A briefly sunny start this morning will quickly turn to a rainy and windy Thanksgiving afternoon. Nice weather system moving in. Check out the snowfall accumulation forecast with this colder system! 10-15″ up on Mt. Hood. And both Hoodoo and now SkiBowl will be open on Friday, so a great start to the ski season.
Enjoy the holiday and hopefully your power stays on! Probably some outages, especially in outlying areas as a southerly rush of wind arrives with the cold front this afternoon. No big deal, but today would be a very inconvenient day to lose your power of course.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Just had a quick questions.
I just checked weather.com and it tells me that we will have snow and rain on Dec. 8th.
Any thoughts on why weather.com is so different then other forecasts such as kptv, koin or any others?
Days 8-10 looking good on GFS ensembles 12Z run…certainly colder looking than run 24 hours ago….would venture guess of 10-20% risk of arctic air impacting at least Washington state by day 10.
@ Ashley Watson,
I’ve lived here for just about a year… I don’t know a whole lot about this area, so I’m not too sure of the circumstances a Basin would require for certain weather elements, or amounts of precip.
But what I have noticed (so far) is when there is strong WSW or Westerly flow with surface cold fronts that bring better amounts of moisture to the Basin. I don’t know exactly what gives us the extremes in a years time though.
I think W7ENK has lived here for better periods of time so he might know a little more than I do about Klamath Falls.
11/28/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
High:61 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & PINE CREEK NEAR(1350 ft)
Low: 48 at AGNESS2(247 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)
High:34 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
Low: 19 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & Umatilla (190 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
PRINEVILLE 4NW (58/25 ) (2840 ft )
0.61″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
F A K E C O L
GFS ensemble mean 500mb charts show a trend for ridging a little farther W with each run, both at 144 and 240h. Likewise, trend is for heights over SE USA to rise a bit with each run, focusing the cold air over the rockies and northern great plains. It might be technically invalid for me to issue the F A K E C O L D watch if 850mb temps may actually be *below* normal.
We could be in for a several day stretch of high temps in upper 30s to low 40s with lows well into the 20s. We are not talking arctic air…yet.
Fake cold leading to a nice, self sustaining cold pool over the Columbia Basin and extended period of chilly east winds. My only concern may be how strong the inversion gets and does it lead to significant east winds….
latest canadian model rides storms over the top of the pacific ridge and slowly retrogrades it. I’m still waiting for the operational gfs to do similar.
hey timmy supercell,
my name is ashley and i live down here in klamath falls. i moved here 3 years ago and was wondering if you know which wind patterns give us the most or least precip. we live in a basin so forecasting the weather is kind of difficult. if you don’t know do you have any idea where i might find out?
Hour 384 looks good. HAHAHAHA!
It might be the beginning of a new trend… It is lala land but if we get an arctic blast it’s gotta show up there first. 😉
00Z GFS hour 384 looks like a mild split-flow pattern to me, definitely not arctic.
While that satellite comparison was surprising, I’m almost hoping we don’t have a 2008 repeat… (I would say otherwise if I still lived in Hillsboro)
Being in this location, above 4,000 ft… 2008 would mean 2-3 ft. accumulations! O_O imagine shovelling THAT much snow
The 22.5″ I had to shovel in east Portland in December 2008 was quite enough, thank you.
A short hike (7.2 miles) up Hamilton Mountain near Cascade Locks in the Gorge. Fog gave way to sun at times during the trip, mainly west of Beacon Rock. Looks like the fog hung on all day in east Vancouver.
Gorgeous (pun intended!) shots, Tyler! I really like the fog layer over the bright water. Reminds me of a dessert at Papa Hayden.
Thanks for sharing.
Mark, what are your thoughts on what Eric was saying about the way the weather has been this fall compared to how it was in 2008 leading up to the snow of the century? I personally don’t think it means anything but I hope it does like everyone else. Two different times, too many variables, and nothing is ever exactly the same. Please respond so I don’t have to go elsewhere where I can be a breathing living person and not get thrown under the rug. Id appreciate your input on this as well Rob.
Before I could even venture a guess at this I would need to examine every upper air chart from November 1st to the 27th during 2008, then compares those to 2011. Otherwise if I were to give any input right now, I would look like a fool.
Those satellite loops that Erik shared did pop my eyes open quite a bit, regardless.
But you are right, we can’t get too much ahead of ourselves or we might all look like fools… lol
Remember above all else, I said this was a feeling. I see the patterns, I see them somewhat matching, I like what I see, but what I said was I had a FEELING… To me, however unscientific that method may be, it’s almost always worked for me — without fail — since I was a kid.
