Unusually Warm Temps Today

It was a very warm January morning/midday for most areas on the eastern side of the Willamette Valley and up into the Cascade Foothills:

Low 60s were widespread.  And check out the record highs east of the Cascades. 

Downtown Pendleton’s high of 70 was only one degree shy of the all-time January record.

AND, the 00z GFS is back to the usual programming, some sort of split flow or ridging through the 10-15 day period.  Hope you saved some nice screenshots of the 18z!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

193 Responses to Unusually Warm Temps Today

  1. Bob says:

    The 18z GFS just brought back the snowstorm for PDX 🙂

  2. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Chunky rain mix in gresham at 300 ft, temp hovering around 35-36

  3. SnowTiger says:

    It’s snowing in Sany at 980 ft

  4. germantownsummit1000' says:

    32.5

    Snow beginning to stick on the deck/grass

  5. Rob "Top of Scott" says:

    Currently, 34.3 with moderate wet snow falling on Mt Scott (elev. 1000′)

  6. temp hanging steady @ 38.1

  7. EmzinTigard says:

    My mom just called & said its a rain/snow mix at Sylvan.

  8. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    I’ve got snow forecasted for just eight days from now. It’s getting closer to maybe being a real possibility.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTDO

  9. W7ENK says:

    38F with light rain under the dome…
    Splat Test = Negative

    • Same here. Very light rain.

    • Garron Beaverton says:

      Well, maybe that feeling you had was for around the 20th of this month instead of Dec? If this pattern lets loose and we see 3-4 nice weeks of winter from the end of Jan -Feb, we’d ALMOST forget the agony of waiting this long, kinda like we ALMOST forgave summer for beginning so late since it stuck around a while once it finally kicked in.
      Haven’t tasted a Siberian vodka express in way too long…

    • Snohound says:

      Snowing on Mt. Scott

    • W7ENK says:

      :sigh:

      Memories of my last snowfall, December 29, 2009.

      It seems so long ago…

    • o.c.paul says:

      GREAT video Erik, right down to the last shot. I hope you get to shoot a longer 2012 edition.

  10. Garron Beaverton says:

    A lil bit of chunky rain driving through Mc Minnville and Gaston, and western Hillsboro, temps were right around 35-37.

    The temp is dropping on the hill tops too, tower temp at freezing around 1,800′.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/tower_temps/tower_temps.php?&units=F

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Time to utilize the GOLU model!

    • Garron Beaverton says:

      You know it Pappoose! Especially where you are located, I think you got some cooler air damned up and looks like the showers are turning a little cooler in the last batch of showers, dropping the snow level a wee bit more in the land of gravelly plains! GOLU goggles on for safety…

    • GOLU GOGGLES 🙂 🙂

    • splat test = 0 Just drove home from work. Not even chunky rain 😦

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Maintain a close watch Cherie, it ain’t over till it’s over. Was curious what the conditions were out your way.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Had a mix with heavier precip, drizzle/light stuff all rain. I’ve donned my GOGGLES! Hahaah!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Wooden mask and snow goggles. Little more than I want to pay though. Great style though.

      Eskimo Wooden Mask and Wooden Snow Goggles,
      Price Realized: $1,440.00

      . Includes a hand-carved mask resembling a human face and finished with caribou(?) hair on head, eyebrows, upper lip, and chin. Possibly Ingalik people from Lower Yukon River, height 8″; AND a pair of snow goggles with leather bridge over nose

  11. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    Snowing in sandy

  12. Longview - 400 ft says:

    High today 37.9
    Low this morning 33.8
    Currently 36.9

    Here’s hoping these models stay true to hours 1 through 48!!!

    LOL

  13. Bob says:

    The 18z GFS was a beautiful run if you want lots of snow for PDX metro. We have -9C temps to -13C temps starting at hr 192 all the way to hr 252 now. That’s atleast 60 hours (2.5 days) of arctic air. Combine that with .34 precip and that’s about 3 to 4 inches of snow right there, could be more. Also we have a transition event with even more moisture of snow and then sleet to freezing rain that could last 2 days. Timing is also moving up as we speak…..

