Christmas Vacation: More Dull Weather Ahead

I will be off tomorrow, and in fact I will be on vacation next week.  Next working day is Christmas Day for me.  No big deal since we just have a short 10pm show and I can come in once the kids are totally absorbed in their new toys and aren’t paying attention to me anyway…

Just for fun, this is the 10 day ECMWF upper-level forecast for Christmas Day.    Look at that upper-level ridge!  Hard to believe it’ll still be around…we’ll see.  Looking farther ahead, here’s the 16 day GFS ensemble 500mb height forecast valid New Year’s Eve.   It’s very smoothed of course because it’s the average of many different ensemble members, but notice the ridge is still there along the western North America coastline.


I’ll be in the area the whole time (relaxing, projects, eating etc…), so you know I’ll be looking at the maps every morning when I wake up.  It’s safe to say there will be no new post unless I see something of interest in the maps.

Merry Christmas!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

550 Responses to Christmas Vacation: More Dull Weather Ahead

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Can you say, Christmas Day candlelight forecast? Hahaah!

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    One question: May someone lend a link to the CFS model? Lost it and I can’t find it

  3. W7ENK says:

    Okay, seriously…

    Who wants to help me build one of these things up on out own Crown Point? It’d be a perfect spot!

  4. W7ENK says:

    Looks like most everything is stacked against us getting any cold air in here in at least the next 2-3 weeks.

    AO – 12/25/2011

    ^^ I’m a little unsure about the disparity between the end of observations and the beginning of the forecast period… just a little odd?

    NAO – 12/25/2011

    And the one I think is most relevant to us…

    PNA – 12/25/2011

    Maybe things will switch toward the negative before the season progresses too far along for us to see a good shot of snow… you know, like last year? 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Until at least two of these (including the PNA) switch Negative, we’re pretty much screwed for cold and snow…

      Don’t forget, that window (generally) slams shut in only 6-7 more weeks…

  5. W7ENK says:


    Could we get that all in snow, please???

    So much for a record dry December… 😦

  6. Kyle says:

    According to this chart

    The AO dipped a little bit negative late October and that’s when we had the frosty nights around Halloween due to the lag between cold air buildup and it spilling down to us.

    Then it was mostly positive except for a tiny dip in November when a few days later we had snow down to 1K and Andrew Johnson reported a few inches of slop as he puts it.

    Most of December was VERY positive and what’s causing the positive remains unknown.

    Probably underwater volcanoes as it won’t take much to keep it stuck in a certain phase like a broken record……..record…………..record…………..record…………..record…………..record…………………………………………record………………………………………………………………….*voice wobbly* recoooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrd………………………………………..

    • Problem with that, we are Upstream from the Atlantic. As has been mentioned before, we might be affected indirectly, after whatever happens makes it’s way around the world. But remember, we live Downstream from the biggest ocean in the world.

      Now the East Coast is a different matter.

  7. Merry Christmas everyone! Light rain and 40.2 up here. Looks like about 0.20″ in the old rain gauge.

    • Kyle says:

      Wow! I wasn’t even looking at any of the post-names and my post talking about your snowfall appeared right above yours.

      I was too excited about the AO chart to read the names. :p

      I also believe if the NAO in addition to the AO that will determine where the artic air will go.

      Right now I believe the NAO is positive as well so therefore everybody is getting a bag of coal for X-mas this year. 😦

  8. The blog gets its Christmas wish. The end of boring weather!! 🙂

  9. Cap - Hood River says:

    Snow falling in HR.. ya !!

  10. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Merry Christmas! Maybe Santa will deliver a nice model run later today.

    41.6°, 31.21″➚, SSE@5mph, and not enough precip to tip the rain bucket… yet.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Been out of the blogs because of boring weather doldrums. 🙂 you know me

    Anyways, Merry christmas to all

  12. Laura in Corbett says:

    We left Woodburn around 10 pm last night. 38 degrees there and by the time we got here to Corbett it was 49 degrees… bizarre weather…

  13. bgb41 says:

    12/24/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:69 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low:46 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft) & LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft) & SIGNAL TREE(3294 ft) & GOODWIN PEAK(1800 ft) & NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft)

    High:28 at MORGAN MOUNTAIN(4200 ft) & TIPTON(5150 ft)
    Low: 1 at HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    COFFEE POT FLAT (55/12 ) (5206 ft )
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (51/8) (6100 ft)
    KLAMATH NWR (48/5) (4531 ft)
    Lakeview, Lake C (46/3) (4734 ft)

    • Kyle says:

      Do you think Global Warming is what’s causing the AO to be stuck in positive for so long as well as keeping the jet stream north as in summer time mode?