Like I said originally, take that for what it’s worth, probably not much. If I end up looking a fool in a month, Meh… so what. I never said this was written in stone. I said I had a feeling! 🙂
You can’t deny the similarities either. It isn’t a harbinger of what is to come but the possibility of what has happened in the past can’t be discarded.
I’m certainly not holding out hope for a 2008 redux.
Crystal clear, already down to 36F with a little light fog. It could be slick in spots later, so be careful out there folks!
Back to Weather!
Barometer: 30.36 in
TV: Monday Night Football
Beverage: Honey Tea
Hoping tonight’s 00z WRF shows a bit more persistent cold pool developing over the Columbia Basin. C’mon east wind!!!!
Before you think I’m a wimp 😆 The Honey tea(Which is just a 1/2 cup of hot water with a teaspoon of honey stirred in) I’m drinking for my respiratory infection. Seems to really help the throat and congestion. Switching to American Pickers at 6 PM and Pawn Stars at 7! LoL
I drink lots of tea. It’s super healthy and helping me kick the excessive coffee drinking habit. 🙂
Actually, honey in warm milk is nice, but it puts me right to sleep. Actually, just about anything in warm milk puts me right to sleep; Chai, Kahlúa, Rum, Buttershots, Vana Tallinn… 😉
I would love honey and tea, especially for a sore throat. Unfortunately I don’t like honey or tea…
Pressure: 30.46, falling
Bee careful – do you know where your honey comes from?
Dew point: 37°
Throat Coat tea! It works They have it at Freddies in the health food dept. & Safeway the tea section! They have it in regular, Lemon & Einchineca! Get well!
I don’t drink tea either. The last time I did I woke up with a headache from he!! !!!! Oh, does a Long Island count?
Since everyone is wishing so hard to make fun of me I am going to stop posting here as I refuse to serve the lowest common denominator.
This is not for your benefit but for mine because I do not deserve to be treated like crap and thrown under the rug.
I have found other places to be where I can be a living breathing person and be treated with actual respect exchanging discussions and ideas without turning things into a flame war.
Buh bye and may God help you see the errors of your ways. 🙂
Huh? Kyle? Who is making fun of you? I guess I am not following, sorry.
Well, that was random…
You mean because nobody responded quickly your going to throw a fit?
Huh? Makes no sense…Bye
Oh I see his post…. I’ll respond best I can.
We have too many drama queens on this blog. If this blog can ever go a month without someone getting upset and running away like little brats when their feelings get hurt I will be shocked. People need to grow up!
Hey now… it’s a well know fact on this blog that Kyle has a disability. Let’s not all rip into him so hard people. We just work with it, let it go, and move past.
Kyle, it’s all good. Just take your break, we’ll all still be here when you get back, ‘kay? 🙂
Nice article on the upcoming snow storm in the SE US: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/rare-november-snow-south_2011-11-28
Hopefully we will get some snow in town this winter! We really didn’t get anything but a few flurries last year.
If you happen to have clear skies to north after dark tonight…slight chance of auroras. KP index from latest CME has ticked up. Spaceweather.com is website to use.
Hey that would be cool, Paul, thanks for the info.
18Z GFS ensemble mean: colder for the trough over the rockies/midwest at hr 144…ridge just off shore stronger in ensemble mean as well. We could end up with a decent fake cold spell with this..time will tell. I just hope I am not stuck in fog for days on end…sensory deprivation is cruel.
Precursor to cold
I am not trying to bash anybody on here but rather I am very curious as to how possible is for here in Silverton Oregon to ever be affected by a gorge wind?
I know for sure that when you guys are getting blow away that it’s usually butt-cold in the low 20s at night here.
Quite simply you are too far south for the gorge winds to get to your area. You really need to be at the mouth or in the hills to get strong winds.
The cold effect of the gorge can reach much further though with strong off shore flow.
I should note I’m speaking of areas like Gresham, Troutdale, Camas, and the typical spots for gorge wind.
Ya, what Ryan said…. but I think you may get some downslope east-northeast winds in that area? Not sure specifically for your location, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
I would think Silverton would get downslope events ala Battleground.
I spent maybe 7 years of growing up time about 4 miles NE of Silverton, just east of Mt. Angel. I don’t ever remember a gusty east wind…and I mean nothing over 15 mph. So I don’t think they get it in most (or all) parts of the Willamette Valley. Maybe in most of those cases the light northerly gradient keeps it from spreading down into the Valley??? Don’t know.
Remember in 2008, the east wind was blowing strong here of course, then down the valley the winds just turned northerly. I remember seeing north Salem in the snow, while south Salem had more rain and freezing rain.
Yea so what is exactly going on with omsi?
Two words: Political funding.