your brain a rest….but not for more than several hours……until Spring 🙂

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Fri 11:00

    Agree on just a bit windy tonight for Willamette Valley…no windstorm.

    Weekend looks good for skiing in OR Cascades….Saturday the cooler…windier/snowier of the days…Sunday should be less breezy but renewed snow moving in later during the day…

    QPF: Looks like Willamette Valley down to about 3-5 inches liquid in the next 10 days which is manageable.

    Long Range: Models a bit divergent in solutions toward day ten….HPC leaning toward Euro ensemble and operational/deterministic output….but still confidence is low. It appears there is trend toward colder weather around day 10…whether there is arctic air involved…will have to wait and see. It undoubtedly is cold in Canada and AK. Fairbanks may end up close to having the coldest January ever…their average temp has been about -26F so far this month (-31F Jan 1971 is coldest). .

  6. homer55 says:

    I strongly doubt that Mark can go three hours without even thinking about the weather. But that’s OK…his secret is safe with all of us 🙂

    • Jory (Sandy) says:

      He probably dreams Technicolor dreams of Highs and Lows battling it out, and him in the middle. Either that or some scenario like the movie ‘Day After Tomorrow’ where is the good guy. 🙂

    • Marcus, loves snow! in La Center says:

      Thanx Brian

  7. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Surprised to see Crown point below freezing. That cold air is coming pretty far West. Now, lets just hope the Crown Point anemometer survives this. The rest of the equipment appears to be working. But I am wondering about the temp though. Once encased in ice, it will just give the temp of the ice on it.

    • David B says:

      No reason to think the anemometer won’t survive. It’s merely getting encased in ice and not moving. Nothing particularly harmful in that — it’ll be back to its old self once it melts out.

      Temperature sensors typically are in small louvered enclosures. Unless the ice builds up to a stage where the louvers get entombed, air should be able to get in from outside, though it may get affected some by having to pass near that ice.

  8. umpire says:

    Even with lighter winds/gusts, I would think the ground saturation plus a 35-40 mph gust could result in more trees/branches down. Glad to see the precip amounts should be comparatively lighter this weekend, however!

  9. Big Nel says:

    Lost the anemometer at Crown Point…….freezing or should I say frozen.

    • Jory (Sandy) says:

      Good catch! Makes me wonder if Mark can go to work today, if he is experiencing freezing rain.

  10. 1st? Thanks for the update, Mark. Enjoy your non-weather time….you’ve earned it!

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