“Normal” November Arrives This Weekend

November 10, 2011

Today was great…sunshine, light wind, and high temperatures just under the 60 degree mark.  However, a bit strange for November.  If you’ve lived here long you know it just “isn’t right” for it to be so bright on a November day!

We won’t have to wait long for a change; a sharp cold front moves through SW Washington and NW Oregon later Friday.  This will be one of those times where a dramatic airmass change occurs.  The freezing level drops from 8,000′ to around 3,000′ between 4pm and 10pm Friday evening.  That plus a brief period of strong westerly wind at mountain pass elevations means a quick dump of snow.  After showers early Saturday, a 2nd, juicier system drops in Saturday afternoon.  A 3rd system comes through Monday, a 4th on Wednesday, another Friday…etc.

The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive with cold air, but now the GFS says snow levels drop down to below 2,000′ after next Wednesday as well.  Lots of snow coming to the Cascades.  Check out the 00z ECMWF 500mb chart for next Friday morning:

This pattern is perfect for very heavy snow in the Cascades.  The strong westerly flow runs right into the mountains, squeezing out plenty of precipitation.

The screaming message is…cool and wet November weather is just around the corner, in fact a bit cooler than normal.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

A Note on Model Riding

November 10, 2011

There was discussion about “model riding” on the previous post.  For the newbies…model riding is watching each run of a model; “riding” all it’s changes.   Since some models come out up to four times a day, a weather geek can easily go into emotional highs and lows as arctic blasts, snowstorms, and windstorms appear and disappear in each run.    A great comment by Silent Reader appeared today on the previous post.  So good that I want to give it much better exposure:

I don’t think it is the model riding on 10 days out that is annoying.

It’s the model riding at 10 days out, then it busts, repeatedly, and the sensitive people are depressed and want to move and make claims of how the winter is over before it starts. Then claim that we “deserve” the goods that last time and the weather gods somehow spite them. Then the trolls lock on to the sensitive, start picking on them and all he_ll breaks loose.

Then repeat many many times.

That stuff most certainly gets old. None of that is fun to read nor is something most weather geeks look forward too.

It’s fun to model ride. Just silly to actually be emotionally all-in. It’s a constant setup for depression for the overly weather sensitive.

What I hope, this year, is some of us can be less sensitive when it comes to those that have opposed thoughts. Most importantly never feed the trolls or respond to them in the first place.

Nothing worse than coming to the blog because of some exciting weather to find out the last 200 posts are about b*tching and whining and wanting so and so banned. That makes everyone look bad. I simply scroll past the bad. Find the good and then remember those that have negative comments so that in the future I can just pass by their comments. if I don’t read them I can not be affected by them.

I agree; the arguing that started even just today shouldn’t continue all winter (as it did last winter).  Look at long range models for what they  are…a meteorological sugar high when a big event shows up.  But don’t get all cranky and take it out on others when things don’t pan out.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen