Quick 9:30pm Update

Very little time (that little TV thing gets in the way of a good blogging experience).

Lots of snow falling in a few places I didn’t expect so much, and it’s not falling where I did.  That’s okay I haven’t freaked out…yet.

Wayne Garcia just came in to let me know something along the lines of  “you know it’s okay to change course instead of going down with the ship…”  Thats the quality encouragment I get from my coworkers.

Lots of snow falling and sticking in Clark County and most of the metro area north of Oregon City to Wilsonville, but not much…yet (slightly warmer) over in Washington County.

South wind is gone, but no east wind yet.  That was expected.

At 1,800′ it’s 32 degrees!  Folks, it doesn’t get any more more “marginal” than this!  In a well-mixed atmosphere it would be about 40 or so down here in the lowlands, but the heavier precipitation rates are allowing the snowflakes to survive much lower.

I mentioned I’m not freaking out for two reasons:  The WRF-GFS speeded up the timing of slightly warmer air moving in overhead, to right after 1am (but no south wind at that time at the surface).  Just enough to possibly change flakes back to mainly rain or a mix.  The other reason is that our RPM continues to show very gradual warming (up above, not at the surface again) through the night too.  Hmmm, combine that with the surprisingly mild tower temps and we could still escape without more than just trace to a few inches.

OR, I’m going down with the ship and there will be 10 inches of snow on the ground in Portland by 4am.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

364 Responses to Quick 9:30pm Update

  1. Jane - Forest Grove says:

    I think we’re up to 34 degrees now. I’m sure it’s on the way now. What the real story for wind in this area?

  2. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    18 inches of snow on the ground at 1200 feet east of Hockinson. They were definitely not expecting to receive that much.

  3. Garron Beaverton says:

    Already have 1.23″ of mostly rain since midnight after a low of 32 up to 43. Had a gust to 24 so far, winds steady at 15 mph due South.

  4. chris s says:

    So is anyone else concerned about flooding in the next 2 weeks with the amount of rain we are gonna get on top of the wet snow that will all be melting below 3000ft or so? Seems that should be the focus going forward.

    • chiefWright (Marquam) says:

      NWS has posted short-term statements, and has made some mid-term mutterings. It may be an issue on some streams with watersheds in the significant snow areas with limited flood control (Nehalem? Sandy?), but I doubt it. We’re way behind on the water year & snow pack, in spite of the last week.

    • robwaltemate says:

      Here is a link I use to look at the different streams.

      http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

  5. robwaltemate says:

    Did that Low pressure come in just North of the Long Beach Peninsula instead of Astoria?

    Rain here near Long Beach WA, but not as much wind, but was increasing at Cape Disappointment at 9am.

  6. W7ENK says:

    From a co-worker in Scappoosia…

    All this fell last night. Needless to say, she won’t be in the office today!

    • David B says:

      Scappoose really does seem to be in a little cold air pool and get snow during many times when surrounding areas get rain. I’ve noticed this many times before.

      Snow has picked up the pace a little in West Seattle since daybreak. I’d estimate 3 to 4 inches by now. North wind is sculpting it into cornices on the edge of the neighbor’s roof.

      Forecast to be mostly done around lunchtime, so we may pick up another inch or two if we’re lucky. Most of the moisture went to our south (your north): Chehalis had 15 inches on the ground as of this morning!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Digging out this AM. Lotsa popping and banging noises coming outa the woods. The trees aren’t having any fun.

  7. Garron Beaverton says:

    Nice spike in the tower temps, looks like their racing!!!!!!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/tower_temps/tower_temps.php?&units=F

  8. Garron Beaverton says:

    Well it was fun, for about 1/2 hour last night. MIght have had 1/2″ in Aloha before the change over just after midnight. Now,,,,enjoying heat while the power is still on, suspect alot more power outages in the next couple of days…

  9. Brucie555 says:

    Hate to say it – but Mark kinda missed the warmup this morning. He said on the air last night it would be a “dramatic warmup” and we could be into the middle to upper 40’s by 7am. But here it is past 9am, most North Valley location have little or NO wind and are still in the mid to upper 30’s. Not too “dramatic” so far.

    • Ron says:

      I’d say pretty dramatic warm up in some areas in fact. I went from 36f to 42f from 5am to 8:30am. Thats substantial. All about location. with about 20 micro climates around town, no meterorologist could possibly forecast every area. He did a pretty darn good job. S wind has increased over the last hour from 0 to 10mph. I’m off of Springwater Rd. 5 miles from Carver.

  10. Currently 44.7° and light rain.

  11. …temp up to 32.7, still some chunks in the rain…

  12. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    11 in. snow. Light rain and 34 degs.

  13. n3eg says:

    5.25″ here in Longview this morning. Wind picked up about 8:00am here and the trees dumped snow on me as I was trying to brush off the sat TV dish, but the anemometer was still slushy and didn’t register it.

  14. Blowing on the coast and should be soon in the mid/south Willamette Valley….

    Temp here fluctuating between 35 and 36 due to some east wind…

  15. …getting an easterly air drift, and flakes mixing in…what a borderline i’m sitting at right now…

  16. W7ENK says:

    Hmmm… Just had a power bump in “The Core”.
    That can’t be good! o_O

  17. deanna salmon creek says:

    we got about 6 inches in salmon creek on the border of battle ground, still had over 4 inches of slush when i left for work this morning. it was a down pour of rain and snow mix

  18. Ron says:

    What is the meso link to get wind speeds of Oregon locations that graph it out? Can’t seem to mine it out off of NOAA. Thanks.

