10am Update: Rain Too Far South

Everything is going MOSTLY according to plan this morning; models did an excellent job showing the front moving down the Coast and cutting off wind north of about Tillamook.

Big problem with the placement of the main rain band.  Here’s the problem, the front (and center of heaviest rain) has been about 50 miles farther south than expected, leaving the heaviest rain band directly over the top of the Metro area.  In 3 hours (ending at 10am) we’ve received 3/4 inch of rainfall here in town.  Another 2 hours of this and we’ll start seeing flooding.  This afternoon the band of heavy rain SHOULD lift north.  If the rain doesn’t back off by noon, WE will be the hotspot for flooding, not up north.  There is no other populated area seeing more rain than we are seeing here.

 COASTAL WIND: Coastal wind is raging south of about Pacific City.  Peak gusts were 60-70 mph most spots, little less than I expected.  The wind did go just about calm from Tillamook up to Astoria; that’s why we sent our television crews to Lincoln City.  Brian MacMillan getting blown away was a great choice for the morning show.  It’ll continue to blow all day long; more of the same.  Probably not any stronger than what we’ve already seen.

METRO WIND:  Hasn’t been too strong (over 40 mph) since the front has been a little closer to us than expected.  So it may pick up some this afternoon as the front lifts north.  Gusts 40-50 still possible.  A few power outages still likely here and there.  Then it’ll go calm late tonight or tomorrow morning as the front finally pushes through.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


156 Responses to 10am Update: Rain Too Far South

  1. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    8:30 am 40 and sunshine

  2. Up to 58.3 here

    Mt. Hebo just gusted to 90mph

  3. Garron says:

    Looks like the main rain band has begun to shift north, Does that meant the winds will pick up again?


    According to the weatherbug site 6 blocks away, I’ve had 2.13″ of rain and literally going up by the minute! Gust from the SSW of 30 mph, temp falling in the last 15 minutes from 56.3 to 55.7

  4. Barometer has fallen to 29.59 in …. This isn’t over yet.

  5. 1.42″ for the day so far. Currently 55. Peak wind yesterday was 26, and today 27…not too windy…

  6. PDX Weather Nut says:

    A brief break here earlier before more heavy rain and breezy conditions. Lots of flooding around town!

  7. Here at my office weather station:
    Temp 62.9°
    Rain 0.24″ since midnight
    Peak Gust of 33mph

    I am the warmer dry side of all this current weather so far.

  8. Emily Waldman says:

    For our Cowlitz County weather folks! There is water over the roadway at the Alpha Dr. & Westside Hwy.(SR411) intersection! Not to be left out, water over Westover Rd. & Lomar Rd. two roads that feed off Nevada Dr. This water over these to roads comes from the culvert that runs behind my house off Nevada Dr. & So. Nevada Dr. Sorry Mother Nature has parked this plume of moisture over Cowlitz County since early am! Rubber Boots & the Ark!

    • Muxpux (Longview) says:

      Crap, I’m up off sandy bend and west side highway. Gonna be making the trip home in a while. Is the road closed or what? I dont wanna take I-5 in this rain.

    • Emily Waldman says:

      @Muxpux no not yet! The county road impact thing shows yellow, water over roadway not closed yet! I’m going to work down Columbia Hgts. Rd. via Cowlitz Way to Grade Street to the mall! We’ll see how flooded Grade Street is! Good Luck!

  9. Muxpux (Longview) says:

    Rain has been steady all day here in castle rock with varying intensity. Last couple hours a bit heavier than most of the day.

    Temp Down to 45.9

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    That is one reason I hardly use Intellicast and Wunder radars. I stick to my GR guns, they get the point more accurately!

    However that won’t stop me from atleast ordering some radar data from NCDC tonight…. I’ll overlook some of it and then upload a couple animations on Tinypic. Then me and Rob will discuss tornadoes/funnels ^_^

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And I already had planned animating KRTX radar images from this morning (heavy rain looked impressive!) so I got a couple homework assignments anyways 🙂

  11. W7ENK says:


    And thus begins the long, cascading string of cancellations…

  12. Tyler @ Yamhill County says:

    Wind and rain picking back up in Yamhill County

  13. 2:15 PM Analysis

    Checking the next wave offshore….. Not overly impressive, but it’s there.

    18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Display

    Has this at 999mb (29.50 in) currently near 40.7 N, 133 W projected to move northeast up into Washington.

    However I found some buoy data to contradict this and shows the wave is a bit stronger.

    Buoy 46002 – 275NM West of Coos Bay OR
    Atmospheric Pressure: 29.40 in(995mb)
    Pressure Tendency: -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
    So, this indicates the wave is 4mb stronger and is still intensifying.

    In response to this both PDX-EUG and PDX-MFR southerly gradients have increased a bit.

    As of 2 PM
    PDX-EUG: -2.5mb | 0.4mb Increase
    PDX-MFR: -8.3mb | 0.8mb Increase
    I would like to see these increase by at least 2mb before I get excited at all.

    18z GFS shows the wave as well but it tracks closer move in a line from Lincoln City to Kelso.

    The gradient does begin to tighten again, but isn’t lined up favorably. So overall due to the next wave and strong wind aloft I don’t think we can entirely rule out increasing winds gusts 40+mph later this evening.

    • One thing I think may help is temps are rising into the upper 50s to near 60 now as the warm front lifts north, so as the wave approaches that could prove interesting.

    • W7ENK says:

      I don’t think there’s much hope for strong winds in the Portland area any more, at least not a sustained period like what was originally forecast. Perhaps just a handful of sporadic, isolated areas where gusts may whip up for a few minutes here and there under the heavier showers. True, this may result in a few small power outages from trees/branches crossing lines and whatnot, but I think that for the most part, the windy part of this storm was fairly overhyped.

      The rain on the other hand was a different story. Some impressive totals around the area today, and that part’s not quite over yet!

    • Brad says:

      A Lincoln City to Kelso track wouldn’t be bad. Who knows maybe it will bomb out.

    • I don’t foresee this undergoing much cyclogensis, but as I mentioned earlier, both 12z WRF 4km wind gust model and cross section indicate winds increase late this evening, so at the least it is practical. The winds aloft do support it. Also there has definitely been a surge in winds the past hour along the central Coast/Coast Range and even Rockhouse 66mph.

    • Emily Waldman says:

      Thank you Rob for heads up for the next onslaught!

  14. Power flickering again…..

  15. Laurie (Sylvan) says:

    A colleague reports Fanno Creek is spilling over and flooding some roads in Tigard.

  16. Uhhhhhh

    Power flickering here…..

  17. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    29:57 now, still dropping. Don’t know if this is info you need for your analysis on things Rob.

  18. OH CRAP! Just saw a possible tornado NE of BG!! Take cover!

  19. Radar showing 3 strong cells out there. Is there still some excitement to be had? We are getting a heavy shower and very blustery winds.

  20. EA_TTD says:

    And after about a 45-minute lull, the heavens have opened up once again in Troutdale. Just dumping out there. Winds kicked up a touch but only gusting to maybe 20 mph very sporadically.

  21. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The Donkeys are wandering about:

    1242 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011


  22. Strong t-storm moving onshore south of Rockaway Beach. Wouldn’t doubt it 70+mph gusts are surfacing… Oh and Lincoln City just gusted to 71mph with this squall as well.

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