The snow rumors are just getting going today, and they should be going crazy the next 2-3 days. A bit amusing since we have 3-4 days of beautiful sunshine ahead! I covered all that in the previous post, so let’s move on.
For those just checking in wanting the basics here you are:
- Our best chance of sticking snow to the lowest elevations (in the cities) this winter so far arrives Sunday and continues through Tuesday, possibly a bit longer.
- The possibility of an inch of snow in the city of Portland has increased a bit since last night…I give it a 50/50 at this time.
- Those of you in the hills (1,000’+) should get at least some snow, possibly quite a bit (6″+) during this period. First chance is probably Sunday morning…we’ll fine tune the timing later.
- Finally, the Cascades should see quite a bit of snow next week.
- As of now, I don’t see any “arctic blast” or major snow/ice storm, we’re talking the heavy, wet, 32 degree snow.
Okay, so what’s changed? The news snow-train has left the station…
The GFS has come into line with the ECMWF the past 24 hours, and all models seem to be in agreement for an “onshore flow” low elevation snow pattern. I hate these. This pattern has at least a light or even moderate southerly wind up the Valley the whole time, so some spots can get 2″ as a batch of showers moves through and other spots nothing. The new GFS was signficantly wetter Monday and Tuesday as well. It has been lowering upper-level heights the past few runs, thus the cooler temps.
Tuesday and beyond it’s quite the battle between cold air to the north and westerly flow pushing in from the west. For now, I don’t see a setup for an easterly-flow type snow situation, but only a shift south in the models would bring surface low pressure systems in to our south, possibly setting up a big snow event. Something to keep an eye on. I notice the 00z GFS ensembles are almost all a bit colder than the operational GFS Tuesday-Thursday. Could be a sign that the heights will be even a bit lower, along with those lows a bit farther south…we’ll see:
Anyway, COULD be fun times ahead, or we might just get some marginal snow Sunday-Monday. Of course even that will be far better than anything else we’ve seen lately.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
00z shows why you always delay getting on the train. Cold rain at best. Ick.
There’s a door on the train, one can always exit at the next stop.
I don’t know, this looks awful wet and awful cold. I added up about 15 inches of snow from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.
Does this mean that further north of Portland has more moisture?
Never mind, that was weird. It has less moisture now than it did when 10 minutes ago. Still showing about 9-10 inches, but nowhere near the 15 a few minutes ago. Must have been a glitch that got fixed real quick or something.
And it stops on Tuesday now instead of Wednesday. Anybody run across something like this before? And yes, I was looking at the newest one, not an older one.
Seriously? We’re 6-8 days out and some people are already calling this a bust? I think we’ve got the models right where we want ’em. Enough cold air/baroclinicity to keep the storm track south but not quite enough to put is in dry arctic with the storms going into California. Meanwhile the arctic high hangs out in BC, just waiting for an excuse to come down. If not the midweek system, things will get interesting by the end of the week…just watch.
Does anyone really expect a solution from 7 days out to actually pan out? I’d be more worried about all this falling apart if the models had us dead in the crosshairs.
And the consolation prize of not getting a snow storm would at least be a healthy pineapple wind event. 🙂
GOLU is the rule baby…
And mow your lawn too if you feel like it… — It will help if a few flakes fall on you… Trust me 🙂
What exactly does GOLU mean?
That’s a trademark of mine…
Stands for: — Go, Outside, (and) Look, Up
Ahh.. Haha! Thanks for the laugh! And I like it!!
It’s the GOLU model…
The only alternative to the GFS or EURO that is 100% true, all the time… every time… — all day long!…
It will never fail.
Bob isn’t Mark. Its no snow or south wind. He’s playing a game of tomfoolery or monkey wrenches. Either way it’s comical. no one should take his texts for more than what they’re worth. Just play along. Kind of fun. Mark, it’s not a family member i promise. lol. Imɜ sure you know who itɜ is tho. Anyways, to the weather picture, not predicting anything but models look like so far that sticking snow can happen about anywhere starting late sunday and into wednesday. Moisture will be key. Daytime will definitively be different than night with the sticking snow. We shall see. By friday itɜ will be a lock as to what we get with this pattern next week. My fingers are locked. Good night “bob”. Do like the enthusiasm tho. By the way, where’s is Rob with all this? Would love to hear his take on all this
Rob has been banned.. unfortunately..
He isn’t banned, moderated comments only.
Who’s the mod?
We’ve lost power in SW Gresham
If you’re ready to give up on the snow chances you might want to shift your riding to the train of lows coming within 7 days or so. Looking fairly deep and in decent position for possible high wind the last few runs. Pass on the rusian vodka and order a mai tai or sea breeze instead?
Hmmmm… my initial take is the 00z sucks compared to what is possible with this pattern. It only gives a quick shot of chilly air Sunday with a few very light snow showers then moderation Monday with a few cool rain/snow mix showers then an average rainy pattern past hour 300. Not a good move by the 00z GFS. Hope this flips back to something better tomorrow, but not getting my hopes up too high.
DRAG!!! somebody say it aint so! lol
I agree with your take. Not giving up hope yet but not holding my breath either.
Agreed. Then a crazy train of warmer lows from Wednesday on…
Modern Family break…
Right. Then we’ll be watching vehicles/houses/trees moving around in the mud slides!
what did “bob/mark” do? mark….you cant ban yourself……yeah….someone help me…im confused
00z is weakening the low quite a bit this weekend…the good is we get more cold air, that bad is we get a bit less moisture.
okay…..IS BOB MARK OR NOT?! IF NOT WHO IS HE….? sorry bob/mark…or whoever you are.
I’m not Mark.
okay…then who are you? i was told your mark…or are you??? O.o
bob what is it looking like for the puyallup area im up on a hill about 600ft how much snow if any could i get
this might seem like a stupid question but….was wondering…can the “gusty east winds” have any impact on dropping that cold air further south as it comes in? creating some kind of vacuum er something suckin it down
That’s called a wet 100 watt lightbulb…
google a wet bulb…
Hahaah! You need to ask W7 about the vacuum, jt. He has some theories on those technical questions!
The 00z GFS WOW!!!
Pizza or burger? — There is no “wow” in weather’ing
Good night Bob.
Got to get up at 4:00 a.m.
Never stop believin’!
00z is definitely colder, but with less moisture. Wonder how hungry that coast range is this year… 😉
The cold air slides a bit further south on Sunday and doesn’t go over the ocean as much means much colder air. Anything that falls will be sticking snow down to the floor.
As suspected thus far…
Only a single cheese burger… Bob… there’s no need to create such drama here…
I simply is not cold enough unless you’re at “ahem” (ahem, Rod Hill)… — Unless you’re at 458′-3″…
— But you better mow your lawn if you’re at that elev… LOL.
Bob…you’re getting very close to getting banned.
Can ‘bob’ — Be banned?
Maybe “moderated” is a better choice. The constant drumbeat of “big snow coming” the past couple of winters is getting old. I think he’s baiting the rest of you.
I’ve never seen anything wrong with a little cheese on the end of a hook…
It makes fishers of men!… LOL..
Of course he’s baiting…and we bait right back. We know “bob” is full of you know what.. we just humor, laugh and move on. he’s not hurting anyone, just wish casting/baiting. we all know “bob” is just be silly. no harm done.
Can ‘one’ — Bait?… A master “baiter”…
I — did… NOT.. just say that… I promise.
Pics from Crown Point today:
61. A dog that doesn’t look too comfortable
86. Jeff measuring the wind
138. Tim Gordon having some fun in the wind
166. Rian training Riley to me the next Wx Ninja
175. Perhaps the most bizarre thing I’ve seen up at Crown Point besides the Christmas tree being thrown over the ledge 🙂
what the heck is on the hood of the pinked out car??
They are “eyelashes” 🙂
More evidence that the gradient isn’t the only thing driving the winds as was pointed out earlier:
Gradient down to 8
Wind just peaked at 80 MPH