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That’s the biggest thing… The event is sticking in the 14th-18th window. Not showing up on the 10th, then 11th, then 12th, and so on that we saw earlier when this first popped up on the models.

    • W7ENK says:

      BOB!!! 😀

      Now we KNOW it’s for realz gonna get close… but still flop in the end! 😆

      YAY!!! *\^_^/*

    • Bob says:

      Another thing is that the gorge and eastern wa/or is going to get pounded along with us with the initial snowstorm. The models are warming us up to fast once again and since the gorge and eastern wa/or will be snow covered, it’s going to keep funneling in the east winds and cold air as the L approaches.

    • Bob added an extra 0…It’s about 6 hour window with this run. the SSW flow starts fairly quickly at the surface.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The model data doesn’t indicate much in the way of off shore flow… Without that they may not be that far off. A warm and west pacific system crashing into PDX without high pressure built up on the east side would lead to a fast transition.

    • W7ENK says:

      @Ryan, identical to January 11th, 2011. 😉

    • Derek Hodges says:

      I am just going to say it, yeah of course it won’t happen, there now I can go on with my analysis without being attacked.

      Models 100% of the time underestimate offshore flow in that kind of situation, especially this far out. If we had all that snow and cold air in place it wouldn’t just move on out without a fight.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That isn’t always true… I recall a couple transition events that it wiped out the cold and snow quickly.

      I can also remember more than a few events that what was expected to be a quick displacing of cold air ended up lasting 2 days before it scoured out.

  14. vernonia1 says:

    Wow..just saw the pic of the sticking snow on the KPTV tower!

  15. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    One thing that we know for sure at this point is starting January 14th we will begin to transition to a colder regime in the PacNW though it remains to be seen how cold.

    Over the past 4-days we have seen the models flip-flop between cool dry to cold and dry with some wetter runs peppered in. But the timeline for these changes has been unchanged… 1/14-1/18 or so (not longer than 1/20).

    Another 5-7 days and details should be pretty well worked out. I’m fairly confident that we will be colder during the period… Whether or not it is enough for snow or if we will have enough moisture for snow is to be seen.

  16. Steve in Beavercreek 1,100' says:

    It’s currently down to 36° here in Beavercreek. with light snow falling.

  17. PaulB/Eugene says:

    It is important to remind ourselves that very small changes in the evolution of pattern can result in dramatic changes in our observed weather…the 18Z GFS is another run showing a large reservoir of cold air pooling over Canada and other points NE of us, with developing WSW flow undercutting the G of AK ridge with copious moisture overrunning the cold…this run showing a classic overrunning snowstorm for probably N Puget Sound/BLI area. Not much would need to change for this to become a PDX-SEA-BLI problem…a SLE-PDX-SEA-BLI problem, or even an EUG-PDX problem, or unfortunately just a YPR (Prince Rupert) problem. I still am not thinking that we will have this undercutting jet as westerlies have been plain dead for most of winter…especially between 35 and 45N. Anyway…this is how 1880, Feb 1916, Feb 1937, Dec 1996, Jan 2004 happens, and what did not happen in Jan 2011…the great motherbust.

  18. Josh (Gresham) says:

    18z GFS was very similar to 12z EURO with the development of the block from hours 168-192

    168
    GFS: http://i43.tinypic.com/bv507.gif
    EURO: http://i41.tinypic.com/35k6eft.gif

    192
    GFS: http://i42.tinypic.com/34gawl0.jpg
    EURO: http://i44.tinypic.com/vnpkqb.gif

  19. W7ENK says:

    FWD: from a friend of mine.

    Wow, and this is why you simply don’t drive at 60-plus in the snow.

    ***CAUTION, UNCENSORED LANGUAGE!!!***

    Dumb@$$

    • PaulO says:

      Nice manevver around the mess, NASCAR style.

    • Garron Beaverton says:

      ….and the camera man should get extra bonus points for being able to drive +60 on snowy roads while filming, texting his sister while posting this on youtube ?

