Models Back Off On Cold Air Next Week

December 1, 2011

Earlier today I was thinking I should accelerate the timing of putting my studs on (soon!), but now I’m feeling better about waiting a bit longer.  I’m also VERY glad I didn’t go nuts on putting real cold weather or snow in my 7 Day forecast!

That’s because this evening all 3 main long range models have decided that we’ll continue to have mild and/or boring weather through next week.  Take a look at the 12z GFS Ensemble 850mb temps, really cold around Wednesday-Thursday next week, then a gradual warming trend.    But here is the new 00z….gruesome if you want cold weather:   The 00z ECMWF just came out and returns the upper level ridge right over the top of us by Day 10 (12th of December).  So that doesn’t leave a lot of hope for a big pattern change…we’ll see.   It’s very unusual to have a long dry spell, more than 5 days or so, in December.  The GFS shows little to no rain in the next two weeks!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


2011: One of the Warmest On Record So Far

December 1, 2011

I noticed this report from the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) this week.  Here are the highlights with my additions in green:

  • The past decade ties for the world’s hottest on record (since the mid 1800s)
  • 13 of the warmest years globally have occurred within the past 15 years
  • 2011 now ranks as the 10th warmest since accurate records were kept in 1850
  • The extent of Arctic sea ice has shrunk to the second-lowest level on record (records go back to 1979)

Of course not here in the Pacific Northwest…I’ve blogged endlessly about the chilly late February through July.  And now November was below average once again.  We’ll see about December. 

Speaking of December, those maps sure are interesting again today aren’t they?  A big arctic blast next Wednesday-Thursday or just sunny and a little cooler?  Dartboard is getting mounted on wall right now; I’ll give my thoughts later after 00z info comes in.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen