Dull Weather Ahead

Weather maps are unimpressive for the next 7 days.  An upper level ridge will sit just to our west most of the period.  Not right over us for a massive inversion and east wind event, and not far enough to the west to allow cold arctic air to spill south.  Just real dead with no significant weather systems moving through, but I needed to post SOMETHING new. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

77 Responses to Dull Weather Ahead

  1. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Lots of freezing fog here this morning. Hopefully we will get some of the real white stuff this year!

  2. umpire says:

    Don’t forget the bar-b-cue and libations at the bottom of the cliff in case all of this disappears from future model runs 🙂

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    …and buckle up…pull those belts up tight…more than likely the start of a wild ride…

  4. Holee sheet the 12Z GFS looks arctic. Nothing to add… Just wanted to express my excitement. Git yer studs on

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    GFS12Z operational obviously a step in the right direction…however the GFS ensembles actually were a little less cold at hr 216 than 6Z run….so excitement should be exercised a bit of due caution.

  6. 12z WRF 36km 925mb/SLP
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_x_slp+///3
    This is a large scale view which shows nicely how the 500mb pattern comes together. Pretty, ain’t it?

    4:00 PM Wednesday, December 7th


    All of that bitter air over BC/AB is going to move south directly over us due to ridge placement/configuration offshore.

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    I like the 12z GFS, especially hours 180-240 – definitely cold enough for snow. 850mb temps in PDX bottom out around -15, with some moisture accompanying the arctic front as it sags S-SW. And it shows this event starting before the resolution change, which is encouraging.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The only thing I don’t like is that temps are barely cold enough to support snow and it is showing S winds shifting onshore as the front approaches during the moisture. Could keep the snow off the valley floor and when we finally get cold enough and the flow shifts off shore the moisture is gone.

    • gidrons says:

      Ensembles are generally on board too through hour 200

  8. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Weeeeeeeeeee 🙂

  9. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Text output of 12z is fun…

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

    PDX (Troutdale) gets to -17c 850mb temps
    Seattle gets to -19c
    Pendleton gets to -23c 850mb temps

  10. NR says:

    12 z gfs = bingo

  11. 12z GFS is definitely a great run and the main thing, the trend westward continues. I like how the block meanders west, then the shortwave diving down the BC Coast pushes further towards the west as the ridge tilts up through Alaska, then the flow turns N-NE and the fun begins.

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    It’s sunny in them there hills:

  13. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Hr 168… -7c overhead with light snow showers around as front comes through.

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      hr 180… -8c overhead with light snow in PDX.

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Hr 186… -10/-11c overhead (brrrr!) with light snow!

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Hr 192… -13/-14c overhead PDX. Nice!

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Hr 204… -16c over PDX… wow! Too bad the likelihood of this panning out isn’t high. GREAT RUN!!

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      -16C, wow! What would that equate to for high temps in the lowlands? Upper teens or so?

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Not 100% sure on temps.. but highs in 20’s for sure… lows maybe in low teens or single digits.

      12z says this would begin about Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning (in about 6.5 days from now)

      Let the model riding for possible “Artic Blast 2011” officially begin.

  14. stevied (North Portland) says:

    NICE RUN on 12z so far! Hr 162…. Arctic air coming to PDX with -6c overhead!

  15. PaulB/Eugene says:

    12GFS may deliver some decent goods….significantly higher height rises over AK at hr 141…should result in stronger height falls over NW USA hr 168…will wait and see

  16. Ken ( S. Salem 500ft.) says:

    2 more days until artic blast 2011 mania begins. Les schuab has thier checkbooks ready.

  17. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Trend is our friend….6z overall colder looking with arctic air closer by day 8….ECMWF EPS Control (not mean) has arctic air (sub minus 10C 850mb) in BLI by 192h, PDX by 216.

  18. It’s only one model run, but the 6z GFS is much better. Ridge fluctuates offshore FCST HR 96-180 and it looks like mean ridge axis is 144-148 W Due to amplification and 500mb configuration shortwave energy dives south out of BC much closer to the PNW. It would be nice if the 12z continues this westward trend.

  19. bgb41 says:

    11/29/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at PRINEVILLE 4NW(2840 ft)
    Low: 44 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 16 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW (60/23 ) (2840 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.37″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    0.30″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft)

  20. josh says:

    so what type of pattern can follow after cool dry weather

  21. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Haha, over on KATU’s weather page it says that a prominent meteorologist from the University of WA thinks the worst of the winter weather is over. Winter doesn’t even start for 3 more weeks. If we’ve already had the worst, I guess it’s going to be a really boring next 4 months. That just sounds like a silly prediction to me.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      He posted the same thing last year. Maybe I’ll do a weather graphic on it tomorrow night. Late November and early December is on average our wettest time of the year. It GRADUALLY turns drier from now until late July. Of course it’s barely drier the next 2 months or so.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Actually this blog entry of Cliff Mass’s is a great way to introduce the question: just how *do* we define the seasons?

      If you go by precipitation then his argument makes sense. If you go by temperature, the “worst” isn’t over until late January.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      The point is that seasons are hard to agree upon because so many different seasonal weather phenomena come and go, and they don’t fit nicely into perfect season categories. As an example, fogversions are a winter weather phenomenon here, but they can also occur at the time of year we usually call late fall. But it’s a pretty safe bet that early spring (March) fogversions are pretty much nonexistent, with a few special exceptions.

      Late February and early March is another period with multiseasonal characteristics. If the weather is sunny and dry you get springlike conditions, whereas the wet days feel pretty wintry still. Same thing in early September, when fall nights/mornings coincide with summery days/afternoons/evenings.

      I think the four-season system is flawed in many other ways, but now is not the time to go into detail.

  22. Having a gut hunchy feeling thingy that tonight’s 00z EURO may at the least provide some potential…. Not saying it will be golden or anything.

    • W7ENK says:

      Is that hunchy feeling anything like the hunchy feeling I’ve had for almost a week? Is it spreading?? 😀

    • Well I was basing it largely off that ensembles seem to have a marginal signal day past day 10 to shift things west, possibly retrograding positive anomaly into a favorable position. Some members at least have been pretty good. I suppose its just pure speculation.

    • W7ENK says:

      I never claimed mine was anything more than just a feelin’… 🙂

    • 00z EURO(At least my own interpretation) isn’t great. Big cold shot into the great lakes region, and maybe a smidge better ridge orientation for us or more so 500mb pattern which only really leads to a bit colder air moving into eastern Washington and Idaho… Not great.

  23. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    You all should look at Mark’s post from Nov 25th 2008 (I think that post was about 19 days or so from the start of our extended snow event that year), then bring up a new tab and look at the map at the top of this current post. They are both very similar (IMO) just looking for something exiting, and you never know what could happen… 🙂

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Of course things never play out exactly the same, but it is still interesting to see and compare what went on in the weeks prior to the snow events that year.

  24. W7ENK says:

    Okay, having two active posts at once is really confusing, apparently! :facepalm:

    Mark, feel free to clean up my mess over on the “Weather Stations” post… 😦

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I took care of it. So are all the videos over on the GW post? I actually liked all the videos…I’m going to watch myself when I get time.

    • W7ENK says:

      Thanks Mark, and sorry ’bout that. It’s been a loooong day!

      No, I didn’t post them all over on the GW post. Should I? Or should I post them in this active one? It’s your call, I suppose.

      Also, I’d rather it stay a list instead of expanding each of the 15 videos… any suggestions? Or, I guess I could e-mail the list to you and see if you can get it to post properly, what with all your fancy behind the scenes bloggy tools you’ve got at your disposal?

      Either-or.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    WNW 16 mph…

    May need to issue Breeze Warning #1086

  26. I like the ridge placement just a tad better on tonight’s 00z GFS…

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      A couple of steps further to the west and we might be in business 🙂

    • stevied (North Portland ) says:

      Yeah….. ALMOST makes things a little interesting around hrs 180-228 or so

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Is a ridge a good thing, and what is its role in everything?

      Traci

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      A ridge this time of the year typically means dry weather and inversions (cold air and fog in the valleys). With the right mechanism you also get weak to strong off shore flow which clears our the fog and makes it blustery in the east county/metro.

      When a ridge sets up far enough off shore it allows arctic air to spill down the western valleys making us cold and typically clear. When you get a jet steam punching into that with moisture it typically leads to a snow storm.

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Thanks Ryan for the explanation! The way you explained it actually made sense,lol. I guess I will be rooting for the ridge to scoot west a bit more. Thanks again!

      Traci

  27. David B says:

    Can’t always have epic storms, might as well enjoy the weather we actually get, whatever it is.

    I’m looking forward to hiking up Tiger Mountain east of Seattle if an inversion sets in. The contrast between fog and low clouds at low elevations and sunshine and warm, dry air on top would make for an interesting walk.

  28. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Currently 36.5F and light rain….

  29. No worries. Surely active weather will return in time for christmas. Enjoy the sun while you can.

  30. robwaltemate says:

    Big rain drops outside right now NNE of Long Beach WA.
    It started just before 4pm, but only 0.03″ is all
    Temp 46.7
    DP 44.2
    2G10 SSW
    30.19 falling

    When are they going to make a home version of doppler radar that I can put on my roof? LOL

  31. wwm says:

    Thank goodness Mark posted something new.

  32. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Dullsville in the ol’ weather department, eh? Let’s hope it’s just the calm before the mid-December storms. We’ll certainly be due for a pattern change by then.

    Temp: 41.9°
    Dew point: 40°
    Wind: Calm
    Pressure: 30.30″➘

  33. umpire says:

    Hey Mark – think of all the Christmas shopping you can get done with no exciting weather to worry about. Personally, I appreciate at least one more weekend to finish raking up the last dozen or so bags of leaves, and even perhaps get one last lawn mowing in! That will make it nice and neat when we get those 24″ of snow 🙂

  34. o.c.paul says:

    Mark
    This almost exactly the post you made on Dec. 2, 2008
    Prophetic?? I hope so!

  35. Runrain says:

    There is a high wind warning for the Bay Area tomorrow. Sounds like an exciting commute for them in the morning. They freak out even when it simply rains there.

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