  20. kerryt says:

    snowing like crazy on Chehalem Mountain! Everything is covered! YiPpiE!!!

  21. PaulB/Eugene says:

    did anyone see the 18Z GFS…another very interesting run.

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      18z GFS is GREAT run… and actually lines up fairly well with the 12z EURO for hr 192. Hmmm.. POSSIBLE model agreement? We’ll see!

      18z is a cold, snowy run. Good eye candy.

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Hrs 192-216 would be initial shot of cold air and some snow

      Hrs 252-276 would be good shot of snow

      Hrs 288-312 would be big snow, then ice storm for PDX, I think.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      The 18z GFS is quickly becoming my favorite model run of the day! It knows when we need a pick-me-up and it delivers!

    • W7ENK says:

      Whoa whoa WHOA!… Things don’t get started until Hour 192, going into the 300s? That’s Lala Land and beyond… in fact, I think you’re approaching Disney Land out that far! 😆

      I can’t look at the 18z myself at the moment… what does Hour 60 say? My faith drops to near 0 beyond then.

    • Yep looks good. Actually starting to see this shift into the higher res inside of 200 hrs. Lots of moisture in the long range as well but keeps the cold air just to our north past 300 hrs. Lots of potential there but definatly nice seeing this moving inside of 200.

    • Brief, I mean brief snow before the dreaded SSW wind kicks in and changes it to rain. Typical. To the N looks better…Olympia Northward.

    • 18Z is not good, nothing prolonged.. Quick shot and it’s out of here. Another run for the Seattle area though.

    • I would take a day of below 32 weather and a transition event at this point. I would not say the 18Z is bad. I think it’s the best run we’ve seen yet just because it’s starting to move the event inside 200 hrs. Just my opinion though.

  22. Brad says:

    You can’t call this winter a bust yet..but man, it’s getting tempting. No snow/cold in sight.

    • Brian in Bellingham says:

      Did you see the Euro? A major improvement. Everything is up in the air, read PaulB’s thoughts. Something really good could still happen. Still plenty of time and potential.

  23. Forest Grover says:

    Chunky rain right now

  24. PaulB/Eugene says:

    see analogs above…sorry no jan 1950 in there but looks good.

  25. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Friday, 12:30

    As best as I can see/explain it:

    Now: looking outside, low clouds, dry. Certainty goes downhill from here.
    Today: precip coming in, doubt more an tenth of an inch or so…inch or two of snow in mountains (as much as we will likely see in the next week)
    Sat/Sun: dry with modest ridging ahead of next trough passing mostly to our north on Monday night, not much precip with this.
    Tues: by then we have another ridge over our heads…stronger than one this weekend. Models vary in terms of where the ridge axis will be (UKMET has far enough west that northerly flow reaches NE WA/ID/MT for decent offshore flow, cool temps), most likely SSW to NNE oriented, axis over WA…weather under this ridge basically a copy and paste of what we have had much of last month or so. This ridge hangs around into next Wed, Thurs and Friday.
    What happens beyond then? All guesses welcome. So much flip flopping around, almost not worth mentioning much, but I will nonetheless.

    Ensembles:

    ESRL PDS GFS reanalysis: Last two runs have had negative height anomaly centered over northern BC, extending to AK and PacNW, positive anomaly over Aleutians, weak positive anomaly over SE USA, evolving over the second into third week of January.

    ECMWF: 00Z run last night had a yucky ridge over the PacNW on the operational run, however the ensemble mean was almost 300m lower in 500mb heights over OR, with correspondingly higher heights over western AK/Aleutians…so ensemble suggests troughing over the NW USA and western Canada. ECMWF 12 operational looks good at 240…don’t know if low cutting off NE of Hawaii wants to do dirty work and keep trough from dropping over NW later on.

    GFS Ensembles, NAEFS Ensembles have seem to hang on with neg anomaly center around Yukon, with pos center to west of AK, still some pos anomalies in western USA, slight neg in east, with cross polar flow.

    Canadian ensembles…don’t feel they were that much different from GFS.

