Just took a quick glance at all the 00z models…wow…a lot of action the next 7 days!
-The 00z NAM continues to be by far the coldest solution for Tuesday, the time when more moisture starts to move in for steadier precipitation. Not sure what to think of that since it’s the only model showing such a cold airmass, cold enough for significant sticking snow in the lowest elevations. For now I’m ignoring it since it’s out on it’s own. Unfortunately the NAM only goes out to 84 hours, so we don’t know what it shows Wednesday.
-The GFS has almost exactly the same solution Monday-Wednesday that it’s shown for a couple days. Quick warmup Tuesday, then a nice surge of very mild air Wednesday for high snow levels.
-The new 00z ECMWF is slightly cooler (slightly closer to the NAM) Tuesday morning, keeping us around a -7 at 850mb. Then it warms up. It brings the surface low up to about Astoria on Wednesday morning, slightly farther south (again a nod to the NAM) than 24 hours ago.
-The 00z GEM (Canadian) is similar to the GFS.
-All 3 of those models have several deep low pressure centers tracking across the Pacific Northwest Wednesday-Saturday. All 3 of the 00z runs have an especially deep center passing through Washington sometime between midday Friday and midday Saturday. We could get a real windstorm out of this…I’ll keep an eye on it.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen