Lots of Rain and Cold Air Still On The Way

We’ve got a huge soaking on the way Wednesday!  A very wet warm and cold frontal system is on our doorstep tonight.  This will be by far the wettest storm this Fall both in terms of rainfall and mountain snow.  I think our RPM model (above) is probably a bit wet, and notice the smoothing issue as mentioned in a previous post.  When I read this I usually take that Hillsboro number and consider it to be a metro-wide rainfall.  But 1.50-2.00″ is a real healthy rainfall.

Still looks like 18-24″ total up in the mountains that is here to stay; the result should be at least some minimal skiing this weekend on Mt. Hood.

Okay, so how are snow levels looking?  I still feel a solid 1,500′ for most areas is good, but I’m sure some spots down around 1,000′ will see at least a dusting.  Best chances for that are early Friday morning or Friday evening if a cluster of showers moves through.  Sticking snow is still looking very unlikely at the lowest elevations. 

That said, I bet at least 50% of us will see at least flakes mixed in at some point during the 18 hours Friday 5am-11pm.

A real chilly air mass, coldest so far this Fall by far, moves in late Friday and Saturday.  IF we get good clearing either Friday night or Saturday night, we’ll be way down into the 20s. 

As for that Saturday system?  Looks slightly closer on the 00z runs compared to 00z last night.  The 18z GFS was quite a bit closer to the coastline, but now it’s back to farther offshore.

This isn’t one of those situations where the cold air lingers, it’s back to southerly low-level flow by late Sunday or for sure Monday AM.

Next week looks very rainy and windy.  The 00z GFS has some deep lows close by, and the GEM (Canadian) has them even closer.  More weather action to come…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

95 Responses to Lots of Rain and Cold Air Still On The Way

  1. gidrons says:

    18z is running, it looks warmer so far

  2. Just browsing my weather stations Monthly summary and was surprise to see the average mean temp is only 40F for November.

    Yesterday Mean temp was 34.7 for the day. My highest mean Temp was 45.9F on the 9th.

    So for this month only one days low was above 39.0 (the 13th @41.8F)

    6 days so far below or at 32F for lows and 11 days at 35 or lower for lows (I call those frost in the grass temps).

    This seems like a cold November to me. Right now I am at 38.5 from a low of 29.7F.

    Yes last year we had a real cold stretch in Nov starting the 18th-30th. Even with those super cold nights (12.1 for my low on the 24th last year) the average mean was 40.6 for the month. We are at that now with out any super cold weather. Interesting. Sure we could end the month warm still. But the next 4-7 days look pretty cold.

    this all means absolutely nothing by the way.

    Just below 1000ft lever here in the Scappoose Hills.

  3. 47 now. 7 degrees of warming in an hour…not bad.

    Wind has “gusted” to 13 mph.

  4. NR says:

    Does this whole storm seem like a forecasting miss? Where’s the 1.5 inches coming from?

    • Just saw Mark saying it was way over rated in a post on Fox12 FB site

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      It seems like lately every time a big storm is forecasted, it ends up being about .25” of rain and not much else. Are they just falling apart, missing their target, what? As recently as early this afternoon or late this morning, every forecast i saw still has us on track for tons of rain, including a steady shot of heavy rain. Looking at the radar and satellite, I don’t see that, but maybe that’s why I don’t get paid to forecast the weather? Haha.

    • NR says:

      Just spitballing, but I think the tropical source from near Hawaii hasn’t been caught in the flow like the models predicted.

      It would be interesting if this puts a wrench into the forecasts for cold air this weekend, and the secondary low on Saturday.

    • Ben (Beaverton 775 ft.) says:

      Let’s hope!

  5. After raising only about 0.3 degrees every 15 minutes this morning, the temp has jumped almost 2 degrees in the last 15 minutes.

    The wind which has been NNW all morning has swung around to the ENE.

  6. East wind vs. south wind: 53 in Salem SE wind gusting to 25 mph.

    40 in TTD east wind gusting close to 30 mph

  7. Jclack says:

    Approx a quarter inch of rain at pdx so far… the satellite and radar seem to indicate the front is moving onshore soon… not sure about 1.50 inches of rain with this.. maybe I am not seeing something??

    • Jclack says:

      I suppose that was storm total thru friday.. just looked at the graphic again… still was expecting higher totals thus far today..

  8. Steven From South Salem says:

    Whats the link to the facebook blog?

  9. Jane - Forest Grove says:

    Doesn’t seem very stormy….Did the rain/wind slow down?

  10. SamiJo says:

    Can anyone tell me what elevation downtown of Sandy or the high school is at? Are we at possible snow range?

  11. I’m surprised there isn’t more talk on the 12z GFS. That would bring the snow level down to around 500′ with moisture on Saturday. I would say 1000′ to be cautious, but the model at face value says 500′.

    What will the 18z say?

    • 2 years ago, with a run like that, there would have been a wish-cast-a-plenty.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I made a note on it… Perhaps there isn’t to much chatter because we’ve been seeing the trend for a little while and this just validates it.

      I want to be excited for the 18Z but it is so often the odd ball run.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Nit-picking and bickering have scared off the more sensitive folks. There are a lot more sites to discuss weather than there used to be as well.

      My observation with time, is that the blog is always changing, just like the weather in these parts, won’t have to wait long for it to be different again!

    • Jclack says:

      Its too bad.. I enjoy the blog format as I don’t have time to be logged in on facebook all day while at work.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      The reason why it’s quiet on the blog is because most of us joined the weather group on Facebook 🙂

    • Yeah, I had seen your note on it Ryan, but that’s the only real mention of what it showed I had seen.

      This blog has gotten a little out of hand. There are a select few who bag on those who get excited for the smallest chance of snow/ice/wind. I thought that was what made this blog fun to read / post on. We can all ride the roller coaster of model runs together. There would be 5-6 of us up at night breaking our browsers refresh button while trying to get the latest GFS frame. The best part was, we could post about it without catching flak for wishcasting.

      I guess I’m just sad to see this place not as lively as it used to be. It’s still only November, I’m sure by the time winter reaches full swing we’ll get that go-get-em attitude back in here.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I think it depends on the Troll/nit-picker population, Anthony. When folks are left alone to have fun, you see more people doing so.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      ‎12z GFS sure throws a wrench into things for PDX, with the initial low swinging closer to the coast Friday, and hanging around a bit longer, it shows alot more moisture on Saturday, but temps aloft only around -6c, as the low coming farther onshore would bring a bit warmer air.

      -Extracted data for KTTD shows 0.16″ of moisture in the early morning hours of Saturday, much more than previous runs.

      -HIO shows 0.32″ as well

      -12z NAM showed a similar track for the initial low as well

    • EmzinTigard says:

      I think there are many whom still read the blog still, but maybe don’t comment as much. What Facebook group are you talking about?

    • EmzinTigard says:

      Oops.. one too many stills..

    • Yeah, I’m sure it is a matter of time that I get harassed for merely interpreting the models(not even making a forecast), or showing an ounce of enthusiasm towards possible exciting weather. Which to me would be the great Alaska cold wave next week with a massive PV and a powerful jet possible storm storm pattern for us.

    • Developing after the 21st that is.

    • Wind storm* .. No sleep is really getting me.

    • Jory (Sandy) says:

      I agree… what Facebook group are you guys referring to? The Fox weather site doesn’t show any detailed, in depth discussions by everyone, and neither does Mark’s page. (other then his own)

    • W7ENK says:

      Anthony, I’m not entirely in favor of some of the wordage you used there. I believe you have a mix-up in context.

      If I may respectfully disagree: No one is “bag(ging) on those who get excited for the smallest chance of snow/ice/wind”. Some of us (myself included) prefer to take a more level-headed, non emotional approach to analyzing the models. It keeps our heads clear and our eyes wide open. Sure, that may be driven by past disappointment, but I’ve found it to be far easier on the soul to stay skeptical, avoid the details in the long range, and ride the models slowly rather than jump in head first and hang on every last frame the models spit out. I see absolutely nothing wrong with my approach, and yet in doing so, I’m the one who gets accused of being pessimistic and emotionally attached to the models… which is funny, because those pointing the finger are usually the ones who get themselves emotionally vested, evidenced by the way they seem to get all butt-hurt when things don’t pan out in their favor. Us slow riders then have to sit back, scratch our hears and wonder what in the world is going through people’s minds, and why we’re still told we’re wrong, even well after our original analysis verifies. It’s almost like there’s some unwritten rule that says if you disagree with or state anything contrary to the mass hysteria, you’re automatically wrong, no matter what. THAT is probably the most discouraging thing about this blog, at least for me.

      Now, if you must flame me again, by all means be my guest. But please bear in mind that I’m not attacking anyone, direct nor covertly, I’m simply stating my opinion – which the last time I checked I have a right to do. Mark hasn’t told me otherwise… not yet at least.

    • chris s says:

      I took the 12z to be the warmest run out of the past 4-5 model runs, maybe that has something to do with it. More moisture to work with but 850 temps yesterday were around -8, now the best case scenario is -6c, which just is not good enough for snow at the lowest levels i dont think.

    • MamaReen says:

      Pretty sure it’s the random fights/name calling that goes on, at least it is for me. Would rather talk about weather…

    • Garron says:

      I got tired of the models flopping 3 days ( or less) out, as well as the bickering as well last year. I just skip the insanity when it rears its head on here, or “BLOGERA” blog soap opera, and stick to GOLU model riding. It’s a little like model riding on the handle bars of a motorcycle at 80 mph. A lot less disappointment when it doesn’t snow, and a lot more fun IF it does pan out.

    • ? Funny… Anthony never mentioned your name, Erik(W7). Anyhow.

    • W7ENK says:

      No, but the writing is on the wall… and I wasn’t referring to you, in case you were wondering. 🙂

  12. Record low at Fairbanks this morning -35. The old record was -33.
    http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=CDAK49PAFG&type=public

  13. …snow was mixed in the rain this morning at 33.2…now it’s 35.2 and all cold rain…

  14. Muxpux (Longview) says:

    39 and pouring here. No snow showing up on the mt st Helen’s (3k) or govvy (4k) webcams

  15. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    12Z GFS sure did get my attention…

  16. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Bottomed out at 29.7 at 3:17am, it was 33F by 7am, and 35.8 by 8:45am, but now it’s seemed to have really slowed down, it’s currently stil 35.8F…

  17. Snow!

    live.gorge.net/gorgelive.asp

    Hood River

  18. NR says:

    12z run is slightly different with a much faster follow up storm on Monday sweeping out any remaining cold air.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      It also dumps a lot of the hints of staying cold in the long term as well… No m ore 520’s for thickness or -4C to -6C temps.

  19. k5mitch says:

    .16 so far
    40.1F

  20. Cap - Hood River says:

    A little light snow falling in Hood River.

  21. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    So, where’s all the rain? Looking at the radar, it looks like it’s going to be dry here soon for a while.

  22. Austin(Cornelius) says:

    Bwahahahaha!!!! > : )
    I see snow when I look straight up in the sky and focus really hard! 😀

  23. If I believe the 1.3km mm5 GFS 00z, there would be plenty of snowflakes by Thursday evening here, with over 2″ on 24 HR. Question is, will it be cold enough to stick? Yeah, it’s marginal.

  24. Tyler Mode says:

    Rain and 35 this am

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    East winds are greeting the incoming activity:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=D6193&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

  26. Pippin says:

    Snow Falling currently mixed in with some rain north and north east of Salem (I’m sure it won’t last long once that warm front pushes even closer)

  27. Triforce says:

    I haven’t read anything on here yet but I want to mention that from downtown Silverton and northwards there was a massive power outage that began Sunday evening around 6:30-7pm and lasted to shortly after 12am.

    I went to the downtown theater Monday evening to see *Puss in Boots* (which is a very good film) and asked the only worker how busy it was Sunday night which is when I found out they canceled the showing due to no power and had to lock up in the dark. 😦

    That’s right! They actually had to cancel the premier and went home early which is VERY unusual for our little theater to have to do that.

    Does anyone know the cause of the outage as it did not effect us here in this end of the town one little bit.

    • Molly in silverton says:

      It was a transformer at Oak and Third.

      I’m surprised Stu doesn’t have a generator for backup! Hopefully the power will not go out Thursday night with the Twilight movie premiering!

  28. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Hats off to the people plowing the roads in the Cascades. They’ve got their work cut out for them!

  29. bgb41 says:

    11/15/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at DW1265 Newport( 164 ft) & KB7QWZ Garibaldi(10 ft)
    Low: 49 at CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:17 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 4 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (46/9 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.58″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.57″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  30. Current Temps: Fairbanks -33 Anchorage 9

  31. W7ENK says:

    So it’s gonna rain, huh? FOX 12 is seriously lacking here, Mark. Where’s the BREAKING WEATHER ALERT!!!!? Where’s the 24/7 scroller?!?!?

    KATU is WAAAAAAY ahead of you Fox-Folk!

    Cats and dogs, people… CATS and DOGS!!! 😯

  32. Yevpolo1990 says:

    My forecast:
    Thu: 47/40
    Fri: 40/30
    Sat: 40/26
    Sun: 39/25
    Mon: 46/30

    I also call for trace to 1 inch of snow on the valleys in PDX area.

    Yea I called for a little bit of snow yesterday, crappy euro 00z run but I will still go with it.

  33. What time does the rain come in tomorrow?

  34. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Sounds awesome! Thanks Mark!!!!!!!

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