Wednesday Morning Update: Rainy Everywhere

It’s raining and very warm this morning…

Check out the 24 hour totals up in the mountains:  Timberline doesn’t plot on this map, but it’s just under 5″ at 10am.  That’s in the past 24 hours!  A very wet day in the mountains.

Down here in the Valleys the gusty southerly wind is gone until we get to Thursday night.  That’s when the final wave and sharp cold front passes through.  Until that time, we stay very mild.  It’s in the mid 50s here in the western valleys this morning…first time this month.

Behind that cold front Friday, snow levels plummet with a much cooler airmass.  Models show 850mb temps down to around -7 deg C by Saturday morning.  Of course it’s the usual story of the cold air filtering in as showers end Friday evening and overnight.  But this IS the sort of pattern where we get random dustings of snow on the hills.  Up in the mountains it’s good news as possibly 6-10″ snow falls from Friday morning to Friday night.  That’ll make up for today’s washout.

The GFS is looking even more like the ECMWF this morning…much drier the early part of next week.  Note the strong easterly wind New Year’s Eve through Monday too.  New Year’s Day (Sunday) could be a totally sunny day.

The 12z GFS shows a significant change about two weeks from now; I know, I know…it’s only 14 days away and the first model to show it, but a man has to have some sort of hope that our Pacific Northwest Winter can be rescued still…  It’s a change to much colder westerly and northwest flow, similar to what we saw during the La Nina winter of 2007-2008.  We’ll see how the ECMWF looks this morning.

Chief Meterologist Mark Nelsen

53 Responses to Wednesday Morning Update: Rainy Everywhere

  1. Just got back from our Caribbean Cruise where it was 80 degrees and sunny every day. I see I didn’t miss much. Maybe a few flakes in the air this Friday/Saturday…typical cooler air arrives and moisture on the way out. Oh well. Liking the long range….finally showing some chilly air. I know, I know…it’s a ways out BUT at least it has something.

  2. W7ENK says:

    I see it snowed in P’yŏngyang, North Korea today. They’re about the same latitude as Sacramento, CA at an elevation of 38m (125 feet), ~50 miles inland (east) from the Yellow Sea… Probably means nothing, but perhaps it’s an indicator that arctic air is pushing southward? Maybe it’ll do the same over here, next??

    Hopeful, if nothing else…

    • David B says:

      The Korean Peninsula has easy access to arctic air from Siberia. Their winters are surprisingly cold for their latitude and altitude.

      Snow is not unusual in either Pyongyang or Seoul.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I’m pretty sure they get plenty of snow and much colder average weather than we do here in the winter. But, I will grasp at anything being a sign of the goods being delivered here at this point.

    • vinnybob says:

      Seole S. Korea is much colder than here, I think what’s more unreal is that New Zealand has almost 20 ski resorts.

    • W7ENK says:

      Damn. Well, like I said: hopeful, if nothing else.

      As for New Zealand, it’s the “Pacific Northwest” of the Southern hemisphere! I’ve never been there, but from the many photos I’ve seen of the country, they have coastlines with beaches that look just like Oregon’s, mountainous areas that look just like the Cascades or even the Western Rockies, complete with rivers, meadows, waterfalls, and little known viticultural regions. Hell, they’re even sit next to an active offshore subduction zone fault… If I had to live anywhere else on this planet (and Estonia wasn’t an option) NZ is top on my list because it most closely resembles my home here. Only differences I can imagine would be the silly accents and the toilets swirl the wrong way! 😆

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    You guys enjoy your awesome weather while I sulk under the most boring skies EVER. Although its a nice sunset either way ^_^

  4. W7ENK says:

    So I just looked out the window a few minutes ago, and I noticed that it appears to be a bit more breezy this afternoon than it was yesterday at this time? So in looking at the current WV image, there’s a surprise little low that looks to have popped up about to slam into the southern part of Vancouver Island…

    http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=wv

    Nice hook, nice dry slot… Any thoughts on wind tonight???

    Oh, and Jeff is yacking over on FB about some “Windicator” thingie? I have no idea what that is, but it sounds… useful?? o_O

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Now finally the region get a taste of TRUE pineapples!!! I love the KRTX radar right about now ^_^

    • W7ENK says:

      Not quite pineapples, Timmy… The source of all this moisture is well North of Hawaii. But, that doesn’t make it any less wet! 😆

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Even in the full bucket o’ them pineapples, Klamity Ville somehow finds a way to clear it’s skies! Ahhhhh!!!! Go away sun!!! ^_^

  6. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Looks like the notion that many folks and I have had on the blog wit a blast come mid-January may still come true…

    …I was about to stick a fork in this winter if something didn’t materialize in the next 7 days.

  7. PaulO says:

    End of 18z GFS run = sweet.

    If only!

    • pdxgeologist says:

      That’s two runs in a row (although the 12z looked wetter when the cold air arrives)…It’s a lock.

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s trying… would like to see some consistency, and bring it inside Fcst Hr 120 (or 12!), but methinks the models are beginning to lean in the right direction… 🙂

    • gidrons says:

      Yes, its far enough out to be meaningless but close enough to get excited. More importantly, its a little wetter and a little colder for Friday night. I would be waking up on Saturday to a white yard if it verifies (hills above Scappoose).

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s gotta start somewhere though, right?

  8. boringlarry says:

    dry december gone
    lost record becomes deluge
    who primed the pump

  9. Portland International Airport has now accumulated 0.90″ of rainfall for the month of December. This surpasses the all-time driest December on record set in 1876 when just 0.88″ of rain fell.

  10. muxpux (Castle Rock, WA 175') says:

    2.68″ 48hr total, 2.20″ in 24 hours…

  11. Halverbk says:

    Mt. Bacehelor said go to Bend today. Still charging $73 if you really really want to ski. Looking forward to Friday and beyond so the 3 out of 5 days for $99 deal might not be a gift to MB.

    Brad

  12. PaulB/Eugene says:

    12:50 iPhone update:
    6-10 inches by am 12/31 in Cascades look good…12/31 and 1/1 look like good days to ski, although new snow may not make up for previous loss via rain today.
    1st week Jan ridgy and mild (or cool/fog at times)….not what I would call the dreaded Big Ridge…transient cold trough sends cold shot SE USA…
    GFS op 12z looks nice for ski resorts …ensembles not as cold though…excitement contained for now.
    CFS 12/27 run looking colder once again toward Jan week 3 and 4…..especially in BC.
    Long way to go. Don’t take the studs off.

  13. Dave in South Salem says:

    Mark was spot on regarding his warning about skiing today

  14. Brad says:

    It aint’ nuthin’ til it verifies.

  15. I had 1.30″ of rain from 6am yesterday to 6am this morning. 0.68″ since 6am today. If we get a January 2008 type pattern I better go out and buy a snow blower and some cross country skis. My location probably had at least 50-60 inches in January 2008. The Silver Falls station which gets less snow generally than my location had a 3-day storm total of 37″ at one point.

  16. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    .39 since midnight so far here in NE Portland.

  17. W7ENK says:

    I can’t read my rain gauge from here in the office, but it hasn’t stopped raining downtown yet, all morning. With a (~36 hour) storm total at the time I left the house this morning at 0.50″, I’d venture to guess I’ve probably added another 0.20″ or so since 6am?

    So, what kind of winds are we talkin’ for Thursday, Mark?
    45-55 G70? Wouldn’t that be crazy awesome?! 😯

  18. muxpux (Castle Rock, WA 175') says:

    2.42″ in the last 36 hours here. 1.97 in 24.

  19. Garron Beaverton says:

    and….Mark said winter’s back!!!!! I’m think he’s just trying to get us geeks back to studying the maps, and getting excited. Darn, just when I’d pulled my shorts out of storage! Ok, ok, gonna go look at the ECMWF, I prefer the GOLU, but what ever! This had better be worth the wait!!!

  20. Ken ( S. Salem 500ft.) says:

    I am really liking the huge pattern shift in the next two weeks. Would be incredible if it verifies

  21. boringlarry says:

    … 1.45 total so far this event… .88 since midnite…

  22. Ken ( S. Salem 500ft) says:

    First

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