Annual Winter Weather Meeting THIS Saturday

It’s time kids; the largest Oregon Chapter AMS meeting of the year.  It’s the 19th Annual Winter Weather Meeting.  Here’s a slightly edited official press release:

Regional Experts Will Once Again Descend On Portland To Predict This Coming Winter’s Weather!

Saturday, October 29th, 10:00am, OMSI Auditorium

La Nina is coming back again! Last winter saw record setting snowfall at several mountain locations across the Pacific Northwest as well as multiple snowfalls in bothPortland andSeattle. Will this winter be a repeat? TheOregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is proud to announce the 19th annual “Winter Weather Forecast Conference” inPortland. This year’s event will once again be held at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), located at1945 S.E. Water Avenue inPortland on Saturday, October 29th 2011 from 10 AM to 3 PM inside OMSI’s auditorium. As always, the conference is free and open to the general public. The year’s meeting has been expanded to include an exciting / new afternoon session. The Oregon AMS will also be raffling off a $300Davis home weather station. You will need to be present in order to win. Raffle tickets will be on sale at the conference. Parking at OMSI will be free. Video and still cameras will be allowed, however bulky tripods are discouraged due to an expected capacity crowd. In keeping with tradition, regional news media is again encouraged to advance and cover this event.

This year’s expanded rundown is as follows:

Morning “winter weather forecast” session 10am-12pm

Opening comments / welcome – Steve Pierce, President Oregon AMS

OMSI update – Jim Todd

Last year’s weather recap – Mark Nelsen, Chief Meteorologist, KPTV Ch.12 Portland

1st Winter Forecast – Pete Parsons, Meteorologist, Oregon Department of Forestry

2nd Winter Forecast – Dave Elson, Meteorologist, NOAA / National Weather Service

3rd Winter Forecast – Kyle Dittmer, Meteorologist / Hydrologist, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

4th Winter Forecast – Jim Little, Meteorologist, Oregon Department of Forestry

5th Winter Forecast – George Taylor, Meteorologist / Former Oregon State Climatologist, Retired

Audience Q&A

Lunch break for all conference attendees from 12-1pm. Exact timing of the lunch break is subject to slight modification. A no host lunch is available in the OMSI food court.

*NEW* afternoon session 1-3pm

* Special AMS raffle @ 1pm. You must be present in order to win this great weather-related item, valued at nearly $300. Raffle tickets will be available during the lunch break in the OMSI auditorium.

1st Speakers – Jeremiah Pyle and Shawn Weagle – Meteorologists, NOAA / National Weather Service. Topic: Introduction to the exciting / new dual-polarization technology upgrade to our local radars in Southwest Washington (new coastal radar) and Northwest Oregon (Portland radar).

2nd Speaker – Wolf Read – PhD candidate, Forest Science, University of British Columbia. Topic: Diminished windstorm frequency and possible association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime shift of 1976-77.

3rd Speaker – Thyra Bishop – Meteorologist / Lieutenant Colonel, Oregon National Guard. Topic: Combat meteorology. An overview of the Air Force weather career field and how combat meteorologists impact the military decision making process.

4th Speaker – Chuck Wiese – Meteorologist. Topic: Human caused climate change? A real look at the physics and evidence. A demonstration of the lack of evidence both empirically and physically, of human caused climate change.

Weather Related Vendors

George Miller – Author, retired meteorologist and Oregon AMS executive councilor; “Pacific Northwest Weather: But My Barometer Says Fair” and “Lewis andClark’s Northwest Journey: Weather Disagreeable.”

Columbia Weather Systems – Weather Equipment and Software Sales – Martha Khoury, Oregon AMS member

2012 Weather Photography Calendars – Tyler Mode, Oregon AMS member

“Depiction” GIS Mapping Software – Tim Goddard

Conference adjourns @ 3pm

Oregon AMS web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon
Oregon AMS on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/OregonAMS
Oregon AMS on Twitter: http://twitter.com/oregonams
OMSI web site: http://www.omsi.edu/

As you can see, I don’t forecast (do you think I’m nuts???), but like to look back at the past year.  I just finished that presentation over the weekend and one of the “slides” is above.  Hopefully I’ll see a bunch of you there; I’ll be in the back most of the time selling the weather system raffle tickets.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

52 Responses to Annual Winter Weather Meeting THIS Saturday

  1. Erin says:

    Can you do a re-cap on your blog of what was “predicted” I wasn’t able to attend! Thanks 🙂

  2. What’s up with the online 7 day? Hasn’t changed since Sunday.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Looks cool for first part of November:

  4. Tyler Mode says:

    Dropped to 31 even here.

    Down to 48.9 now.

  5. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Currently 46.9

    Low this morning 35.6

  6. EmzinTigard says:

    I’m looking forward to Saturday as well! 😀

  7. Garron says:

    I have a prediction….

    I’m gonna win that Davis weather instrument!!!!

  8. 33.3 for this morning’s low here with light fog.

  9. 30.8° here this morning with heavy frost.

  10. boringlarry says:

    …first freeze here, 29.7 this morning…

  11. WWM says:

    33 on my temp, but grass and roofs are all white. Yee-haw that should help grass to go dormant.

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Wind chill test…will water freeze with a 33F air temp and a 500mph wind? Get your answer here:

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/10/truth-about-wind-chill.html

  13. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Anyone know why the temperature has gone up the last couple of hours? Usually, the coldest point of the day is just before sunrise. I think I was at 34 and some change and now I’m at 38.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Joshua, from what I can see here in Beaverton, it looks like some low clouds are moving into the area and they will trap the heat in that was radiating out. Probably mixing up the inversion as well.

    • o.c.paul says:

      Too much moisture in the air. Some areas even have fog this morning. The drier the air, the colder it can get.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Cool. Thanks guys! I was excited to get below freezing- maybe tonight!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I didn’t make freezing either. Was down to 35 when the low clouds came in and popped it up to 39.

    • W7ENK says:

      Unless it dipped lower after I left the house this morning, looks like I bottomed out at 38 ‘n change. Probably good, considering the blanket I threw over the avocado last night wouldn’t stay put and had fallen off overnight! 😦

    • john from gram(el-600 feet) says:

      well not to brang but i made it down to 29

  14. PaulB/Eugene says:

    ECMWF 00z has first arctic (at least sort of) airmass of season by Nov 7 with 850 temps below -10C at Pendleton.

    6z GFS has trend toward G of AK ridge

    Arctic chance 10% in next two weeks
    High wind warning chance in next two weeks 2% except at Crown Point where it is 10%

    • W7ENK says:

      That’s about as exciting as a big Belgian waffle, with whipped cream, strawberries and chocolate chips… dusted with powdered sugar, slopped with a half gallon of pure maple syrup and topped with a cherry! And SPRINKLES!!! 😆

      Actually, some meteorological variety will be nice.

    • john from gram(el-600 feet) says:

      just courious where can you find that out if you can post a site that would be cool thanks

  15. Tyler Mode says:

    32 here, first freeze of the season!

  16. bgb41 says:

    10/24/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 51 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & DW6842 Gold Beac(449 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 16 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 36 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (52/16 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.08″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)
    0.07″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)

  17. W7ENK says:

    I’ll be there, 1080p HD video camera running, with tripod (off to the side and out of the way, of course) and occasionally working my employer’s table… maybe… I think? I haven’t heard anything from anyone since I connected them with Steve… We’ll see what happens.

    • Steve Pierce says:

      Your employer never contacted us.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hmm… that would explain why I never heard anything more about it then. Odd, they sounded so eager when I contacted the people that handle that sort of thing and forwarded over your e-mail, Steve. Well, that’s just one less thing I’ll have to worry about on Saturday then! Frees me up to work the camera. Unfortunately now, I could have volunteered to help you with setup or something. Oh well. I’ll still be there early, so if you need an extra set of hands… 🙂

  18. Austin(Cornelius) says:

    I’m having dreams/”visions” of snowy days, I am part Irish(said to have the ability to tell the future, in this case…”to predict”.)

  19. Just did a 25 second exposure looking north, and you can see a glow, but that’s about it for now…hope it gets brighter!

  20. runrain says:

    Chilly out there. I am not ready for this!!

    Record high of 80 in Denver today. Tomorrow they are expecting snow!

    I see on Twitter that people are seeing the northern lights tonight from New York down to Kentucky and even Arkansas. Wonder why/if we will see them here.

  21. Steve Pierce says:

    I am looking forward to seeing everyone this Saturday at OMSI! Some lucky person is going to walk away with a $300 Davis weather station (provided they buy a raffle ticket of course). I also got a quick look at the forecasts submitted so far and here is the best “tease” I can give you — “2008 Redo?” If that does not wet your tongue, nothing will! 🙂 More details this Saturday morning at OMSI! You wont want to miss this one! Also, dont forget the afternoon session as well, packed with great speakers! I cant wait to hear from Wolf Read and the others.

    Steve

    • W7ENK says:

      Steve, you’re incorrigible! Analogs suggest a 2008 redux, but that’s just mean!!!

      That doesn’t mean my fingers aren’t crossed…

    • lauriesylvan says:

      For the love of god, no 2008 redux, please… at least not during Christmas week.

      I was living out of state that year and missed it, and it was fun watching the morning news online from afar because I didn’t have to deal with it.

  22. PaulB/Eugene says:

    The most tie-able or breakable record low for tomorrow morning ironically may end up being PDX’s record low of 34 in 2002…EUG’s record is 28….it is awfully clear this evening with much lower dew points…perhaps even that could be reached.

  23. Josh in Puyallup says:

    Myth?

    People say count the number of foggy mornings in October and that’s the amount of snow “events” we’ll end up with during the winter.

    I’m doing this experiment for shoots and giggles. So far here in Puyallup we’ve had 3-4 really foggy mornings. 1 day we were stuck in the fog all day. I don’t know if that makes any difference. Just curious as to what other people think.

    Anyone else do this experiment before?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Portland averages probaby 8+ foggy mornings in October, so that wouldn’t work too well here. But fun to count anyway.

    • W7ENK says:

      I used to think there was a correlation between foggy fall evenings/nights and snow days or inches of snow over the winter. I’ve since found that theory to be inaccurate if not completely bunk.

      I only wish!

  24. So you all want to know if it’s going to snow this year and I can tell you YES. It will snow between December 17th and the 25th. Why? Because I’m on a cruise that week and mother nature is evil that way.

  25. I’ll be there, and I’ll be there early and late! Come buy a calendar, and if not, just come say hi! It’s cool to meet people from the blog!

    Fog this AM at BG, then it was partly cloudy all day.

    On the way home there was some rain falling though out of one lone cloud.

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