    Would comment that I do not see much support for concept of ridge pinching off over AK with undercutting westerlies..which would have been a setup for much needed rains in CA/OR/WA…only a member or two of the GFS ensembles showed this.

    In the end, will it snow here? Not this week. Not until after the weekend of Jan 14/15. My guess is that it will get cold here at some point the week following, but more likely a relatively dry cold episode rather than lots of rain and snow with it. So..whether it gets cold or not here, I sense that we have ongoing bad news for ski areas. If westerlies undercut ridging then that all changes…perhaps very quickly. With minimal snowpack…don’t foresee flooding if that happened (as in Jan/Feb 1996). If cold air gets here first…then a Dec 96 type snow event could happen.

    Your guess is a good as mine.

    • Marcus, loves snow! in La Center says:

      33 degrees and foggy in La Center at 1pm and moisture not to far to away, I know the precipitation is light but, any chance for some snowflakes? Or is it to warm above the fog layer to change to snow?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I think the bigger concern is going to be for droughts this summer with lack of snow pack and no strong signal that this will change soon.

    • W7ENK says:

      Joe Bastardi is a nit-wit… am I the only one who thinks this?

      Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
      Cold to engulf northwest too. Portland Oregon to Portland Maine, to perhaps Port Charlotte fla, all going to taste winter Jan 13 on

      12:32 PM – 6 Jan 12 via web

      C’mon man, really??! :facepalm:

    • W7ENK says:

      I’ve only been following him for two days now — since he’s been mentioned a few times on here in the past week. He’s blowing up my feed with this useless garbage, and I’m already considering dropping him. That crap just popped up on my phone a bit ago… outrageous BS! Does anyone actually take him seriously? I pity the fool. 😆

    • Brian in Bellingham says:

      JoeB may or may not be right about this, and he does have the tendency to overhype, but he doesn’t get paid the big bucks for being wrong most of the time.

      Why do you think it would be so amazing if we got cold? Your tone makes it sound like it is a physical impossibility, and that what he is saying is like predicting a baseball team will go 162-0 during the season.

      But he does twitter so often I find it easy just to look at his twitter page rather then get it sent automatically.

    • W7ENK says:

      I just happened to see it while perusing my Twitter app. I’m not saying that it’s an impossibility, but at this point there really are no practical signs that what he is saying will come true, but by the same token, there’s nothing that says it won’t. I guess I’m just discouraged, partly because his confidence that we’d be getting said pattern change today (originally), and well, GOLU says otherwise. That, and constantly ramming his drivel down my Feed-hole is really obnoxious. I get it. He thinks there will be a major shift. He thinks it will snow in the PNW. So did I. I was wrong. He was wrong. Now what?

      Besides, I’ve been more interested in sniffing around solar patterns today, looking for any correlations to past extended minimums and whatnot, but the ADD is pretty bad today, so I keep finding myself skipping down other random paths on the internets, with the occasional weather tweet from BigJoe being interjected into my frolicking.

      So no, I haven’t thrown in the towel yet, but if things don’t… hey look, bright shiney! :mrgreen:

    • W7ENK says:

      Besides, can something actually be considered a legit “pattern change” if it’s only transitory at best, before reverting back to something that closely resembles the last 6 weeks of doldrums we’ve just experienced? Yeah, I know, no proof of that in the beyond either…

  26. Pinecone says:

    Just curious, at what point does one start worrying about lack of rain and snow pack and the possibility of summer drought conditions?

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      I’d say within another month. Seems like PDX was at a similar point around this time last year but was bailed out by a very wet and cool spring. If the dry pattern continues it could spell major problems this summer though.

  27. stevied (North Portland) says:

    EURO is actually somewhat decent this morning compared to the GFS.

  28. I guess I should mention it was my driest December in my 16 years of records! Totally forgot to mention that previously.

    2.23″ which beats out the 3.07″ I had in December of 2008.

  29. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think at this point I’m going to wait for the Jan 14th-16th to get into the high resolution range before I get excited with any more flip-flops. I’m hoping within the higher resolution we well get a more realistic look at what might be coming towards us.

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