  19. Kyle says:

    Mark the Sage Of Weather makes another go at the forecast and wins the game!

    Let’s give a round of applause for our favorite TV weather man!

    • Brad says:

      Well, let’s say that he recovered his own fumble….it wasn’t the perfect call.

    • Kyle says:

      Close enough. Hard to believe there was so much hype for a bunch of snow that turned out to be BS unless there is a transition back to snow after these south winds come thru and the tower temps drop again.

    • Garron Beaverton says:

      It’s not going to drop or snow again, we’re done.

  20. Max in Fairview says:

    Lots of reports of fallen trees and debris along the coastal areas. In fact, Highway 18 is shut down because of this.

    ORE18
    MP 1 – 21
    ORE18, Otis

    Closure
    Crash/Hazard

    Lanes Affected: (Westbound) 2 Lanes (Eastbound) 2 Lanes
    Comments: Hazardous tree or vegetation, use an alternate route. Highway closed for downed trees.

  21. timber sensor went blank, I would be willing to bet they lost power out there, does Vernonia have power?

  22. Kyle says:

    40F here in Silverton and likely warmer in Salem.

    No snow here whatsoever unless there is a transition after this system scoots.

  23. muxpux (Castle Rock, WA 175') says:

    got 8″ new here. 12″ total on the ground. it is an impressive morning. snow stopped now getting an ice pellet/rain mix, very light though. right now its just wind knocking snow off the trees.

    • Wendy-Silver Lake says:

      We got 12 new and had about 4 inches left from the last couple of days, so right around 16 inches. On my way out to try to get some snow off the greenhouse before it collapses.

    • Kyle says:

      😮

  24. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Daybreak conditions. Very close to transitioning back over, ZR keeps falling momentarily. 34.3

  25. David B says:

    It’s all white out and still coming down here in West Seattle, but only at a “snizzle” pace. Really looks like the moisture is all going south of us.

    Been coming down at this rate since about 2:30 this morning if the reports from Boeing Field are accurate. I woke to pee at 3:30 and the snizzle was underway then. Only a couple inches on the ground despite having been falling for 5.5 hours now, to give you an idea of how slow it’s falling.

    Temp is 28 with a north wind that has been picking up since the snow began, so it’s sticking to everything. Probably won’t get much warmer than that today (and the temp may even fall as the day goes on), considering how cold it is in the Fraser Valley where that wind is coming from.

    Forecast to all be slush by noon tomorrow as the wind shifts to onshore.

  26. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Whoeee- the gorge is getting well and truly hammered:
    http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/Cam.asp?curRegion=2&camera=1860&camera=1863

  27. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    I’m running out of moisture up this way. On the radar it looks like it’s sliding south and I’ve only got about half an hours worth left. Maybe that means I won’t switch over to rain. The wind is starting to knock some snow off the trees.

  28. Still snowing in Forest Grove, temp 32°F with 11 inches on ground, elevation 200 feet

    Weather station realtime weather (updates 1 – 3 sec)
    http://johnrinier.com/RealTimeWeather.html

    Animated web cam (updates every 5 min)

    • update, looks to be rain now and some wind, but my anenometer is covered in with snow, temp still 32°F

    • Ron says:

      Interesting how the cold air dams up a little on the lee side of the coast range there. 35f and raining moderately at 320ft between Oregon City and Estacada. I live on Clear Creek and it has risen over two feet in the last 4 hours. Just some slush left from the total of 2″. I went to Pacific U and played baseball there in the late 60’s and early 70’s. I remember a few times when FG would get hammered with snow and other locations closer to the valley got nothing or very little. Clearly some flooding coming up.

  29. Thomas Form St.Helens says:

    Now up to 13″ in St.Helens finally found a place to messure with out trees!

  30. geoff says:

    we probably got 3 inches in e. clark county but now it’s all rain. 32 degrees

  31. jeffw says:

    SW Portland/Garden Home, 250 ft. Had an inch or two, changed over to rain around 1 a.m. No accumulation left this morning.

  32. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Yikes, look at PGE’s outage map right now. What’s it going to be like in 8 hours???
    http://www.portlandgeneral.com/safety_outages/outages/outage_updates/outage_map.aspx

  33. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Winds really starting to crank up down here in the central Willamette Valley. Hope to hear an analysis from Paul soon and what he is experiencing wind wise.

  34. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    8 in. snow. Now, to watch it melt away…darn

  35. Tanya in Scappoose says:

    I have nine inches of snow on the ground and it is still falling like crazy out here in Scappoose. I’m at the base of the hills, my elevation is only like 40 feet or so. I declare a snow day.

  36. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Bare ground and steady rain. 1.24″ precip last 24 hrs. Snow/Slush, followed by heavy rain with a nice dose of wind on the way. Good luck, PGE!

  37. Tower Temps are really dropping quickly, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/tower_temps/tower_temps.php?&units=F

    Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll see some snow again before the south wind arrives.

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