      I am NOT saying the Pacific Northwest is doomed as I believe Global Warming will increase the frequency of thunderstorms in spring/summer which I am very much looking forwards too and can have other benefits if prepared for. 🙂

      Thunderstorms for Timmy Supercell to track for us.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Ya got that right Kyle!

    • Kyle says:

      Are you looking forwards to that F2 tornado roaring down the valley tearing up Salem and the capital full of hot-air? (as long as everyone can evacuate safely)

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Destruction of Salem would not be something ‘wish’ for but yeah I’m hoping for some candy for my camera lens to chew on… Some quality youtube action. But not until around May/June most likely

  14. Garron Beaverton says:



  15. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    It looks like the 00z is still keeping the 1-2 day chance for snow around the 7th or 8th of January. That’s 3 runs in a row!

    • Chris s says:

      I think most of us are looking at it as the slight glimmer of hope that it’s the beginning of a pattern change. Not holding my breath but it’s at least a baby step. Time will tell.

    • PaulO says:

      06Z = Four and extends it a bit…

    • And the 12z destroys it, and is the worst run I’ve seen in a long time…and they’ve all been pretty bad lately………. :\

    • Emily Waldman says:

      We likey! Presently Pineapple Express paying us a visit 45, rain & breeze! Merry Christmas!

    • chris s says:

      Those darn baby steps get us everytime. Honestly it looks like if we are gonna see anything at all this year its gonna be end Jan or beginning of February. This has been a very boring meteorlogical winter so far, and the next two weeks looks boring as well, light or moderate rain, no big wind storms, nada. But oh well, it aint over till its over, right!! Merry Christmas

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      12Z wasn’t that bad. Keeps colder air in the long term.

  16. Kyle says:

    I forgot this is Christmas Eve and nobody wants to hear about trouble.

    I’ll ask a few days later again.

    Sorry. There I go again with attracting rushed/bad luck timing situations even on here! :p

    I can’t escape it no matter where I go but obviously it’s God’s will to punish me until I learn some valuable lesson?

  17. Kyle says:

    Plus I wind up attracting misunderstandings which makes me feel flustered and shut down.

    I just attract the worst possible timings.

  18. Kyle says:

    I have a question?

    Why is it whenever I try to make a conversation with someone I always seem to catch them when they are rushed.

    It does not matter if they are strangers or friends.

    If someone within my wavelength catches my eye it’s always when they are in a hurry and I cannot hold anything long except *hi* or *bi* just about.

    It’s not a fluke. It happens over and over like a broken record and I am frankly sick of it if that’s what a relationship is all about is being in rushed/adrenalin pumping situations.

    I pretty much don’t want to be in a relationship EVER if that’s the only way as it’s just too streesfull on my health and muscles.

  19. Another warm Christmas Eve! This was my warmest Christmas Even since 2005 when it was 57 degrees (also my record high for the date).

    My coldest high for Christmas eve was 33.4 in 2009.

    Looking at my record lows for December at my Vancouver station, I have never hit the teens the first 6 days of December or the last 8 days. Last year was close on the 31st with a low of 20.3.

    By the way, it was very nice meeting you Annie in Vancouver!

    • Kyle says:

      Merry X-mas for those who are lucky to have friends to show off their gifts and family to talk to. 🙂

      Here is a link to a musical house with Christmas Lights to the tune of Steamroller: Deck The Halls:

      It uses Lights-O-Rama system.

  20. PaulO says:


  21. can’t remember all the names
    so many through the years
    storms and snow with model riding joy
    create brotherhood and cheer
    holiday greetings to all now and then
    let us all hope
    the death ridge will end

  22. kcteach says:

    Took the dog for a walk up at Larch Mt (OR) yesterday and there was no snow. I was hoping, but no dice. Still cold and beautiful.

    Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and peace to all. Here’s to a more interesting weather new year.

  23. Kyle says:

    Guess how cold my temp was today in the shade down here in Silverton.

  24. josh says:

    i hope the clear sky’s hold for awhile and allow things to cool down to make it fill more like Christmas

  25. Jory (Sandy) says:

    I think this upcoming night calls for a Silent Night…

    Merry Christmas Everyone, and, to everyone, a good night!

  26. Warmest day of the month today. High of 57.2.

  27. EmzinTigard says:

    Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you all have a blessed evening & a great day tomorrow!! I did see it was -22F in Fairbanks.. that’s a good thing right? 😀

  28. Laurie (Sylvan) says:

    Merry Christmas everyone! I enjoy being part of this group, even though I mostly just lurk. I’ve met several of you in person, and you’re a nice bunch. Enjoy the sun!

  29. PaulB/Eugene says:

    18z is stocking stuffer…where’s the big box from

    • Steve in Salem says:

      Do we get a lump of coal or something to look forward to?

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      18Z has arctic air at end of run…but it is a relatively modest outbreak…at least it is a step in the right direction

    • chris s says:

      A very small stocking stuffer, but its a glimmer of hope after a month of junk we have had. Come on Santa, we have all been good this year, bring us something, anything, and if you make us wait till february, that will be ok as long as you bring Feb 89′ with you again. 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      Low of 0F at Salem that year.

    • chris s says:

      Ya Kyle, only time in my lifetime seeing a negative number on the outdoor thermometer, here in hills of west salem i believe it touched -2 where i was at. I would love to see that again, with the snow of course too. 🙂

  30. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    50.9 degrees. I almost feel like I should be hanging ornaments on my palm trees. It seems more appropriate. This is the warmest Christmas I can remember in a very long time.

    Merry Christmas Eve everyone!!!

  31. W7ENK says:

    Merry Christmas, folks!

    Now, I’m going back to bed…

    *cough cough cough!* 😦

  32. ashley watson says:

    it doesn’t matter what happens in the future ive already given up on trying to forecast the rest of this year. i’m going to lick my wounds and move on to next year. you all should do the same.

    • W7ENK says:

      :sigh: What? o_O

      Here’s my forecast through the end of the year – it’s quite simple, actually:

      It’s ‘onna rain.


  33. W7ENK says:

    My view from laying in bed…

    Oh, what a beautiful morning! Is it going to stay like this? I haven’t been paying much attention these past couple of days…

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh wow… Never mind. I must have had just the perfect cloud-free view out my narrow window… It’s almost solid clouds now. 😦

  34. Garron Beaverton says:


    Thanks for your hard work and keeping this blog interesting, your crown point sensor, and making it snow on the blog! It may be a long winter is this is all the snow we get, but alas, at least we have the blog picnic to look forward to at the bottom of the model riding cliff if we find ourselves snowless by March…

    Everyone have a great holiday, and all I want for Christmas is winter to arrive…HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!!!

  35. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Christmas Eve 10:30AM

    Yesterday and today surprisingly mild. Looks as if Pacific fire hydrant will be pointed at OR/WA between Dec 27 and 30, with likelihood of getting back to at least half of normal Dec. precip by month’s end.

    Get your skis on and get on the slopes on Boxing Day…it ain’t going to be good afterward for a little while. Significant rains at high elevations are going to do damage to snowpack…could wind up with all snow at Government Camp being gone before it starts to snow again on Dec 30…could earn back 6-12 inches on that day before ridging sets in for New Year’s Day and the first week of 2012. May not be bad skiing up on the Magic Mile then.

    Arctic prognostics:

    See absolutely no chance between now and about Jan 7. Looking at ensemble runs: GFS through day 15 has period of ridging over West USA for first week of Jan. Canadian trending a bit towards possible retrogression…though weakly so. PSD Ensemble the most notable for ridging over G of AK…but still not high enough amplitude to drive the north pole down to us anytime soon.

    Who knows…a week from now, models may be advertising something totally different. Have to wait and see.

    CFS runs still showing arctic air….around end of Jan into first week of Feb.

    Stratospheric warming over NE Asia…progressing toward NW NoAm in next 10 days. Arctic air more likely to drive S into lower 48 mid Jan….at this point it looks like Midwest/Great Lakes.

    An incredible run of uninteresting weather since the last week of November.

    Have a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year to everyone. I am thankful I am not fogged in for Christmas, which happens all to often in Mahlon Sweet Land (Eugene).

  36. I’m well on my way to my first 50 degree reading of the month. 45.6 currently. Just ran the numbers and I am currently running a -2.5F temp departure for the month. After next week I will likely end up with a near normal December in terms of temp, which is what I predicted, I blew the precip forecast though, I thought it would be above average!

  37. GeekyMominCamas says:

    Merry Christmas all! May this holiday find you surrounded by those you love!!!

  38. thomas from st.helens says:

    The 12z GFS is a wet one. on the bright side the blocking high is going to be history. we also probably won’t get a record for driest december. But I’m pretty sure we already set a record for most days and nights of fog. Also Arctic out break making its way back in the end of the GFS 12z. Even tho its lala land at least its something to hope for.

  39. Already 40 degrees here. I think this is the earliest hour I’ve hit 40 this month. Low was just 37.

  40. What an incredibly boring season so far. With not a single ounce of hope in sight.

  41. […] Heaviest Rainfall: 0.62″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft) 0.43″ at Astoria Regional(10ft) Reply […]

  42. bgb41 says:

    12/23/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:63 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 45 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)

    High:26 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: -5 at HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (51/1 ) (4360 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.62″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)
    0.43″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  43. PaulB/Eugene says:

    If ECMWF is correct, PDX will get 4.4 inches of rain before New Years…so much for record dry Dec.

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