Flooding…Is It Finally Our Turn?

Just a moment or two to blog this morning, but what a set of weather maps to wake up to!  For several days we’ve been expecting a frontal zone to set up right over the Pacific Northwest Monday-Wednesday with rain, wind, and mild temps.

Now the last few runs of most of the models have shown this setting up directly over NW Oregon instead of Western Washington.  In fact all the flooding events in the Pacific Northwest the past few winters have been just to our north.  Well now they are showing the flooding rain zone directly over us.  I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the 12z RPM rain totals.  A large swath of 6″ plus totals not only in the Coast Range but Salem to Longview in the lowlands get 4″+ as well.  The 12z WRF-GFS shows 5″+ as well in the same general area.   If this actually occurs, it’ll be our most significant flood threat in many years in the Northern Willamette Valley.  I’ll post again late this evening (real late) on my strong wind thoughts as well.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

164 Responses to Flooding…Is It Finally Our Turn?

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Should be interesting to watch this event happen:

  2. Hmmm Wunderground says it is snowing @ my house LOL

  3. john says:

    how much of the snow pack will this rain melt

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Cherie, that’s a lotta rain if it comes to pass. Can you say break out the life vests?

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=pqr&iname=Active_Screen3L&size=1&force=no

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Ecmwf has 4+” rain for PDX in 72h…..I guess it might just happen.

  6. Up nearly 2 degrees since 9:00….37.1 here with SSE winds…

  7. Josh (Gresham) says:

    ‎00z 4km WRF-GFS Rainfall
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_or_pcp1+%2F%2F%2F1
    Wow.. Looks like NW oregon is gonna be the bullseye.

  8. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    Going on six + hours now of 32.7 degrees. I really should check the thermo to see if it’s actually working :). Seems a little odd to not change in that long of time.

  9. Steve in Salem says:

    So will we have power on Thanksgiving? Glad I am deep frying my turkey. Any thoughts?

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Funny how even in this situation, forecasts call for the chance of rain being NEAR 100 percent. Well, I’m surprised the chance ain’t 200 percent!

    For real, its gonna rain up and down all of western Oregon next 3 days….

  11. Emily Waldman says:

    Well weather.com says 50% of snow tonite in Longview! Between 3am-7am with temps below 30! Whatcha all think?

    • Emily Waldman says:

      Cowlitz County in their infinite wisdom has put deicer done on some roads too! I think I heard things fluttering in the breeze too!

  12. Okay, since Rob is gone, here are my thoughts:

    We awake to rain and breezes picking up. The strongest wind is later morning and midday, then it backs off. Probably gusts 25-35 mph around the metro. The evening could actually be somewhat dry…

    Then early AM Tuesday, the winds pick up again, reaching 40-60 mph on the coast, with some EXPOSED gusts reaching 80-100 mph. I bet Newport and Astoria do see a 65+ mph gust at some point. Hebo will likely be 80+. Cape Disappointment, Sea Lion Caves etc may hit 90-100? The winds die down very quickly from the north.

    In the valley the winds peak later morning to early afternoon again. It pours rain from about 11 pm Monday into early Wednesday. It doesn’t show the band shifting south of PDX until 4-5 AM Wednesday.

    • Yeah, looks like more of a NW Oregon thing which is fine with me since I’m heading to the Siletz for an early morning meeting with a big fish (I hope). I know my *** is gonna get wet but that’s OK if we get into some bright chinook. Hoping the rains hold off.

  13. Wow, the latest WRF shows wind speeds of 75-80 knots on the coast around 7 AM Tuesday. Then by 10 AM, they drop off to the 20 kt range…will be interesting for sure.

  14. Thanksgiving Wind???

    The low isn’t that strong (993 mb) but it sure takes an interesting path…

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_slp+///3

    It will be interesting to see what the models do with that the next few days.

  15. Pretty safe to say we won’t go above the high or below the high through midnight so…

    4th day of the forecast contest, here were the predictions:

    Jesse:
    Sun: 42/24


    Mark:
    
Sun: 45/25


    Actual temps (at PDX):

    High: 45 (1:53 PM)
    Low: 29 (~7AM)

    1 point given for every degree off (least amount of points wins)

    Today:

    Jesse: 8
    Mark: 4

    Running Total:
    Jesse: 30
    Mark: 18

    The forecasts for Monday:

    Jesse:
    Mon: 44/29

    Mark:
    Mon: 47/30

  16. W7ENK says:

    Not weather related (or maybe it is?), but Channels 2, 6 and 8 are all off the air. Power outage in the West Hills?? Getting a head start on storm damage??? 😦

  17. 33.3 here in BG after a high of just 42, my coolest of the fall season so far.

  18. I hate being sick and now I am not going to be able to see 00z WRF or cross section. Good night.

  19. alohabb says:

    Well…i’m supposed to be in Tillamook early Tuesday…guess I’ll bing the video camera and see what i catch! Hopefully HWY 6 doesnt get demolished! They have been trying to take all the trees in danger down, but I guess the wind will help ODOT this week! Man I hope I make it home and dont have to spend the night!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The first blast will finish saturating the ground. The second will take down the trees!

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