Tuesday Night Update: Very Nice Days Ahead!

 

A real slow evening in the weather center; but it gave me some extra time to work on weather graphics.  That includes this one.  Anyone who follows weather closely here in the Pacific Northwest shouldn’t be surprised that most La Nina winters produce a very healthy Cascade snowpack.  In fact 12 of the last 13 moderate to strong La Nina events have given us well above average snowfall up at Government Camp (4,000′).

The short term forecast is sure looking nice.  Easterly flow will gradually lower our dewpoints the next 48 hours while a split in the upper-level flow in the Eastern Pacific keeps us mainly dry through Friday.  Tomorrow we could still see a shower like we did today, but models are indicating little or no mid-upper level cloud cover Thursday and Friday.  Combine that with a drying atmosphere down below and we could actually have some mild temps PLUS sunshine both of those days.  Because of that I kept Thursday’s high temp at 60 degrees.

The pattern shifts over the weekend into one with an upper level ridge in the eastern Pacific with systems sliding down over us from the northwest.  That’s a cool pattern, but if the ridge is too close, not a real wet pattern.  Each model has been different Monday and beyond, with the operational ECMWF one of the coldest solutions still for Tuesday-Wednesday.  I do finally expect some decent mountain snowfall Sunday-Monday.

The strong system shown on models for this coming Saturday just two nights ago is gone.  Actually it was gone only 12 hours later but I was too busy to blog yesterday afternoon.

The threat of really cold weather (snow down well below 2,000′) is gone for now too.  Although last night’s 6z GFS showed an arctic blast at about 320 hours…yes only 13 days away.  But one can expect 10-15 day maps to flip around from day-to-day.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

169 Responses to Tuesday Night Update: Very Nice Days Ahead!

  1. 18z GFS Ensembles
    (Remember, to view images simply copy/paste the link into your browser)

    6-10 Day 500mb Height Anomalies

    11-15 Day 500mb Height Anomalies

    6-10 Day 850bm Temp Anomalies

    11-15 Day 850bm Temp Anomalies

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    At times like this, when its just the mostly cloudy November days in Portland, and the very boring sunny November days in Klamath Falls, we pretty much have nothing better to do than ride models out to the latest hour, even if we are talking about ‘months’ ahead.

    Of course at hr 240, that would be rediculous anticipating anything signicant, but we love discussing the possibilities of what ‘could’ occur. We never expect anything to happen.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      The word ‘signicant’ should have been translated to significant

      Sorry!

    • sorry but i don’t model ride anymore =)

      if its not on mark’s forecast, i don’t believe it!!!

    • Awww, Laura, come back to the dark side.. It’ll be okay!

    • W7ENK says:

      Now, there you go! Laura, you’re my kinda gal! 😆

      Honestly, it’s not the model riding that gets me so much, it’s the overly excited anticipation of whats out there at the end, and then watching the terrible crush when the whole thing fails. I’m not one to get emotionally vested in the models until it’s right at our fingertips (and even then, we got burned 3 times!), but it pains me to watch all the rest of you have the life squeezed from your hopes and dreams, seeing it drain away, out of your sparkly little eyes (figuratively speakin, of course). It’s almost like – have you ever seen a child’s face in the brief few moments after their toy balloon pops? That second and a half of discovery and realization between “What just happpened?” and the wailing that follows? That’s what I don’t like to witness. The model ride itself is fine, it’s the huge collective letdown at the end – over and over and over again – and I don’t understand why, after such a terrible winter last year, everyone is setting themselves up for the same thing, yet again.

      Ride away, my weather friends! Just do so with caution, and don’t take everything you see at hour 240 as gospel, that’s all I’m trying to convey, just a little word of caution.

      I hope we all understand each other now?

  3. Austin(Cornelius) says:

    In response to w7: but the reason I wanted to name it was to give it a “title” so that it’s not named “500mb” or something. I enjoy it.
    Next system will be named after you, since you have a W in your name.

    • Austin(Cornelius) says:

      So, if you can…or someone give me a list of everyone that comes on the blog while i’m gone? Email it to me at arcstill94@yahoo.com. I’ll put it in alphabetical order. I will be gone till Sunday, blog you all then!!!! 🙂

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