December 28, 2011
Here are the numbers…wow. Timberline Lodge has been seeing 1/4 to 1/3″ rainfall per hour for the last 24 hours!
Leading up to the big flood on the Sandy River last January, we saw totals up around 9″ at Timberline Lodge. Please let us know if you start to see flooding in your area.
Back here in Portland, only around 1″ so far, so no flooding expected, especially with the rain ending this evening.
11pm Update: Here are the new numbers as of 10pm…
Can’t believe we haven’t seen flood problems up along the upper Sandy River, but our news people say nothing’s going on up there. Let me know if that’s not the case.
The NWS has the Hood and Clackamas Rivers under a Flood Watch due to all the mountain rain. The 12 hour break (the next 12 hours) in rain up there should help quite a bit.
Not much to talk about in the longer range maps tonight. Weak systems attempt to pass through a mild West Coast Ridge the first few days of 2012. So no significant weather through at least the middle of next week.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
December 28, 2011
It’s raining and very warm this morning…
Check out the 24 hour totals up in the mountains: Timberline doesn’t plot on this map, but it’s just under 5″ at 10am. That’s in the past 24 hours! A very wet day in the mountains.
Down here in the Valleys the gusty southerly wind is gone until we get to Thursday night. That’s when the final wave and sharp cold front passes through. Until that time, we stay very mild. It’s in the mid 50s here in the western valleys this morning…first time this month.
Behind that cold front Friday, snow levels plummet with a much cooler airmass. Models show 850mb temps down to around -7 deg C by Saturday morning. Of course it’s the usual story of the cold air filtering in as showers end Friday evening and overnight. But this IS the sort of pattern where we get random dustings of snow on the hills. Up in the mountains it’s good news as possibly 6-10″ snow falls from Friday morning to Friday night. That’ll make up for today’s washout.
The GFS is looking even more like the ECMWF this morning…much drier the early part of next week. Note the strong easterly wind New Year’s Eve through Monday too. New Year’s Day (Sunday) could be a totally sunny day.
The 12z GFS shows a significant change about two weeks from now; I know, I know…it’s only 14 days away and the first model to show it, but a man has to have some sort of hope that our Pacific Northwest Winter can be rescued still… It’s a change to much colder westerly and northwest flow, similar to what we saw during the La Nina winter of 2007-2008. We’ll see how the ECMWF looks this morning.
Chief Meterologist Mark Nelsen